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Geotechnical Slope Analysis
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Book Description
Freshly updated and extended version of Slope Analysis (Chowdhury, Elsevier, 1978). This reference book gives a complete overview of the developments in slope engineering in the last 30 years. Its multidisciplinary, critical approach and the chapters devoted to seismic effects and probabilistic approaches and reliability analyses, reflect the distinctive style of the original. Subjects discussed are: the understanding of slope performance, mechanisms of instability, requirements for modeling and analysis, and new techniques for observation and modeling. Special attention is paid to the relation with the increasing frequency and consequences of natural and manmade hazards. Strategies and methods for assessing landslide susceptibility, hazard and risk are also explored. Moreover, the relevance of geotechnical analysis of slopes in the context of climate change scenarios is discussed. All theory is supported by numerous examples.
''...A wonderful book on Slope Stability....recommended as a refernence book to those who are associated with the geotechnical engineering profession (undergraduates, post graduates and consulting engineers)...'' Prof. Devendra Narain Singh, Indian Inst. of Technology, Mumbai, India
''I have yet to see a book that excels the range and depth of Geotechnical Slope Analysis... I have failed to find a topic which is not covered and that makes the book almost a single window outlet for the whole range of readership from students to experts and from theoreticians to practicing engineers...'' Prof. R.K. Bhandari, New Delhi, India
Table of Contents
1 Aims and overview – slopes, geology and materials
 1.1 Introduction
 1.2 Overview of recent developments and trends
 1.2.1 Increasing frequency and impact of disasters from slope failures and landslides
 1.2.2 Climate change, global warming and sea level rise
 1.2.3 Built slopes – lessons from the catastrophic impacts of Hurricane Katrina
 1.2.4 New developments related to slope analysis
 1.2.5 Importance of probabilistic analysis
 1.2.6 GISbased methods and analyses
 1.2.7 Assessments concerning very large landslides
 1.2.8 Landslide frequency related to magnitude
 1.2.9 Assessing regional landslide susceptibility and hazard
 1.2.10 Development and use of slope stability software
 1.2.11 Need to strengthen the fundamentals of geomechanics and slope analysis
 1.3 Main aim and scope of this book
 1.4 Aims of geotechnical slope analysis
 1.5 Natural slopes – regional and sitespecific analyses
 1.6 Natural slopes – factors affecting stability
 1.7 Built slopes, unreinforced and reinforced
 1.7.1 Unreinforced slopes
 1.7.2 Reinforced slopes
 1.8 Geomorphology and slopes
 1.9 Types of slope movement and landslides
 1.9.1 Processes and types of slope movement
 1.9.2 Prefailure and postfailure movements
 1.9.3 Failures of slopes in poorly compacted fill
 1.9.4 Some observed data concerning magnitude of movements in soil and rock slopes
 1.9.5 Rainfall as a triggering factor for slope failures or for the occurrence of landslides
 1.9.6 Available methods for seepage analysis
 1.10 Geology and slopes
 1.10.1 Fabric
 1.10.2 Geological structure
 1.10.3 Geological structure and tendency of slope movement
 1.10.4 Ground water
 1.10.5 Seismic effects
 1.10.6 Ground stresses or ‘initial’ stresses
 1.10.7 Weathering
 1.10.8 Previous landslide activity
 1.11 The nature of soils
 1.12 The nature of rocks
Appendix to chapter 1
2 Basic geotechnical concepts
 2.1 Introduction
 2.2 Stress and strain
 2.2.1 Elastic (recoverable) stresses and strains in soil and rock
 2.2.2 Irrecoverable strains in soil and rock
 2.3 The principle of effective stress in soil and rock
 2.3.1 Saturated soil
 2.3.2 Unsaturated soil
 2.3.3 Different types and sources of pore water pressure
 2.3.4 Reservoir filling and artesian pressures – an example, the 1963 Vaiont slide
 2.4 Shear strength of soils
 2.4.1 Dry or saturated soils
 2.4.2 Unsaturated soils
 2.4.3 Slope failures involving unsaturated soil slopes
 2.4.4 Factors influencing shear strength parameters
 2.4.5 Measurement of shear strength under different drainage conditions
