This book examines intelligence analysis in the digital age and demonstrates how intelligence has entered a new era.
While intelligence is an ancient activity, the digital age is a relatively new phenomenon. This volume uses the concept of the "digital age" to highlight the increased change, complexity, and pace of information that is now circulated, as new technology has reduced the time it takes to spread news to almost nothing. These factors mean that decision-makers face an increasingly challenging threat environment, which in turn increases the demand for timely, relevant, and reliable intelligence to support policymaking. In this context, the book demonstrates that intelligence places greater demands on analysis work, as the traditional intelligence cycle is no longer adequate as a process description. In the digital age, it is not enough to accumulate as much information as possible to gain a better understanding of the world. To meet customers’ needs, the intelligence process must be centred around the analysis work – which in turn has increased the demand for analysts. Assessments, not least predictions, are now just as important as revealing someone else’s secrets.
This volume will be of much interest to students of intelligence studies, security studies, and international relations.
Table of Contents
1. Introduction: An old activity in a new age
Stig Stenslie, Lars Haugom & Brigt Harr Vaage
2. The historical backdrop
Sir David Omand
3. Intelligence as decision-making support
Espen Barth Eide
4. The necessity of experts
5. Open-Source and Social Media Intelligence
Bjørnar Sverdrup-Thygeson & Vegard Engesæth
6. Analysing with artificial intelligence
Lars Haugom, Cato Hemmingby & Tore Pedersen
7. Warning of hybrid threats
Patrick Cullen & Njord Wegge
8. Futures and forecasting
Kristian C. Gustafson
9. Capturing the customer’s attention
10. Avoiding politicisation
11. Being ethically conscious
Kira Vrist Rønn
12. Conclusion: Towards an analytic-centric intelligence process
Brigt Harr Vaage & Knut Magne Sundal
Stig Stenslie is Professor at the Center for Intelligence Studies at the Norwegian Defence Intelligence School (NORDIS), Norway.
Lars Haugom is Senior Adviser at the Norwegian Defence Establishment.
Brigt Harr Vaage is Director of Operations in the Norwegian Intelligence Service (NIS). He was Director of the NIS’ Analysis and Assessment Division (2014-2020).
'This work is a masterful treatise on the subject of intelligence, and I consider it a must-read for either the interested citizen or expert practitioner—whether Norwegian or American.'-- James R. Clapper, Former US Director of National Intelligence