Future NATO looks at the challenges facing NATO in the 21st century and examines how the Alliance can adapt to ensure its continued success
For more than 70 years, the North Atlantic Alliance has helped to preserve peace and stability in the Euro-Atlantic area. It has been able to adjust to varying political and strategic challenges. We must ensure that NATO continues to be effective in the future. This requires looking ahead, challenging habitual approaches, exchanging ideas, and advancing new thinking. I highly recommend Future NATO to policymakers, military professionals and scholars alike, as it offers necessary critical and constructive analysis of current and future challenges posed to our security and defence.Annegret Kramp-Karrenbauer, Minister of Defence, Germany
Since 1949, NATO has successfully upheld common principles and adapted to new realities. As Future NATO examines, the Alliance is facing a new set of external and internal challenges in the decades to come. The Alliance and its partners need to remain committed to future changes. I recommend this excellent study to all, but especially to the younger generation of scholars and future policymakers. Trine Bramsen, Minister of Defence, Denmark
Over the last 70 years, Europe has lived in peace and prosperity because of NATO, with unity as our most important weapon. We may have our differences, but we will continue to work on our common cause to promote peace, security and stability. To effectively do so, NATO needs to continuously adapt to changing security situations. An important current challenge is to ensure European Allies take more responsibility for their security. But we also need to look at future challenges and find innovative solutions for them. Future NATO offers a useful analysis that can help us prepare for what is to come for the Alliance. Ank Bijleveld, Minister of Defence, The Netherlands
Table of Contents
Introduction: An Alliance for the 21st Century John Andreas Olsen
I. NATO’s Enduring Relevance Svein Efjestad and Rolf Tamnes
II. Permanent Deterrence and US Military Presence in Europe Alexander R Vershbow and Philip M Breedlove
III. NATO as a Partner Malcolm Chalmers
IV. The Evolution of the Russian Threat to NATO Andrea Kendall-Taylor and Jeffrey Edmonds
V. NATO’s China Challenge Janka Oertel
VI. NATO and its Southern Flank Ziya Meral
VII. NATO’s Maritime Domain Keith Blount and James Henry Bergeron
VIII. Maintaining NATO’s Technological Edge Tim Sweijs and Frans Osinga
IX. NATO’s Nuclear Posture and Arms Control Corentin Brustlein
X. The Need for the Alliance to Adapt Further Heinrich Brauss
John Andreas Olsen is a Colonel in the Royal Norwegian Air Force, currently assigned to London as Defence Attaché to the UK and Ireland.
He is a non-resident Senior Fellow of the Mitchell Institute of Aerospace Studies, Washington, DC. His previous assignments include tours as Director of Security Analyses in the Norwegian Ministry of Defence; Deputy Commander and Chief of the NATO Advisory Team at the NATO Headquarters, Sarajevo; Dean of the Norwegian Defence University College; and Head of the College’s Division for Strategic Studies. Olsen is
a graduate of the German Command and Staff College and has served both as liaison officer to the German Operational Command in Potsdam and as military assistant to the Norwegian Embassy in Berlin. He has a
Doctorate in History and International Relations from De Montfort University, a Master’s degree in Contemporary Literature from the University of Warwick and a Master’s degree in English from the
University of Trondheim. He was a Visiting Professor at the Swedish National Defence University from 2008 to 2019.
Dr Olsen has lectured worldwide, received several awards and published many books. His recent publications have included Airpower Reborn: The Strategic Concepts of John Warden and John Boyd (2015); NATO and the North Atlantic: Revitalising Collective Defence (2017); Airpower Applied: US, NATO and Israeli Combat Experience (2017); The Routledge Handbook of Air Power (2018); and Security in Northern Europe: Deterrence, Defence and Dialogue (2018).