 2.4.6 Peak, ultimate and residual shear strength
 2.4.7 Factors influencing residual shear strength
 2.4.8 Undrained strength of fissured clays
 2.5 MohrCoulomb criterion in terms of principal stresses and stress path concept
 2.5.1 Stress paths
 2.5.2 Failure plane inclination and intermediate principal stress
 2.5.3 Coulomb failure criterion for compression and extension tests
 2.6 Shear strength of rocks
 2.6.1 A rock mass as a discontinuum
 2.6.2 Example of the importance of discontinuities in rock – the occurrence of catastrophic landslides
 2.6.3 Griffith theory of rock fracture
 2.6.4 Shear failure along rough discontinuity
 2.6.5 Continuity of jointing and actual area of contact
 2.6.6 Curved strength envelopes
 2.6.7 Strength of filled discontinuities
 2.6.8 Shear strength of closely jointed or fractured rock
 2.6.9 Determination of shear strength
 2.7 Plasticity and related concepts
 2.8 Excess pore water pressures
 2.9 Relationships between drained and undrained strength of cohesive soils
 2.9.1 Unique wpq relationships at peak and ultimate strength
 2.9.2 Undrained strength and pore pressure parameterat failure
 2.9.3 Relative magnitude of drained and undrained strength
 2.9.4 "φ 0" concept
 2.9.5 Anisotropy of shear strength
 2.10 Progressive failure of slopes
 2.11 Residual strength and other factors in progressive failure
 2.12 Progressive failure and the stress field
 2.13 Numerical examples
3 Performance indicators and basic probability concepts
 3.1 Introduction and scope
 3.1.1 Preliminary decisions concerning type of analysis
 3.1.2 Choice of performance indicators
 3.1.3 Contents of this chapter
 3.2 Deterministic approach
 3.2.1 Global and local factors of safety
 3.2.2 Critical seismic coefficient as alternative to factor of safety
 3.2.3 Progressive failure and system aspects
 3.2.4 Performance indicators for stressdeformation analyses
 3.2.5 Threshold or allowable values of factor of safety
 3.3 Probabilistic approach
 3.3.1 Uncertainties and the probabilistic framework
 3.3.2 Systematic uncertainties and natural variability of geotechnical parameters
 3.4 Reliability index, probability of failure and probability of success (reliability)
 3.5 Considering thresholds – minimum reliability index, maximum probability of failure
 3.6 Spatial, temporal and system aspects
 3.7 Susceptibility, hazard and risk
 3.8 Further comments on geotechnical uncertainties
 3.8.1 Introduction
 3.8.2 Basic statistical parameters
 3.8.3 Variability of soil properties and errors
 3.9 Variance of F for simple slope problems
 3.10 Using probabilistic analysis
 3.10.1 Requirements and limitations: discussions during early phase of development
 3.10.2 Example of a probabilistic slope study, De Mello (1977)
 3.10.3 Errors and probability of failure, Wu and Kraft (1970)
Appendix I to chapter 3
 C3I.1 Axioms and rules of probability
 C3I.2 Conditional probability and statistical independence
 C3I.3 Total probability and Bayes’ theorem
 C3I.4 Random variables and probability distributions
 C3I.5 Moments of a random variable
 C3I.6 The normal distribution
 C3I.6.1 The standard normal variate
 C3I.6.2 Application of standard normal variate
 C3I.7 Logarithmic normal distribution
 C3I.8 Joint distribution, covariance and correlation
 C3I.9 Moments of functions of random variables
 C3I.9.1 Sum of variates x1, x2 etc.
 C3I.9.2 Product of independent variates x1, x2, x3, etc.
 C3I.9.3 First order approximation for general functions
Appendix II to chapter 3
 C3II.1 Equations for a capacity – demand model (after Harr, 1977)
 C3II.1.1 Safety margin and factor of safety
 C3II.1.2 Defining probability of failure and reliability
 C3II.1.3 Probability of failure with normal distribution
 C3II.1.4 Probability of failure with lognormal distribution
 C3II.1.5 Safety margin required for given reliability
Appendix III to chapter 3
4 Limit equilibrium methods I – planar failure surfaces
 4.1 Introduction to limit equilibrium methods
 4.1.1 Methods considered in chapters 4 and 5
 4.1.2 Scope of limit equilibrium studies
 4.1.3 The concept of slip surfaces
 4.1.4 Defining factor of safety as per concept of limit equilibrium
 4.1.5 Alternatives to conventional safety factor
 4.1.6 Saturated and unsaturated soil slopes
