1st Edition

Intelligent Systems and Decision Making for Risk Analysis and Crisis Response Proceedings of the 4th International Conference on Risk Analysis and Crisis Response, Istanbul, Turkey, 27-29 August 2013

Edited By Chongfu Huang, Cengiz Kahraman Copyright 2013

    In this present internet age, risk analysis and crisis response based on information will make up a digital world full of possibilities and improvements to people’s daily life and capabilities. These services will be supported by more intelligent systems and more effective decisionmaking.

    This book contains all the papers presented at the 4th International Conference on Risk Analysis and Crisis Response, August 27-29, 2013, Istanbul, Turkey. The theme was intelligent systems and decision making for risk analysis and crisis response. The risk issues in the papers cluster around the following topics: natural disasters, finance risks, food and feed safety, catastrophic accidents, critical infrastructure, global climate change, project management, supply chains, public health, threats to social safety, energy and environment.

    This volume will be of interest to all professionals and academics in the field of risk analysis, crisis response, intelligent systems and decision-making, as well as related fields of enquiry.

    The measurement of effective knowledge in multiple Internet of intelligences and application in risk assessment
    C. Huang
    Risk evaluation modeling and revenue impact analysis for multi-tiered supply chains
    J. Fogal
    Humanitarian logistics and information management for natural disaster response
    J. Montero & B. Vitoriano
    Seismic risk assessment of the Constantine city, Algeria
    B. Sbartai & M. Hamidatou
    Assessment of the liquefaction risk of soil under seismic solicitations
    B. Sbartai & F. Kamel
    Poultry purchase in response to avian influenza in Vietnam: A qualitative exploration
    Q. Liao, W.W.T. Lam, R. Fielding, T.H. Bich & V.T. Dang
    A system of systems approach in responding to events and addressing public health needs
    E. Akdogan, Y. Peres & A. Yaeli
    Fire accident chain evolution and control of Beijing transportation hub
    P. Sun, W. Zhu, Y. Ma, R. Song, S. He & K. Liu
    Study on multi-attribute group decision-making model of construction diversion risk
    Z. Chen
    A risk eliminating coordination method for emergency large group decision making
    X. Xu, Y. Xia & M. Wang
    The research of quantification of building fire losses base on FDS software
    Y. Tian
    A fuzzy MCDA framework for safety assessment in the remediation of a uranium mill tailings site in Ukraine
    A. Jiménez, M.C. Martín, A. Mateos, D. Pérez-Sánchez & A. Dvorzhak
    Study on flammability ranking of dominant herb communities in Songnen grassland, China
    Y. Bao, J. Zhang, X. Liu, Q. Zhang, Y. Wang, L. Shen & T. Zou
    A study on risk early warning of crops caused by floods in Northeast China based on vulnerability
    S. Zhao & Q. Zhang
    Scenario-based risk assessment and zonation of paddy caused by flood in Huai River sub-basin of China
    S. Zhao, Q. Zhang & C. Huang
    Application of capacity spectrum for Wenchuan earthquake damage risk analysis: The Dujiangyan study
    J. Yang, M. Liu & S. Jiang
    Design and implementation of crop risk assessment and zoning system
    Z. Song, Q. Zhang & K. Wang
    Predicting agricultural drought disaster loss based on SPI and ANN in Shandong, China
    X. Liu, J. Zhang, W. Cai & D. Yan
    Applications of health risk classification method in pre-evaluations of occupational disease hazards in construction projects in China
    D. Huang, M. Liu & M. Li
    Design fire risk assessment index system of large public buildings in China
    Z. Chen, Y. Xie, J. Wang & L. Zou
    The risk analysis of fuzzy inversion neural network and crime dark number space
    K. Zou, X. Li & X. Xue
    Comparing the performance of different artificial intelligence based clustering algorithms in healthcare waste disposal location
    Z. Gergin & Ş. Esnaf
    A survey of fuzzy risk analysis
    J. Guo & F. Ai
    Minimizing environmental risks using fuzzy TOPSIS: Location selection for ITU faculty of management
    A. Suder & C. Kahraman
    A fuzzy assessment model for river ecological vulnerability: A case study in Yangtze river basin
    Y. Wang, D. Wang & J. Wu
    Using game theory for SAR response after devastating earthquakes and tsunamis
    C.K. Wu
