Net Present Value and Risk Modelling for Projects: 1st Edition (Paperback) book cover

Net Present Value and Risk Modelling for Projects

1st Edition

By Martin Hopkinson


168 pages

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Paperback: 9781472457967
pub: 2016-04-07
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Hardback: 9781138461000
pub: 2017-06-28
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pub: 2017-03-02
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The Net Present Value (NPV) forecast lies at the heart of the business case on many projects. Martin Hopkinson's guide explains when, why and how NPV models should be built for projects and how this approach can be integrated with the risk management process.

NPV models tend to be used during the earliest phases of a project as the business case is being developed. Typically, these are the stages when uncertainty is at its highest and when the opportunities to influence the project's plan are at their greatest. This book shows how project financial forecasting and risk management principles can be used to both improve NPV forecasts and to shape the project solution into one that is risk-robust.

The text is sufficiently broad to be practicable for first-time users to employ the methods described. But it also contains insights into the process that are likely to be new to the majority of experienced practitioners. All users should find that the models used in this book will help to provide useful templates for exploiting the techniques that are used.

About the Author

Martin Hopkinson is the Director of Risk Management Capability Limited and has 30 years’ experience as a project manager, project risk specialist and consultant. His experience has been gained across a wide variety of industries and engineering disciplines and includes multi-billion pound projects and programmes. Martin’s previous book The Project Risk Maturity Model, concerns the risk management process and his contributions to Association for Project Management guides such as Directing Change and Sponsoring Change reveal his belief in the importance of project governance and business case development. In this book he brings these subjects together by showing how NPV and risk modelling techniques can be used to optimise projects and support project approval decisions.

About the Series

Advances in Project Management

Project management has become a key competence for most organisations in the public and private sectors. Driven by recent business trends such as fewer management layers, greater flexibility, increasing geographical distribution and more project-based work, project management has grown beyond its roots in the construction, engineering and aerospace industries to transform the service, financial, computer, and general management sectors. In fact, a Fortune article rated project management as the number one career choice at the beginning of the 21st century. Yet many organizations have struggled in applying the traditional models of project management to their new projects in the global environment. Project management offers a framework to help organisations to transform their mainstream operations and service performance. It is viewed as a way of organising for the future. Moreover, in an increasingly busy, stressful, and uncertain world it has become necessary to manage several projects successfully at the same time. According to some estimates the world annually spends well over $10 trillion (US) on projects. In the UK alone, more than £250 billion is spent on projects every year. Up to half of these projects fail! A major ingredient in the build-up leading to failure is often cited as the lack of adequate project management knowledge and experience. Some organizations have responded to this situation by trying to improve the understanding and capability of their managers and employees who are introduced to projects, as well as their experienced project managers in an attempt to enhance their competence and capability in this area. Advances in Project Management provides short, state of play, guides to the main aspects of the new emerging applications including: maturity models, agile projects, extreme projects, six sigma and projects, human factors and leadership in projects, project governance, value management, virtual teams, project benefits.

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Subject Categories

BISAC Subject Codes/Headings:
BUSINESS & ECONOMICS / Accounting / Financial
BUSINESS & ECONOMICS / Strategic Planning
BUSINESS & ECONOMICS / Project Management