 4.2 Infinite slopes in cohesionless soils
 4.2.1 Dry cohesionless soil
 4.2.2 Submerged cohesionless soil
 4.2.3 Cohesionless soil with seepage parallel to slope
 4.2.4 Rapid drawdown of water level in a slope of cohesionless soil
 4.3 Infinite slopes in cohesive soil
 4.3.1 Seepage through a slope – simple cases
 4.3.2 Rapid drawdown of water level in a slope of cohesive soil
 4.4 Ultimate inclination of natural slopes
 4.5 Vertical cuts in cohesive material
 4.5.1 Unsupported height of a vertical cut and tension crack depth
 4.5.2 Tension crack depth for use in stability analysis
 4.6 Plane failure in rock slopes
 4.7 Plane failure with water in tension crack
 4.7.1 Conventional analysis
 4.7.2 Alternative ways of defining F
 4.8 Interpretation of strength data for use in stability calculations
 4.9 Twodimensional sliding along one of two joint sets
 4.10 Continuity of jointing
 4.11 Wedge method or sliding block method of twodimensional analysis
 4.11.1 Biplanar slip surface
 4.11.2 Triplanar sliding surface
 4.12 Failure of threedimensional wedge
 4.13 Layered natural deposits and the effect of water pressure
 4.13.1 Interbedded sand and clay layers
 4.13.2 Interbedded sandstones and shales
 4.14 Earth dams – plane failure analyses
 4.14.1 Introduction
 4.14.2 Simple sliding block analysis
 4.14.3 Hydraulic fill dam
 4.15 Slurry trench stability
 4.15.1 Cohesionless soil
 4.15.2 Cohesive soil – soft clay
5 Limit equilibrium methods II – general slip surfaces and beyond critical equilibrium
 5.1 Introduction and scope
 5.1.1 Drainage conditions – choice between effective stress and total stress analysis
 5.1.2 Shapes of slip surfaces
 5.1.3 Estimating minimum factor of safety associated with a critical slip surface
 5.1.4 Tension crack location and depth as part of optimization process
 5.1.5 Back analysis of failed slopes and landslides
 5.1.6 The concept of a resistance envelope
 5.2 Shortterm stability of clay slopes
 5.2.1 Slopes in soft clay – circular failure surfaces
 5.2.2 Undrained strength of soft clay in relation to analysis (simple and advanced ‘total stress’ approaches)
 5.2.3 Stiff clays
 5.2.4 Proportion of fissures from back analysis
 5.3 Friction circle method (c, φ soils)
 5.4 Method of slices – Fellenius and Bishop simplified methods
 5.4.1 Ordinary method of slices (Fellenius method)
 5.4.2 Bishop simplified method
 5.4.3 Convergence problems and possible numerical errors
 5.4.4 Pore pressures and submergence
 5.4.5 Effective stress charts and average pore pressure ratio
 5.4.6 Inclusion of additional external forces such as soil reinforcement
 5.5 Slip surfaces of arbitrary shape
 5.5.1 Janbu’s generalised method
 5.5.2 Convergence problems
 5.5.3 Extended Janbu method (Zhang, 1989)
 5.6 Other methods for general slip surfaces
 5.6.1 Developments before 1978
 5.6.2 Developments over the last three decades
 5.6.3 Availability of geotechnical software for slopes
 5.6.4 Nonvertical slices in limit equilibrium analysis
 5.6.5 A variation of the method of slices and its application to the 1963 Vaiont slide
 5.7 Morgenstern and price method
 5.8 Simplified calculation and correction factor
 5.9 Some early applications
 5.10 Special analyses
 5.10.1 Slope underlain by very weak soil layer such as soft clay
 5.10.2 Considering calculated F in the context of the method of analysis
 5.10.3 Clay slope underlain by waterbearing seam of fine sand
 5.11 An early comparison of different limit equilibrium methods
 5.12 Threedimensional effects
 5.12.1 Developments over the last four decades
 5.12.2 Weighted average procedure
 5.12.3 Inclusion of end effects
 5.12.4 A general threedimensional approach
 5.12.5 Lateral curvature (curvature in plan) of a slope
 5.12.6 Shape or curvature of slope profile or slope face
 5.12.6 An example of 3D factor of safety calculations – analysis of the 1963 Vaiont slide
 5.13 ‘Total stress’ versus ‘effective stress’ analyses
 5.14 choice and use of limit equilibrium methods – guidelines
 5.14.1 Essential first steps
 5.14.2 Choice of method of analysis
 5.14.3 Sensitivity of calculated F
 5.14.4 Sensitivity of F to tension cracks
 5.14.5 The factor of safety in practice
 5.14.6 Important considerations in all types of analysis
 5.15 Variational calculus and slope stability
