Managing Emerging Risk: The Capstone of Preparedness, 1st Edition (Paperback) book cover

Managing Emerging Risk

The Capstone of Preparedness, 1st Edition

By Kevin D. Burton

CRC Press

287 pages | 58 B/W Illus.

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Description

From Main Street to Mumbai, Managing Emerging Risk: The Capstone of Preparedness considers the new global drivers behind threats and hazards facing all those tasked with protecting the public and private sector. The text delves into the global mindset of public and private sector emergency managers and presents a new risk landscape vastly different from the one existing ten years ago.

The book begins by presenting a series of fictitious scenarios each resulting in mass destruction and fatalities. These are each followed by actual news stories that support the scenarios and demonstrate that the proposed events—seemingly unthinkable—have the potential to occur. Next, the author identifies two drivers in the practice of emergency management and general preparedness today that constitute our view of the future and the new face of risk. The first is the Disaster Halo Effect—the idea that modern threats exhibit more than one event. The second is the worldview of our nation as a Market State focused on the trading of goods, services, and ideas among the nation-states. The book also reviews the history of preparedness and discusses its relationship with large-scale threats, establishing that hindsight bias has hurt our ability to plan and respond to the unexpected.

The chapters that follow explore what is needed to better cultivate, design, develop, and operate emerging management and preparedness thinking in the current environment. Each chapter begins with key terms and objectives and ends with thought-provoking questions. Introducing a new paradigm of thought that takes into account the chief influencers of global threats, the book arms emergency and business operations managers with the ammo needed to successfully confront emerging threats in the 21st century.

Table of Contents

Imagine This

About the Scenarios

The Phoenix Rave Massacre

The Saint Louis Earthquake Scenario

Going Green, Ecoterrorist, and a First Strike Advantage

The Narco-Jihad Strike

The New Face of Risk and the Market State

Overview: The New Face of Risk and the Market State

The History of Preparedness

Today’s Emergency Management Stakeholders

The First Event Scenario and Disaster Halo Effect

The Rise of the Market State

Emergency Management and the Market State

Scenario Planning, Strategy, and Risk Assessments for an Unknown Future

Overview: The Market State Introduces a New Set of Scenarios

Poor Scenario Planning as the Root Cause of Poor Emergency Response

Scenario Planning and The First Event

Various Schools of Thought for Scenario Planning

The Importance of Strategy, Limitations, and Latitudes

The Location-Based Risk Assessment

Sources of Data for First Event Scenarios

Overview: Sources for Valid First Event Scenarios and Location-Based Risk Assessments

The New Madrid Fault-A First Event Scenario?

U.S. Data Sources for First Event Scenarios and Location-Based Risk Assessments

What Computers Can, and Cannot, Tell Us

User Bias and Power Users

Classified Means Not Actionable: If Not Shared Among the Right Agencies

Probability, Possibility, and Risk

All Source Analysis and Storytelling

Tracking Memes: Data Trends and the Diffusion of Innovation

What is a Meme?

Memes in Action: The Beslan Massacre

Complex Systems: Why Rich Data Sets and Novelty Require Trending and Memes

Mastering Memes

Terrorists and Memes: Complex Systems and the 15% Rule

Fusion Centers Do Not Make Memes: Fusion People Do

Mastering Memes: A Method for All-Source Analysis

Grouping Ideas, Tactics, and Ideologies: Categorizing Memes to Tell the Story

Grouping With Visualization

Coolhunters and Pattern Recognition

From Dots and Patterns to Believable Stories

Coolhunters and Early Adopters

Pattern Recognition—The Pros in Action

In Real Life: The Boxing Day Tsunami and Haiti

Putting the Market State to Use, Application, Practice, and Understanding

Amplifying Pattern Recognition

Link and Thin Slice

Areas of Dominant Influence (ADI) and Emerging Markets

Copycats, Reverse Engineering, Swarm Effects, and Kiddie Tactics

New Risk, Reasoned

A New World, New Risks

Tracking Memes: Data Trends and the Diffusion of Innovation

Translating Memes and Diffusion

Stakeholders in Diffusion

The Show and Tell of Diffusion

Telling the Story

Engaging in a New State of Practice

Overview: The New Face of Emergency Management Practitioners

The Emergency Management Lifestyle

The Personal Traits and Characteristics of Tomorrow’s Emergency Manager

Brand of Self

The New Professional Practices of the Market State World

Index

About the Author

Since 1996, Kevin Burton has been a thought-leader and skilled practitioner of the business continuity and disaster recovery disciplines. His approach to workflow analysis, design, development, implementation, and evaluation of business and IT work processes have been a key to his success. After five years of extensive study in the fields of counterterrorism and emergency management, he now travels the globe in support of a large multinational organization's emergency management planning effort. His work includes the creation of literally thousands of disaster recovery and business continuity plans and hundreds of on-site counterterrorism risk assessments, business impact analyses and global risk briefings for some of America’s largest organizations.

Subject Categories

BISAC Subject Codes/Headings:
BUS073000
BUSINESS & ECONOMICS / Commerce
POL017000
POLITICAL SCIENCE / Public Affairs & Administration
SOC040000
SOCIAL SCIENCE / Disasters & Disaster Relief