1st Edition

Government Budget Forecasting Theory and Practice

Edited By Jinping Sun, Thomas D. Lynch Copyright 2008
    660 Pages 50 Color & 101 B/W Illustrations
    by Routledge

    664 Pages 50 Color & 101 B/W Illustrations
    by Routledge

    Revenue and expenditure forecasting plays an important role in public budgeting and financial management, particularly during times of financial constraint, when citizens impose greater accountability upon government to use taxpayer dollars more efficiently. Despite its significance, revenue and expenditure forecasting is often overlooked in the budget process, and there is an imbalance between practice and research in this area. Based on the collaboration of budget scholars and practitioners, Government Budget Forecasting fulfills two purposes:

    1. Enhances the understanding of revenue and expenditure estimation both theoretically and practically
    2. Stimulates dialogue and debate among practitioners and academicians to identify good forecast practices as well as areas for improvement

    Divided into four parts, this comprehensive reference first examines forecast practices at the federal, state, and local levels, drawing on case studies that include California, Texas, and Louisiana. It then explores consensus systems and risk assessment, considering political factors and the costs of forecast errors. The text concludes with a call to transparency and guidance from a code of ethics, and a look at forecasting practices in emerging countries.

    Government Budget Forecasting: Improving the State of the Art, J. Sun and T.D. Lynch
    Federal Revenue Forecasting, R. G. Penner
    The State of the Art: Revenue Forecasting in U.S. State Government, K. G. Willoughby and H. Guo
    Forecasting State Revenues in Louisiana: From Dramatic Changes in the Oil and Gas Industry in the 1970s and 1980s to the Aftermath of Catastrophic Hurricanes in the 2000s, J. A. Richardson
    Budget Forecasting for the State of California, J. D. Vasché, B. Williams, and R. Ingenito
    Forecasting the Personal Income Tax, Q. XU, R. Megna, H. Kayser, and L. Holland
    Income Tax Forecasting in Minnesota, T. F. Stinson, P. D. Meagher, and J. L. Peloquin
    Methods and Issues in Forecasting Casino Tax Revenue, J. Landers
    Estimating and Forecasting Welfare Caseloads, S. Gurmu and W. J. Smith
    Forecast Evaluation: A Case Study, J. Sun
    Using Census Data to Forecast New Local Sales Taxes, J. D. Wong
    Does Revenue Forecasting Responsibility Matter: The Case of Milwaukee, Wisconsin,C. D. Kammholzand C. S. Maher
    Evaluating Revenue Forecasting in City Governments: A Survey of Texas Finance Directors,C.G. Reddick
    Pro Forma Forecasting for Determining Financial Position of Enterprise Operations in Government,
    A. Khan
    Preparing Data for Forecasting, D. W. Williams
    Consensus Forecasting for Budgeting in Theory and Practice, W. E Klay and J. A. Vonasek
    Use of Consensus Revenue Forecasting in the U.S. State Governments, Y. Qiao
    State Revenue Forecasting in the State of Indiana: A Consensus System in a Politically Divided State,
    J. L. Mikesell
    Consensus Revenue Estimating in State Government: A Case of What Works in Kansas, J.D. Wong and C.D. Ekstrom
    Forecast Errors: Balancing the Risks and Costs of Being Wrong, Q. Xu, H. Kayser, and L. Holland
    State Fiscal Management: What Practitioners Can Learn from Risk Management Theory, F. Thompson and B.L. Gates
    State Tax Portfolios: An Integrated Methodology for Forecasting and Analysis, R. D. Nelson
    Forecasting Revenues and Expenditures in the Public Sector: Guidance from a Code of Ethics, R. W. Smith
    Transparency in Government Revenue Forecasting, C. Garofalo and N. Rangarajan
    Incorporating Fiscal Architecture into Budget Forecasting, S. Wallace
    Forecasting Practices in Emerging Countries: The Morocco Experience, A. Zemrani


    Jinping Sun (California State University, Bakersfield, USA) (Edited by) ,  Thomas D. Lynch (Louisiana State University, Baton Rouge, USA) (Edited by)