 5.16 Simulating progressive failure within the framework of limit equilibrium – the effect of stress redistribution in slopes of strainsoftening soil
 5.16.1 Applications of the above procedure
 5.17 Lessons from case studies of clay slopes
 5.17.1 Endofconstruction failures in clay
 5.17.2 Longterm failures in intact clays, progressive failure and renewed movement
 5.17.3 Longterm failures in fissured clays
 5.17.4 Time to failure
 5.18 Postfailure behaviour of landslides with particular reference to exceptional rockslides
 5.18.1 Broad categories of landslides
 5.18.2 Suggested mechanisms for exceptional landslides
 5.18.3 Travel angle of landslides based on completed motion after detachment
 5.19 Understanding ordinary slope failures beyond critical equilibrium
 5.19.1 Stability to critical equilibrium and failure
 5.19.2 The importance of very small movements of a failed but undetached mass
 5.19.3 Estimating deformations
 5.19.4 Rainfallinduced debris flow initiation
 5.19.5 Methodology for analysing a rock avalanche
 5.20 Improving slope stability
 5.20.1 Introduction
 5.20.2 Preliminary steps for slope improvement
 5.20.3 Brief outline of some stabilisation methods
Appendix to chapter 5
 C5.1 Slope analysis including anisotropy
 C5.2 For φ = 0 conditions
 C5.3 For φ > 0 cases
6 Stressdeformation analyses and their role in slope analysis
 6.1 Introduction
 6.1.1 Range of advanced numerical methods for stressdeformation analysis
 6.1.2 Need for stressdeformation analysis
 6.1.3 Specific advantages of stressdeformation analyses
 6.1.4 Beginnings of a numerical approach for embankment stress analysis
 6.2 The finite element method
 6.2.1 Basis of the method
 6.2.2 Twodimensional displacement formulation
 6.2.3 Review of linear, nonlinear and sophisticated models for FEM Solutions
 6.2.4 Features of the simpler models: linear elastic, multilinear elastic, hyperbolic elastic
 6.2.5 Features of elastoplastic and viscoplastic models
 6.2.6 General comments about all models
 6.2.7 Range and complexity of data and parameters required for some sophisticated models
 6.3 Material parameters for stress analysis
 6.3.1 Isotropic parameters
 6.3.2 Anisotropic parameters
 6.3.3 Influence of deformation parameters on stresses and deformations
 6.4 Incremental body force stresses
 6.4.1 Embankment analysis in stages
 6.4.2 Multistage excavation in linear and nonlinear material
 6.4.3 Simulation of excavation
 6.5 Nonlinear material behaviour and special problems
 6.5.1 Introduction
 6.5.2 Alternative approaches for nonlinear problems
 6.5.3 Equations based on hyperbolic response
 6.5.4 Joints and discontinuities and interface elements
 6.5.5 Incompressibility
 6.5.6 Analysis of mining spoil pile stability (Richards et al., 1981; Richards, 1982)
 6.6 Post excavation stresses
 6.7 Computed stresses and safety factor
 6.8 Modelling progressive failure in slopes of strainsoftening soil
 6.8.1 Brief overview of available methods
 6.8.2 Overstressed elements in a slope and calculating excess shear stress
 6.8.3 Iterative FEM analyses in strainsoftening soil
 6.9 Changes in water table and pore pressures
 6.10 Limit equilibrium analysis with known falure zone
7 Natural slope analysis considering initial stresses
 7.1 Introduction
 7.1.1 Importance of insitu stresses
 7.1.2 Magnitude and measurement of insitu stresses
 7.2 Relationship between K0, shear strength and pore pressure coefficients
 7.3 Estimating K0 from the back analysis of a failed slope
 7.4 Initial stresses in sloping ground
 7.5 Limiting values of K
 7.6 Stresses on any plane
 7.7 The concept of inherent stability
 7.8 Planar failure
 7.9 Ultimate stable angle of natural slopes
 7.10 Biplanar surfaces of sliding
 7.11 Potential slip surface of arbitrary shape
 7.12 Example – circular failure surfaces
 7.13 Simulating progressive change in stability
 7.13.1 The simulation process 385
 7.13.2 Defining an overall factor of safety at any stage
 7.13.3 Change in stability considering two alternative modes of progression
 7.13.4 An alternative method for simulation of progressive change in the stability of an idealized embankment
 7.14 Application to altered slopes
 7.15 Rockslide at the site of the vaiont dam and a summary of some analyses carried out after its occurrence
