Government Budget Forecasting: Theory and Practice, 1st Edition (Hardback) book cover

Government Budget Forecasting

Theory and Practice, 1st Edition

Edited by Jinping Sun, Thomas D. Lynch


664 pages | 50 Color Illus. | 101 B/W Illus.

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Hardback: 9781420045826
pub: 2008-03-26
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Revenue and expenditure forecasting plays an important role in public budgeting and financial management, particularly during times of financial constraint, when citizens impose greater accountability upon government to use taxpayer dollars more efficiently. Despite its significance, revenue and expenditure forecasting is often overlooked in the budget process, and there is an imbalance between practice and research in this area. Based on the collaboration of budget scholars and practitioners, Government Budget Forecasting fulfills two purposes:

  1. Enhances the understanding of revenue and expenditure estimation both theoretically and practically
  2. Stimulates dialogue and debate among practitioners and academicians to identify good forecast practices as well as areas for improvement

Divided into four parts, this comprehensive reference first examines forecast practices at the federal, state, and local levels, drawing on case studies that include California, Texas, and Louisiana. It then explores consensus systems and risk assessment, considering political factors and the costs of forecast errors. The text concludes with a call to transparency and guidance from a code of ethics, and a look at forecasting practices in emerging countries.

Table of Contents

Government Budget Forecasting: Improving the State of the Art, J. Sun and T.D. Lynch


Federal Revenue Forecasting, R. G. Penner

The State of the Art: Revenue Forecasting in U.S. State Government, K. G. Willoughby and H. Guo

Forecasting State Revenues in Louisiana: From Dramatic Changes in the Oil and Gas Industry in the 1970s and 1980s to the Aftermath of Catastrophic Hurricanes in the 2000s, J. A. Richardson

Budget Forecasting for the State of California, J. D. Vasché, B. Williams, and R. Ingenito

Forecasting the Personal Income Tax, Q. XU, R. Megna, H. Kayser, and L. Holland

Income Tax Forecasting in Minnesota, T. F. Stinson, P. D. Meagher, and J. L. Peloquin

Methods and Issues in Forecasting Casino Tax Revenue, J. Landers

Estimating and Forecasting Welfare Caseloads, S. Gurmu and W. J. Smith

Forecast Evaluation: A Case Study, J. Sun

Using Census Data to Forecast New Local Sales Taxes, J. D. Wong

Does Revenue Forecasting Responsibility Matter: The Case of Milwaukee, Wisconsin,C. D. Kammholzand C. S. Maher

Evaluating Revenue Forecasting in City Governments: A Survey of Texas Finance Directors,C.G. Reddick

Pro Forma Forecasting for Determining Financial Position of Enterprise Operations in Government,

A. Khan

Preparing Data for Forecasting, D. W. Williams


Consensus Forecasting for Budgeting in Theory and Practice, W. E Klay and J. A. Vonasek

Use of Consensus Revenue Forecasting in the U.S. State Governments, Y. Qiao

State Revenue Forecasting in the State of Indiana: A Consensus System in a Politically Divided State,

J. L. Mikesell

Consensus Revenue Estimating in State Government: A Case of What Works in Kansas, J.D. Wong and C.D. Ekstrom


Forecast Errors: Balancing the Risks and Costs of Being Wrong, Q. Xu, H. Kayser, and L. Holland

State Fiscal Management: What Practitioners Can Learn from Risk Management Theory, F. Thompson and B.L. Gates

State Tax Portfolios: An Integrated Methodology for Forecasting and Analysis, R. D. Nelson


Forecasting Revenues and Expenditures in the Public Sector: Guidance from a Code of Ethics, R. W. Smith

Transparency in Government Revenue Forecasting, C. Garofalo and N. Rangarajan

Incorporating Fiscal Architecture into Budget Forecasting, S. Wallace

Forecasting Practices in Emerging Countries: The Morocco Experience, A. Zemrani


About the Series

Public Administration and Public Policy

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