1st Edition

Modelling Uncertainty in Flood Forecasting Systems

By Shreedhar Maskey Copyright 2004
192 Pages
by CRC Press

192 Pages
by CRC Press

192 Pages
by CRC Press

Like all natural hazards, flooding is a complex and inherently uncertain phenomenon.  Despite advances in developing flood forecasting models and techniques, the uncertainty in forecasts remains unavoidable.  This uncertainty needs to be acknowledged, and uncertainty estimation in flood forecasting provides a rational basis for risk-based criteria. This book presents the development and... Read more
Chapter 1: Introduction, Chapter 2: Flood Forecasting Models and Uncertainy Representation, Chapter 3: Existing Mathematical Methods for Uncertainty Assessment, Chapter 4: Contribution of Present Research to Uncertainty Assessment Methods, Chapter 5: Application: Flood Forecasting Model for Klodzko Catchment (Poland), Chapter 6: Application: Flood Forecasting Model for Loire River (France), Chapter 7: Conclusions and Recommendations, Appendix I: Fuzzy Sets, Fuzzy Arithmetic and Defuzzification, Abbreviations, Notations, References, Samenvatting: Modellering Van Onzekerheid in Systemen Voor Hoogwatervoorspelling, Acknowledgements, About the Author

Biography

Shreedhar Maskey was born on 24 December 1966 in Charikot, in the district Dolkha, Nepal. In 1990, he graduated in Civil Engineering from Tribhuvan University in Nepal. Since 1991 he served in the same university as a lecturer until he joined UNESCO-IHE (then IRE-Delft) in 1997 to participate in the Master's Programme in Hydroinformatics. He received the Master of Science degree with distinction in hydro informatics in April 1 999. Since April 1999 he has been at UNESCO-IRE as a PhD research fellow. During this period he also worked for the COWl project (Apr. 1999 - Dec. 1999) and the OS1RIS2 project (Jan. 2000 - Mar. 2003) and assisted in various ways in the Hydroinformatics Master's Programme.

"This book is an excellent one. It is directed to the skeptic engineers who still refuse to embrace concept of uncertainty and continue to use deterministic approaches. This is due to the fact that books dealing with uncertainty seldom include any practical application. Therefore, many engineers assume that uncertainty modeling, be it of probabilistic, fuzzy, or convex nature, are reserved for research only. This book is a welcome harbinger which paves the way to systematic uncertainty analysis as an extremely practical problem…."

Dr. Issac Elishakoff, J. M. Rubin Distinguished Professorin Safety, Reliability and Security, Florida Atlantic University writing in Shock and Vibration 13 (2006) 63 IOS Press