 7.15.1 Unusual nature of the catastrophic landslide
 7.15.2 Backcalculated shear strength based on critical equilibrium
 7.15.3 Shear strength of rock materials
 7.15.4 Pore water pressure assumptions
 7.16 Simulation of progressive failure based on initial stress approach (Chowdhury, 1978a)
 7.16.1 Assumption of a reasonable initial stress field
 7.16.2 Estimation of factors of safety
 7.16.3 Approximate estimation of accelerations
 7.16.4 Approximate estimation of velocities
 7.16.5 Supporting comments
 7.16.6 Conclusion
 7.17 An alternative approach for analysis of the vaiont slide (Hendron and Patton, 1985)
 7.17.1 Introduction
 7.17.2 2D static analyses
 7.17.3 3D static analyses
 7.17.4 Analyses for the dynamics of the landslide
 7.18 Final comment on the two alternative explanations
 7.18.1 Approach based on initial stress field and simulation of progressive failure
 7.18.2 Approach based on assumed high artesian pressures and heat – generated pore water pressures
8 Plasticity and shear band analyses – a brief review
 8.1 Plasticity
 8.1.1 Introduction
 8.1.2 Scope
 8.1.3 Material idealisation and types of solutions
 8.2 Classical analyses
 8.2.1 Introduction
 8.2.2 Critical profile of a slope with loading on the crest
 8.2.3 Finding the nonuniform surcharge for a uniform slope of given critical inclination
 8.2.4 Slopes curved in plan
 8.2.5 Uniform slope of soil in which shear strength increases with depth
 8.3 Limit analysis
 8.3.1 Upper and lower bound theorems
 8.3.2 Examplea vertical slope
 8.3.3 Lower bound solution
 8.3.4 Scope of solutions for general cases
 8.3.5 Extension of solutions to more realistic or complex problems
 8.3.6 Possible future extension to modeling of progressive failure
 8.3.7 Extension of upper bound method
 8.4 Plasticity solution by finite elements
 8.4.1 Introduction
 8.4.2 Strength reduction technique
 8.4.3 Nonhomogeneous slopes and realistic material behaviour
 8.4.4 Simple and advanced soil models
 8.4.5 A slope in homogeneous soil resting on a rough base
 8.5 Shear band concept
 8.5.1 Questions relevant to formation and significance of shear bands or slip surfaces
 8.5.2 Some relevant applications reported in theliterature
 8.5.3 Cases in which internal deformations of soil mass must be considered
 8.6 Palmer and rice approach – the shear box problem
 8.6.1 Introduction
 8.6.2 Energy balance equation
 8.7 Long shear box and infinite slope
 8.7.1 Long shear box
 8.7.2 Long slope with a step or cut
 8.8 Nonuniform shear stress on band
 8.8.1 Introduction
 8.8.2 Long shear box
 8.8.3 Long slope with step or cut
 8.8.4 Relatively flat slope – gravitational stress less than residual strength
 8.9 Shear band of arbitrary inclination (after Chowdhury, 1978b)
 8.9.1 Introduction
 8.9.2 Considering the energy balance
 8.9.3 The propagation criterion
 8.9.4 Results for an example case
 8.10 Rate of propagation
 8.11 A simple progressive failure model
 8.12 Application of shear band concepts
Appendix to chapter 8
 C8.1 Slope studies for anisotropic soil
9 Earthquake effects and seismic slope analysis
 9.1 Seismic slope stability and deformations – an introduction
 9.1.1 Aims and scope
 9.1.2 Introducing pseudostatic analysis
 9.1.3 Critical seismic coefficient (or yield value of seismic coefficient)
 9.1.4 Introducing Newmark approach of sliding block analysis
 9.1.5 Three stages of change in stability and permanent deformation
 9.2 Soil behaviour under cyclic loading conditions
 9.2.1 Introduction
 9.2.2 Cyclic shear strength from laboratory tests
 9.2.3 Field tests and model tests
 9.2.4 Shear strength parameters for seismic slope analysis
 9.2.5 Rate effects on the shear strength along existing slip surfaces
 9.3 Seismicallyinduced soil liquefaction and residual strength of cohesionless soil
 9.3.1 Seismic liquefaction phenomena
 9.3.2 Liquefactionrelated strains and deformations
 9.3.3 Undrained residual shear strength
 9.3.4 Flow liquefaction contrasted with cyclic mobility
 9.4 Pseudostatic analysis
 9.4.1 Planar slip surfaces
 9.4.2 Circular slip surface in saturated soil slope
 9.4.3 Slip surfaces of arbitrary shape
 9.4.4 Seismic coefficient and factor of safety for pseudostatic analysis
 9.4.5 Beyond pseudostatic analysis
 9.5 Critical seismic coefficient