    Assessing flood disaster risk of urban residential building based on inundated depth
    J. Zhang, X. Liu, Z. Tong, Y. Zhang & Y. Wang
    A method for extracting and integrating scattered information in internet of intelligences and an application in risk analysis of natural disaster
    F. Ai, J. Guo, C. Huang, F. Zeng & T. Wu
    Uncertainty evaluation of groundwater modeling based on multimodel method
    X. Zeng, D. Wang, J. Wu, X. Zhu & L. Wang
    An interactive method of fuzzy probability elicitation in risk analysis
    E. Vicente, A. Jiménez & A. Mateos
    An ANFIS model for forecasting risk by Overall Equipment Effectiveness parameter in Total Productive Maintenance
    E.T. Bekar, M. Cakmakci & C. Kahraman
    A robust hub location model for disaster response via stochastic programming
    Z. Chen, X. Tan & X. Guan
    Comprehensive risk science education program for undergraduate students; a case in Chiba Institute of Technology
    K. Shibata, T. Koshiyama, A. Takagi & A. Yamazaki
    Research on evaluation questionnaire of safety climate for safe communities
    R. Tong, X. Liu, P. Gao & B. Du
    Research on early warning to safety assurance of subway based on mutation theory
    Y. Xu, Y. Xie, Y. Ge & B. Song
    Safety—a neglected issue when introducing solid biomass fuel in thermal power plants? Some evidence of an emerging risk
    F.H. Hedlund & J. Astad
    Application of PLR classification guide for accidental potential in Beijing LPG storage and distribution station
    Q. You, J. Fan, W. Zhu & Y. Bai
    Broadband statistical Green’s functions based on observed data by strong motion networks and its application to Tonankai earthquake
    Narenmandula, Baoyintu, H. Kawase, Mantegeer, Buren & Y. Bao
    Reducing urban disaster risk by improving resilience in China
    G. Zhai, S. Li & J. Chen
    Upside potential versus downside risk in Chinese agriculture under climate change
    Z. Tian, Z. Liang, H. Zhong, H. Qiu, L. Sun, G. Fischer, H. van Velthuizen, G. Cao & S. Zhao
    Monitoring of drought disaster in Xilin Guole grassland using TVDI model
    Y. Bao, G. Gama, B. Gang, Yongmei, Alatengtuya, Yinshan & Husiletu
    Credit risk evaluation of the credit card by grey data mining based on AHP-GRAP
    S. Li, Y. Shi, Z. Zhong, G. Zhu & B. Ai
    Operation mechanism and interfered information’s screening strategy of internet of intelligence
    F. Zeng, C. Huang & F. Ai
    Research about the acceptance level of risks based on multi-agent system
    C. Fan, G. Zhai, J. Chen, S. Li & L. Ding
    A risk assessment method based on RBF artificial neural network—cloud model for urban water hazard
    D. Liu & D. Wang
    An accelerated particle swarm optimization training algorithm for RBF neural network in river stage forecasting in typical Karst area, South China
    Z. Cao, D. Wang, L. Wang & Y. Shi
    Study on typhoon catastrophe risk assessment model framework
    J. Zhang & C. Huang
    Multilevel risk assessment of weather disaster
    S. Guo
    Do varying patterns with the same trend exist between temperature warming and climate-related natural disasters in China?
    B. Fan, N. Li & L. Guo
    Risk assessment of drought catastrophe for grain production at the provincial scale in China
    L. Xu, Q. Zhang, S. Zhao, K. Wang, Z. Li, F. Kong & X. Dong
    Forecasting oil consumption of Turkey using Adaptive Neuro-Fuzzy Inference System (ANFIS)
    O. Senvar, G. Ulutagay & E.T. Bekar
    Research on natural disaster risk management model in Huangshan scenic area
    S. Hu, H. Zhu & J. Zhang
    A justification of investment into railway risks: Use of ALARP criteria in combination with life quality index
    Q. Mahboob, E. Schöne, U. Maschek & J. Trinckauf
    Study on grassland fires disaster emergency spatial decision support system based on case-base
    Z. Tong, J. Zhang, X. Luo, Y. Bao & X. Liu
    The design of helmet-type multi-source information acquisition and processing platform in search and rescue missions W. Hu, H. Shang, L. Zhao, T. Zhang, G. Shi, J. Wang & L. Xuan
    Comparison of risk acceptability on NIMBY facility between Chinese and Japanese college students
    Y. Wu, G. Zhai, S. Li & C. Ren
    Study on the statistical method of direct economic losses from work safety accidents
    N. Deng
    The safety efficiency of an overhead lines undergrounding of cities cabling project
    Y. Wang, F. Yao & K. Liu
    Risk of investing in US industries after global financial crisis
    H. Sencal & M. Orhan
