© 2011 – Routledge
Project managers tend to believe their cost estimates - whether they have exceeded budgets in the past or not. It is dangerous to accept the engineering cost estimates, which are often optimistic or unrealistic. Though cost estimates incorporate contingency reserves below-the-line, these estimates of reserves often do not benefit from a rigorous assessment of risk to project costs. Risks to cost come from multiple sources including uncertain project duration, which is often ignored in cost risk analyses. In short, experience shows that cost estimating on projects is rarely successful - cost overruns routinely occur. There are effective ways to estimate the impact on the cost of complex projects from project risks of all types, including traditional cost-type risks and the indirect but often substantial impact from risks usually thought of as affecting project schedules. Integrated cost-schedule risk anlaysis helps us determine how likely the project will go over budget with the current plan, how much contingency reserve is required to achieve a desired level of certainty, and which risks are most important so the project manager can mitigate them and achieve a better result. Integrated Cost-Schedule Risk Analysis provides solutions for these and other challenges. This book follows on from David Hulett's highly-praised Practical Schedule Risk Analysis. It focuses on the way that schedule risk can generate cost risk, and how to handle this relationship. It also applies the Risk Driver Method to the analysis so that you can clearly and transparently identify the key risks, rather than just the most risky cost line items. With detailed worked examples and over 70 illustrations, Integrated Cost-Schedule Risk Analysis offers the definitive guide to this critically important aspect of project management from surely the world's leading commentator.
Hulett's latest book … describes how one can (and really should) develop risk models that consider both cost and schedule and, more importantly, the interaction between the two. It is to be hoped that Hulett's approach will be adopted, no doubt adapted to suit each individual practitioner, to produce more realistic (let us not say 'accurate') projections of project outcomes - to set more achievable targets and to point towards more effective risk mitigation actions. Philip Rawlings, Director, Euro Log Ltd Why then do so many of us ignore this monumental testament to the success of statistics, modeling and simulation? I ask this because in this book David gives us an effective approach and all the tools we need to improve our cost and schedule estimates, which will increase the chance for success in our projects. Once armed with the tools and techniques necessary we can all improve. We can never know the "unknowable" … the future will always be uncertain, but we can surely decrease the cone of uncertainty to a manageable level. Charles Bosler, Chairman of the Risk Management SIG (www.risksig.com) and President of RiskTrak International
Contents: Foreword, Philip Rawlings; Foreword, Charles Bosler; Preface; Introduction: why conduct cost risk analysis?; Cost risk analysis basics: the three-point estimate and an analytic solution, the method of moments; What is Monte Carlo simulation and how does it apply to cost risk analysis?; Collecting high-quality data on cost risk methods and challenges; Correlation between project element costs reflects common risk drivers and implies more cost risk at the project level; Using risk register risks to drive the cost risk analysis: the 'risk driver' method; Preparing for integrated cost and schedule risk analysis; Essentials of integrated cost and schedule risk analysis; Integrated cost and schedule risk analysis: method and case study basic results; Integrated cost and schedule risk analysis advanced results; Summary of integrated cost and schedule risk analysis; Index.