 9.5.1 Introduction – the range of methods and solutions
 9.5.2 Critical seismic coefficient for slip surfaces of planar or log spiral shapes
 9.5.3 Critical seismic coefficient for circular slip surface
 9.5.4 Critical seismic coefficient for homogeneous slope considering slip surface of arbitrary shape
 9.6 Sliding block solution for permanent displacements
 9.6.1 The Newmark approach
 9.6.2 Typical estimated values of seismic displacement
 9.6.3 Considering variable critical seismic coefficient
 9.7 Empirical/regression equations for permanent displacements
 9.7.1 Introduction and scope of equations from regression analysis
 9.7.2 An equation based on (i) the ratio of critical seismic coefficient and peak ground acceleration coefficient and (ii) the predominant period
 9.7.3 An equation based only on the ratio of critical seismic coefficient and peak ground acceleration coefficient
 9.7.4 An equation based on arias intensity and critical seismic acceleration
 9.7.5 Seismic Destructiveness Potential Factor and its use in numerical analyses
 9.8 Dynamic analyses
 9.8.1 Introduction
 9.8.2 Basic concepts and equations
 9.8.3 Example of analyses for a failed dam
 9.8.4 Other procedures developed and used in the 1970s
 9.8.5 The SeedLeeIdriss procedure for dams or embankments which include saturated cohesionless materials
 9.8.6 Analysis of Lower San Fernando Dam – Seed’s approach
 9.8.7 Alternative explanation for failure of Lower San Fernando Dam
 9.8.8 Effective stress approach for analysis of Lower San Fernando Dam
 9.9 Occurrence of earthquakeinduced landslides
 9.9.1 Landslides related to some major earthquakes – key findings
 9.9.2 Some empirical relationships between earthquake magnitude M, landslide volume V, and landslide area A
 9.9.3 Summary of a subsequent study (Keefer, 2007)
 9.9.4 Topographic amplification effects
 9.10 Effect of earthquakes on earth dams and embankments
 9.10.1 Examples of dams that failed during earthquakes
 9.10.2 Example of a dam surviving a strong earthquake
 9.10.3 Failure modes and earthquake resistant design
 9.11 Role of probabilistic analysis
 9.11.1 Numerous uncertainties
 9.11.2 Probability of failure conditional on earthquake occurrence
 9.11.3 Probability of failure over the design life of a slope
 9.11.4 Estimating annual probability of earthquake occurrence
 9.11.5 Probability of landsliding based on observation and calculated values
 9.11.6 Increase in existing landslide hazard due to earthquakes Appendix to chapter 9
Appendix to chapter 9
 C9.1 Some discussions during the period (1960–1973) concerning the seismic coefficients
 C9.1.1 Factors influencing pseudostatic factor of safety
 C9.1.2 Estimating seismic coefficient based on viscoelastic response analysis
 C9.1.3 Seismic coefficients related to inertia forces
10 Probabilistic approaches and reliability analyses
 10.1 Basic probabilistic approach for slopes
 10.1.1 Introduction
 10.1.2 Numerical examples
 10.1.3 Aspects of probabilistic analysis covered in published work – a sample
 10.2 Elements of a basic probabilistic approach
 10.2.1 Recalling the basic resistance – load probability model
 10.2.2 Probabilistic approach based on general limit equilibrium models of slope stability
 10.2.3 Probability distribution of a function of several variables such as the factor of safety, F
 10.3 The big picture – role and benefitsof a probabilistic approach
 10.4 Numerical methods for evaluating statistical moments of factor of safety or for simulating its probability distribution
 10.4.1 First Order Second Moment Method (FOSM)
 10.4.2 Point Estimate Method or Rosenblueth method (PEM)
 10.4.3 MonteCarlo Simulation Method (MSM)
 10.4.4 Summing up – comparison of results from use of different methods
 10.5 Essential questions and elementary calculations for probabilistic analysis
 10.5.1 Select random variables: which parametersare significant?
 10.5.2 Statistical moments of F: which numerical methods are to be used?
 10.5.3 Alternative definition of reliability index: is a simple definition of reliability index good enough?
 10.5.4 Meaning of probability of failure as usually defined
 10.5.5 Options for evaluating probability of failure based on the assumption that F follows a normal probability distribution