    Does air temperature really affect road traffic accidents?—evidences from China
    S. Li, G. Zhai, C. Ren & Y. Wu
    Preliminary study on text-to-scene implementation for emergency response plan
    F. Yang & W. Li
    How is risk perception influenced by perceptive approaches in a multi-risk context?
    F. Yao, G. Zhai, C. Ren & Z. He
    Heavy metals in PanaxNotoginseng and the implications for human health risk
    M. Zhu, Y. Jiang, B. Cui, Y. Jiang, H. Cao & W. Zhang
    The study of grassland fire loss assessment method based on remote sensing technology in inner Mongolia
    Y. Chang, D. Bao, G. Liu, W. Wu & N. Ao
    Quantitative evaluation of drought-flood abrupt alternation during the flood season in Fuyang, China
    Z. Sun, J. Zhang, X. Liu, Z. Tong, D. Yan & C. Wang
    A study on city infrastructure management-looking from the Beijing rainstorm on July 21, 2012
    K. Liu, W. Zhu & Y. Wang
    Drought risk analysis of multi hazard-bearing body based on copula function in Huai river basin
    Y. Hu, J. Zhang, X. Liu, Z. Tong, Z. Sun, D. Yan & C. Wang
    The risk analysis of Daqingshan National Nature Reserve of drought disaster
    C. Li, Y. Bao, W. Zhang & S. Yin
    In recent 52 years the risk change analysis of Daqingshan National Nature Reserve of drought disaster
    C. Li, Y. Bao, W. Zhang & S. Yin
    Minimizing the risk factors in a pharmaceutical supply chain by using goal programming
    B. Özkan, İ. Kaya & H. Başlıgil
    The risk analysis of wind energy investments in Turkey
    S.C. Onar & T.N. Kılavuz
    Comparative study on Beijing residents’ risk perception on incidents of pandemic influenza, subway terrorist scenario and torrential rain
    M. Fang, H. Chen & Z. Wei
    Climate change risks on human health and environment: Recent situation in Turkey
    A. Suder
    A critical study of tanker oil spills: Going further than statistics
    N.P. Ventikos
    A new resolution technique to solve a hybrid flowshop scheduling problem in a crisis environment
    H. Chehade, F. Yalaoui, L. Amodeo & X. Li
    Risk evaluation of personal credit based on attribute comprehensive coordinate method
    G. Xu, N. Liu & J. Feng
    Vegetable market risk measurement and evaluation based on VaR method—a case study of a vegetable wholesale market in Beijing
    C. Wang, S. Zhao, A. Zhao & Y. Zhao
    The integrated measurement of carbon finance market risk based on Copula model
    C. Zhang, Y. Yang & T. Zhang
    Risk evaluation for ARCH-GARCH vs. RBF NN forecasting and SVR models: Application to high-frequency time series
    D. Marcek
    The study of grassland fire monitoring based on DMSP/OLS night-time imagery
    WuYunDeJi, Y. Bao, H. Bao, Yinshan & B. Gang
    Empirical analysis of Shenzhen stock market volatility risks after cancelling the ban on large-sized non-tradable shares based on GARCH-type models
    H. Yan & M. Yu
    Sub-pixel fractional area of grassland fire observations based on multi-source satellite data
    D. Bao, Y. Chang & G. Liu
    An improved image steganalysis using a novel feature selection algorithm based on artificial bee colony
    F.G. Mohammadi & M.S. Abadeh
    A decision making approach for post-disaster multi-criteria facility location assignment problem
    C. Sol & K. Kılıç
    Prediction of firm’s financial crash-evidence from the factor analysis model
    N. Benhayoun, I. Chairi, A.E. Gonnouni, M. Tanana & A. Lyhyaoui
    A semantic composition of ebXML business processes
    H. Ouassila & Z. Boufaida
    Study of mobility-disadvantage group psychological need and mental rehabilitation system in coastal rural area of China
    A. Pan
    Workers’ risk acceptance level in the furniture sector
    M.A. Rodrigues, P.M. Arezes & C.P. Leão
    Retrieval of soil moisture in Inner Mongolia using MODIS data and Temperature Vegetation Drought Index (TVDI) method
    C. Zhao & T. Alateng
    Multi-scale study on the characteristics of precipitation variation in Jarud County in recent 30 years
    H. Chun & T.Y. Alateng
    Decadal changes of moisture transport in eastern China
    Y. Zhang & J. Chou
    A risk analysis of waste collection and disposal in health institutions of Turkey
    A. Budak & A. Ustundag
    A preliminary study of recent satellite-derived vegetation changes and response to climate change in Inner Mongolia, China
    Yongmei, Y. Bao, Y. Bao & Bilige
    Pre-positioning disaster response facilities and relief items
    C. Renkli & S. Duran
    A fuzzy decision making approach to selection among alternative buses
