Making the African Continental Free Trade Agreement a Success Pathways and a Call for Action

Foreword

Wamkele Keabetswe Mene

Chapter 1: Making the AfCFTA a Success: Potential, Pathways, and Call for Action

Albert G. Zeufack, Fulbert Tchana Tchana, and Aly Sanoh

1.1.        Introduction     

1.2.        What would success look like?   

1.3.        Three foundations to achieve success: demography, digital, and diversification   

1.4.        Call for Action to Achieve Success           

Chapter 2: Africa’s Trade patterns—Trends and Benchmarking  

Constant Lonkeng Ngouana

2.1.        Introduction     

2.2.        Who has Africa Traded with Historically?

2.3.        What does Africa trade?             

2.4.        Potential in the Horizon—Convergence in Export Sophistication  

2.5.        Conclusion and Policy Implications         

Chapter 3: Long-term growth impact of a well-functioning AfCFTA for the continent and by sub-region: a comparative analysis based on historical experience

Mama Keita

3.1.        Introduction     

3.2.        Growth and socio-economic impacts of the AfCFTA         

3.3.        Examples of Successful promotion of long-term growth and how can AfCFTA help achieve similar results: A historical perspective 

3.4.        Africa’s Growth performance in the past three decades  

3.5.        Conclusion and recommendations          

Chapter 4: The Africa Continental Free Trade Area and Poverty Reduction in Africa             

Clarence Tsimpo, Aly Sanoh, and Mohamed Coulibaly

4.1.        Introduction     

4.2.        How has Africa fared so far?       

4.3.        A profile of poverty in Africa      

4.4.        Keys constraints to poverty reduction in Africa   

4.5.        How will the AfCFTA affect constraints to poverty reduction in Africa? 

4.6.        Poverty impact of the AfCFTA    

4.7.        Conclusion        

Chapter 5: AfCFTA: What it means for AGOA, EBA and trading with Asia?             

Souleymane Coulibaly, Natnael Simachew Nigatu, Angella Faith Montfaucon

5.1.        Introduction     

5.2.        The Legacy of Non-Reciprocal Preferential Trade Agreements      

5.3.        The Prospects of the African Continental Free Trade Agreement  

5.4.        The Prospect of Trade and Investment with Asia

5.5.        From Political Non-Reciprocal PTA to Reciprocal Private Trade and investment        

5.6.        Conclusion        

Chapter 6: Lessons from African RECs: for a successful AfCFTA   

Woubet Kassa and Pegdéwendé Nestor Sawadogo

6.1.        Introduction     

6.2.        Regional Economic Communities (RECs) in Africa: Evaluating their Impact on Trade             

6.3.        Lessons and Challenges in transitioning from RECs to AfCFTA       

6.4.        Conclusion        

Chapter 7: Fiscal policies coordination to the success of the AfCFTA        

Fulbert Tchana Tchana

7.1.        Introduction     

7.2.        Analytical framework    

7.3.        Analysis of findings from regional value chain and economic integration process        

7.4.        Lessons from other development zones 

7.5.        Conclusion -- Fiscal policy road map for economic convergence in Africa   

Chapter 8: Monetary policy harmonization for AfCFTA  

Constant Lonkeng and Fulbert Tchana Tchana

8.1.        Introduction     

8.2.        Optimal Currency Area 

8.3.        Estimating the Trade Benefits of Sharing a Common Currency     

8.4.        Lessons from the European Economic Community and ECOWAS journey toward Monetary Union

8.5.        A case for convergence criteria, monetary and financial policy harmonization 

8.6.        Conclusion        

Chapter 9: Transport Policies for a Successful AfCFTA     

Théophile Bougna

9.1.        Introduction     

9.2.        The Continental Transport Infrastructure gap      

9.3.        Current State of Transport Infrastructure in Africa            

9.4.        Can the current state of Africa transport infrastructure boost the AfCFTA?             

9.5.        Conclusion and Policy Recommendations            

Chapter 10: Industrialize Africa by leveraging on its natural resources: The AfCFTA to be a game changer

Komi Tsowou    

10.1.     Introduction     

10.2.     The imperative for African economies to add values to their natural resources          

10.3.     Industrialization and trade liberalization: theoretical underpinning and empirical evidence

10.4.     Promoting value addition to natural resources under the AfCFTA

10.5.     Conclusion and policy messages

Chapter 11: Upgrading Skills for Africa’s Economic Transformation         

Vincent Belinga and Kolobadia Ada Nayihouba

11.1.     Introduction     

11.2.     Skills and participation in global value chains      

11.3.     Skills for integration in the agribusiness value chains       

11.4.     Skills for the manufacturing value chains

11.5.     Skills for the digital economy     

11.6.     Skills for logistics            

11.7.     Policy priorities

11.8.     Conclusion        

Chapter 12: Realizing the promise of the AfCFTA - the role of industrial and competition policies

Witness Simbanegavi and Tendai Gwatidzo

12.1.     Introduction     

12.2.     The investment and industrial development imperatives for Africa             

12.3.     Instruments of industrial policy in the AfCFTA     

12.4.     Regional industrial policy and the AfCFTA            

12.5.     Industrial Policy experiences and lessons from Asia and the EU   

12.6.     Potential challenges to implementing/coordinating industrial policy at continental level        

12.7.     Conclusion        

Chapter 13: Intellectual Property and the African Continental Free Trade Area: A Public Health Perspective

Amal Nagah Elbeshbishi

13.1.     Introduction     

13.2.     The international pharmaceutical market and Africa’s situation   

13.3.     The TRIPS Agreement and patents on drugs        

13.4.     The arguments for and against IP protection       

13.5.     What African countries should do?         

13.6.     Conclusions and recommendations

Biography

Albert G. Zeufack is the World Bank’s Country Director for DRC, Angola, Burundi, and Sao Tome et Principe. Prior to his appointment he was Chief Economist for Africa from May 2016 to June 2022. He was also Practice Manager in the Macroeconomics and Fiscal Management Global Practice and leader of the World Bank-wide Community of Practice for the Management of Natural Resources Rents. His main research interest is in the micro-foundations of macroeconomics.

Fulbert Tchana Tchana is a World Bank Lead Country Economist. Since joining the Bank in 2013, he has worked on analytical, advisory, capacity-building, and lending operations in the Middle East and Africa. He supported these countries in the areas of economic modeling, growth and productivity analytics, economic and trade diversification, oil revenue management, subsidy reform, and regional integration. Before joining the Bank, his previous positions included Economist for Cameroon’s Ministry of Finances and  Assistant Professor of Economics at the University of Cape Town, South Africa.

Aly Sanoh is a Senior Economist in the Poverty and Equity Global Practice of the World Bank. His work focuses on understanding the drivers of poverty and inequality reduction in the Sahel countries. He has held positions in the Office of the Chief Economist of the Africa Region, where he conducted macroeconomic and microeconomic analyses for Africa’s Pulse.