 10.5.6 Probability distribution of F: which PDF to assume for F, Normal or Lognormal?
 10.5.7 Probability of failure based on Lognormal distribution
 10.5.8 Estimating standard deviations of basic variables
 10.5.9 Final comment
 10.6 Uncertainty components and issues for uncertainty analysis
 10.6.1 Introduction
 10.6.2 Spatial variation of a geotechnical parameter
 10.6.3 Length of slope failure – insight provided by spatial variability
 10.6.4 Systematic uncertainty of a geotechnical parameter
 10.6.5 Summing up
 10.7 Probability of successive failures
 10.7.1 Introduction
 10.7.2 Formulation in terms of safety margins along two discontinuities within a slope
 10.7.3 Joint normal distribution
 10.7.4 Trend of results for probability of successive failure along rock discontinuities
 10.7.5 Trend of results for probability of successive failures in a soil slope
 10.8 Systems reliability
 10.9 Probability of progressive failure along a slip surface
 10.9.1 Basic model considering local safety margins
 10.9.2 Advanced model for probability of sliding by progressive failure
 10.9.3 Further development of the model for probability of sliding by progressive failure
 10.10 Simulation of sliding probability of a progressively failing slope
 10.11 Bayesian updating
 10.11.1 Introduction
 10.11.2 Updating the reliability of an opencut mining slope
 10.11.3 Backanalysis through reliability updating
 10.12 Reliability analysis for a threedimensional slope problem
 10.13 Target failure probabilities
 10.13.1 Introduction
 10.13.2 Suggested target values of reliability index and failure probability for slopes
 10.13.3 Discussion and limitations
 10.14 Hazard and risk concepts and sitespecific assessments
 10.14.1 The basic terminology
 10.14.2 Types of risk and risk assessments
 10.14.3 Acceptable or tolerable risk levels
 10.14.4 Calculations and simple examples concerning risk
 10.15 Regional assessment of hazard and risk
 10.15.1 Introduction
 10.15.2 Purpose
 10.15.3 Key assumptions in regional studies
 10.15.4 Defining the scope
 10.15.5 Qualitative and quantitative approaches for regional analysis
 10.15.6 Role of an observational approach – monitoring of slopes and landslides
 10.16 Additional numerical examples As described for Case (a), calculations are done in a tabular form and presented in Appendix to chapter 10
