Modeling Hydrologic Change: Statistical Methods, 1st Edition (Hardback) book cover

Modeling Hydrologic Change

Statistical Methods, 1st Edition

By Richard H. McCuen

CRC Press

448 pages | 64 B/W Illus.

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pub: 2002-10-29
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Description

Modeling hydrologic changes and predicting their impact on watersheds is a dominant concern for hydrologists and other water resource professionals, civil and environmental engineers, and urban and regional planners. As such changes continue, it becomes more essential to have the most up-to-date tools with which to perform the proper analyses and modeling of the complex ecology, morphology, and physical processes that occur within watersheds. An application-oriented text, Modeling Hydrologic Change: Statistical Methods provides a step-by-step presentation of modeling procedures to help you properly analyze and model real-world data.

The text addresses modeling systems where change has affected data that will be used to calibrate and test models of the system. The use of actual hydrologic data will help you learn how to handle the vagaries of real-world hydrologic-change data. All four elements of the modeling process are discussed: conceptualization, formulation, calibration, and verification. Although the book is oriented towards the statistical aspects of modeling, a strong background in statistics is not required. The statistical and modeling methods discussed here will be of value to all disciplines involved in modeling change. With approximately 100 illustrations, Modeling Hydrologic Change will equip you with an understanding with which to perform the proper analyses and modeling of the complex processes that occur across various disciplines.

Table of Contents

DATA, STATISTICS, AND MODELING

Watershed Changes

Effect on Flood Record

Watershed Change and Frequency Analysis

Detection of Nonhomogeneity

Modeling of Nonhomogeneity

INTRODUCTION TO TIME SERIES MODELING

Components of a Time Series

Moving-Average Filtering

Autocorrelation Analysis

Cross-Correlation Analysis

Identification of Random Components

Autoregression and Cross-Regression Models

STATISTICAL HYPOTHESIS TESTING

Procedure for Testing Hypotheses

Relationships among Hypothesis Test Parameters

Parametric and Nonparametric Tests

OUTLIER DETECTION

Chauvener's Method

Dixon-Thompson Test

Rosner's Outlier Test

Log Pearson Type III Outlier Detection: Bulletin 17b

Pearson Type III Outlier Detection

STATISTICAL FREQUENCY ANALYSIS

Frequency Analysis and Synthesis

Population Models

Adjusting Flood Record for Urbanization

GRAPHICAL DETECTION OF NONHOMOGENEITY Graphical Analyses

Compilation of Causal Information

Supporting Computational Analyses

STATISTICAL DETECTION OF NONHOMOGENEITY

Runs Test

Kendall Test for Trend

Pearson Test for Serial Independence

Spearman Test for Trend

Spearman-Conley Test

Cox-Stuart Test for Trend

Noether's Binomial Test for Cyclical Trend

Durbin-Watson Test for Autocorrelation

Equality of Two Correlation Coefficients

DETECTION OF CHANGE IN MOMENTS

Graphical Analysis

The Sign Test

Two-Sample t-Test

Mann-Whitney Test

The t-Test for Two Related Samples

The Walsh Test

Wilcoxan Matched-Pairs, Signed-Ranks Test

One-Sample Chi-Square Test

Two-Sample F-Test

Siegel-Tukey Test for Scale

DETECTION OF CHANGE IN DISTRIBUTION

Chi-Square Goodness-of-Fit Test

Kolmogorov-Smirnov One-Sample Test

The Wald-Wolfowitz Runs Test

Kolmogorov-Smirnov Two-Sample Test

MODELING CHANGE

Conceptualization

Model Formulation

Model Calibration

Model Verification

Assessing Model Reliability

HYDROLOGIC SIMULATION

Computer Generation of Random Numbers

Simulation of Discrete Random Variables

Generation of Continuously Distributed Random Variates

Applications of Simulation

SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS

Mathematical Foundations of Sensitivity Analysis

Time Variation of Sensitivity

Sensitivity in Model Formulation

Sensitivity and Data Error Analysis

Sensitivity of Model Coefficients

Watershed Change

FREQUENCY ANALYSIS UNDER NONSTATIONARY LAND USE CONDITIONS

Data Requirements

Developing a Land-Use Time Series

Modeling Issues

Comparison of Flood Frequency Analyses

Summary

Appendix A: Statistical Tables

Appendix B: Data Matrices

References

Index

Each chapter begins with and Introduction and ends with a "Problems" Section

Subject Categories

BISAC Subject Codes/Headings:
MAT029000
MATHEMATICS / Probability & Statistics / General
SCI026000
SCIENCE / Environmental Science