    M. Erdoğan & İ. Kaya
    Methodology for evaluating the emergency response capability of chemical industry parks
    W. Chen & S. Ge
    The effect of environmental risk factors and socio-economic development on city life-cycle: An association rule mining approach
    E. Isikli, A. Ustundag & E. Cevikcan
    Forecasting the return of products in closed-loop supply chain—the case of WEEE in Turkey
    S. Ugurlu
    Crop yield risk assessment: New approach based on data integration
    K. Wang & Q. Zhang
    Risk assessment due to electricity demand forecasting under uncertainty
    E. Bolturk & B. Oztaysi
    Factors affecting food safety perceptions in Japan: An ordered probit analysis
    X. Yu, M. Boyd & L. Porth
    The case study of soft hierarchical model on integrated risk assessment for multiple disaster of multiple risk sources
    Y. Xue, C. Huang, C. Niu & Y. Wang
    Modelling critical infrastructures: The case of the Metro transport system
    J. Santos-Reyes, D. Padilla-Pérez & A.N. Beard
    Cascading and unprecedented effects of disasters in urban system
    S. Kundak
    Synthetic prediction of the risk management for cloud computing services composition
    X. Liang, R. Zhang, B. Tang & C. Huang
    Time-varying system characteristics and safety guarantee measures of urban operation
    Z. Zhai, W. Zhu & K. Liu
    Past explosive outbursts of entrapped carbon dioxide in salt mines provide a new perspective on the hazards of carbon dioxide
    F.H. Hedlund
    Innovation strategy selection under uncertain conditions
    O. Surer, S.C. Onar & Y.I. Topcu
    Determinants of risk perception towards science and technology
    A.K. Suerdem, B. Gumus & M. Unanoglu
    Empirical research on debt risk of local government—a case of Jiangsu Province, China
    H. Wu & G. Zhai
    A study of spatial and temporal dynamic patterns of drought risk for corn by using AVHRR data in the Northwest of Liaoning Province, China
    X. Liu, J. Zhang, D. Ma, Y. Bao, X. Liu, Z. Tong, D. Yan & C. Wang
    Distribution and ecological risk assessment of heavy metals in sediments of a river in Southwest China
    B. Cui, M. Zhu, Y. Jiang, Y. Jiang & H. Cao
    Desertification ecological risk assessment on different types of farmlands in Horqin sand land
    Y. Wang, J. Zhang, X. Liu, Z. Tong, D. Yan, Y. Bao & Y. Bao
    Ecological security assessment for four counties of Xilingol League using fuzzy mathematics
    F. Wang, H. Zhao, H. Wang & X. Bai
    Ontology-based disaster information acquisition and intelligent management
    H. Shang, W. Hu, T. Zhang, B. Ning, P. Xie & N. Li
    A discussion on using internet of intelligences to improve risk radar
    T. Wu, C. Huang, F. Ai, F. Zeng & J. Guo
    Evaluate the pressure-relief capability of high-rise coating workshop by CFD method
    J. Wang, Y. Li, C. Ren & A. Shi
    Flood ecological risk assessment: A case study of Bohai Rim
    L.F. Xu, Y.L. Lu & X.G. Xu
    Self organizing maps with value at risk similarities for monitoring financial markets
    M. Resta
    Improving customer satisfaction via QFD structure for the identification of critical risk factors: An application from computer technology in Turkey
    A. Erdil & H. Erbıyık
    Long-term stream-flow prediction and water risk identification by the data-driven support vector regression with a dynamic stream deficit index
    L. Cheng, Y. Ding, K. Khorasani, R. Li & Y. Chen
    Modelling of a nuclear emergency plan: Command chain network analysis
    C.R. Martín, J.L.G. Álvarez, M.R. Ferrero & A.L. Paredes
    Sensitivity analysis of the East China food production on climate change
    Y. Fu & J. Chou
    Causes of flood disasters of the costal cities in southeast China—a case study of Putian city
    J. Ye, M. Zhang, G. Lin & F. Ding
    Prediction of maize production based on the comprehensive assessment of weather hazards: Application on Lishu Country, Jilin Province, China
    J. Zhao & Q. Zhang
    Three-dimensional numerical study on internal waves in the Northern South China Sea
    P. Zheng, X. Li, J. Shi & Q. Xu
    A fuzzy Multi-Criteria Group Decision Making approach to project risk assessment
    U. Asan, A. Soyer & C.E. Bozdağ
    A dynamic balance sheet approach to measuring systemic risk
    A.K.M. Azhar & V.B.Y. Gan
    Review of emerging risk definitions in literature
    C. Mazri
    Relationship between the South China Sea Summer Monsoon and precipitation in China
    X. Gu & N. Li


    Chongfu Huang, Cengiz Kahraman