11 Case studies of urban slope stability
 11.1 Aims of this chapter
 11.2 Regional perspective
 11.3 Landslide inventory
 11.4 Stability analyses of three sites
 11.4.1 Introduction
 11.4.2 Available information and assumptions
 11.4.3 Failure mechanism
 11.4.4 Drainage conditions
 11.4.5 Observed shapes of landslides and slip surfaces
 11.4.6 Software used for the Case Studies
 11.5 Case study 1 – site 64 in the suburb of Scarborough
 11.5.1 Introduction
 11.5.2 Background
 11.5.3 Geotechnical model for Site 64
 11.5.4 Pore water pressure assumptions
 11.5.5 Results of analysis
 11.5.6 Shear strength at failure on the basis of the above analyses
 11.6 Case study 2 – site 77, Morrison Avenue, Wombarra
 11.6.1 Introduction
 11.6.2 Background
 11.6.3 Geotechnical model for Site 77
 11.6.4 Pore water pressure assumptions
 11.6.5 Results of analyses
 11.6.6 Shear strength at failure based on resultsof analyses
 11.7 Case study 3 – site 134, Woonona Heights
 11.7.1 Introduction
 11.7.2 Background
 11.7.3 Geotechnical model for site 134
 11.7.4 Pore water pressure assumptions
 11.7.5 Results of analyses
 11.8 Concluding remarks on the three case studies
 11.9 Landslidetriggering rainfall
 11.9.1 Rainfall as triggering factor – thresholdand variability
 11.9.2 Analyses of the 1998 rainstorm and associated landsliding
 11.10 Landslide susceptibility and hazard
 11.10.1 Introduction and scope
 11.10.2 Regional risk assessment outside the scope of this chapter
 11.10.3 Datasets relevant to the study area
 11.10.4 Knowledge based approach and Data Mining (DM) model
 11.10.5 Analysis of DM results and landslide susceptibility zoning
 11.10.6 Landslide hazard assessment and zoning
 11.11 Observational approach and monitoring
 11.11.1 Introduction and definition
 11.11.2 Why an observational approach?
 1.11.3 Example of landslide management based on monitoring
 11.11.4 Field monitoring – periodic
 11.11.5 Field monitoring – continuous
 11.12 Concluding remarks
12 Summing up
 12.1 Introduction and brief overview
 12.2 Seeking emerging themes
 12.3 Geotechnical slope analysis in a regional context
 12.4 Choice between conventional and advanced methods of analysis
 12.5 Understanding and modelling important phenomena
 12.6 Appropriate use of probabilistic analysis
 12.7 Observational approach
 12.8 Meeting emerging challenges
 12.9 Concluding remarks
Appendix I Shear strength parameters of residual soils, weathered rocks and related minerals
Appendix II Slope stability charts and their use for different conditions including rapid draw down
 AII.1 Chart for parameter min Bishop simplified method (also Janbu’s method)
 AII.2 Introduction to slope stability charts
 AII.3 Taylor’s charts and their use
 AII.3.1 Special conditions considered by Taylor (1948)
 AII.4 Cousins’ (1977) charts – studies in terms of effective stress
 AII.5 Example concerning use of cousins’ charts
 AII.6 Charts by Hoek (1970) and Hoek and Bray (1974, 1977)
 AII.7 Rapid draw downeffective stress approach (after Bishop, 1954 and Skempton, 1954)
 AII.8 Construction pore pressures in impervious fill of earth dam (after Bishop, 1954)
Appendix III Morgenstern and price approach – some additional particulars
 AIII.1 Side force assumptions
 AIII.2 Admissibility criteria for morgenstern and price solution
 AIII.3 Typical comparisons
 AIII.3.1 Brilliant cut slide
 AIII.3.2 Navdocks example problem
 AIII.4 Conclusions
References
Subject index
Colour plates
Author(s)
Biography
Dr. Robin Chowdhury is well known internationally as a geotechnical engineer and scholar, and is Emeritus Professor at the University of Wollongong, Australia. He completed his PhD at the University of Liverpool, UK in 1970 and has devoted more than three decades to teaching, research and scholarship. His early work was concerned with factors influencing slope stability, landslide occurrence and mechanisms and with the concepts and methods of deterministic geotechnical analysis. Subsequently he devoted considerable attention to the development and application of probabilistic approaches and reliability analysis. He also made a sustained contribution to the understanding and simulation of progressive failure. In recent years Robin has emphasized the linking and integration of regional slope studies with sitespecific slope engineering assessments. He has also advocated the adoption of an interdisciplinary approach for geotechnical engineering projects and, in particular, for landslide management. His recent work has been concerned with the assessment of geotechnical hazard and risk as well as with observational approaches which include modern methods of field monitoring.
Dr. Phil Flentje is a recognised expert in Slope Engineering and Landslide Management, and a Senior Research Fellow at the University of Wollongong, Australia. His education and training is in Engineering Geology and Geotechnical Engineering. He completed his PhD at the University of Wollongong (NSW, Australia) in 1998. He developed a comprehensive GISbased approach for regional studies concerning the occurrence, frequency and impact of landslides. In his subsequent work he has developed models for the use of landslide inventories, the assessment of landslide susceptibility, hazard and risk. His current activities include webbased realtime monitoring of slope deformations, pore pressures and associated structural displacements as part of a regional assessment of landslide activity and frequency. His research also embraces analysis of rainfall with its spatial and temporal variability and landslidetriggering rainfall thresholds/alerts.
Dr. Gautam Bhattacharya is an experienced academic and researcher, and currently the Head of the Department of Civil Engineering, BESU, Shibpur, and also the ViceChairman, Calcutta Chapter of the Indian Geotechnical Society. His interest in the subject of slope stability developed during his doctoral research at IIT Kanpur (1985–1990). His thesis was concerned with the application of numerical methods in slope analysis. He has since been engaged in teaching this subject and in pursuing research on both deterministic and probabilistic approaches of analysis of unreinforced and reinforced slopes under static and seismic conditions. He has teaching, research and consultancy experience in the field of geotechnical engineering for about three decades.
Reviews
"An easy to read and comprehensive coverage of the subject matter. The brief examples and case studies are very helpful and facilitate teaching in schools, in short course and selflearning by practitioners. It moreover addresses a variety of common questions readers could have concering slope analysis. A little voluminous, it could still be used as a textbook; for sure its comprehensive coverage makes it work very well as a reference."
Prof. Wilson H. Tang, The Hong Kong University of Science and Technology"The authors should be congratulated for compiling the information on the subject matter in an extremely meticulous manner ... I certainly recommend this book as a reference for all those associated with the geotechnical engineering profession. Its strength is the discussion on earthquake effects, probabilistic approaches and reliability analysis, and the choice between various methods of analysis."
Prof. Devendra Narain Singh, Indian Inst. of Technology, Mumbai, India
"I have yet to see a book that excels the range and depth of the new arrivalGeotechnical Slope Analysis. Upon a quick scan, I have failed to find a topic which is not covered and that kind of coverage makes the book almost a single window outlet for the whole range of readership from students to experts and from theoreticians to practicing engineers. At least three things standout upon a second scan. Good teachers will find enough ammunition in this book to teach better. Poor teachers will improve upon their teaching, and those who are unaware of the multidimensional aspects of geotechnical concepts and content in slope engineering will find the right road."
Prof. R.K.Bhandari, New Delhi, India"The experience of the authors, drawing on research over many years, has resulted in an essential volume on theory and pracice, of value to both researchers and practising geotechnical engineers involved with studies of slopes and their mechanicsms of failure."
Dr Robin McInnes OBE FICE FGS FRSA"I believe this book contains a great deal of useful information and forms a valuable reference source. I will be pleased to have it on my bookshelf."
Laurie Wesley, New Zealand Geomechanics News, June 2010, issue 79, p. 20.
Support Material
Ancillaries

Errata Chowdhury.pdf
Errata