Pragmatics of Uncertainty: 1st Edition (Hardback) book cover

Pragmatics of Uncertainty

1st Edition

By Joseph B. Kadane

Chapman and Hall/CRC

333 pages | 64 B/W Illus.

Purchasing Options:$ = USD
Hardback: 9781498719841
pub: 2016-09-27
SAVE ~$22.00
$110.00
$88.00
x
eBook (VitalSource) : 9781315370965
pub: 2016-10-14
from $28.98


FREE Standard Shipping!

Description

A fair question to ask of an advocate of subjective Bayesianism (which the author is) is "how would you model uncertainty?" In this book, the author writes about how he has done it using real problems from the past, and offers additional comments about the context in which he was working.

Table of Contents

Bayesian Paleoethnobotany

Styles of Data Analysis

The Data

Research Plan

Prior Probabilities of Activities

Botanical Remains: The Likelihood Function

Computation of Posterior Distributions

Conclusion

References

Discussion

Reply to the Discussion

Epilogue

Teaching Suggestions

Statistical Sampling in Tax Audits

Foreword

Published Paper

Introduction

The Theory of Statistical Sampling: An Overview

Judicial Decisions

The Case for Statistical Samples

Statutory Standards for the Use of Statistical Sampling

Conclusions

Appendix A

Epilogue

Teaching Suggestions

A Statistical Analysis of Adverse Impact of Employer Decisions (1990) 53

Foreword

Published Paper

Introduction

Database Issues

Analyses

Fisher's Exact Tests

A Bayesian Analysis

Paired Observations

Conclusions

References

Epilogue

Teaching Suggestions

Subjective Bayesian Analysis for Surveys with Missing Data

Foreword

Published Paper

Introduction

Background and Analysis

Conclusions

References

Epilogue

Teaching Suggestions

Missing Data in the Forensic Context

Foreword

Published Paper

Introduction

The New Jersey Turnpike Case

Presentation to Court of Surveys with Missing Data

References

Epilogue

Teaching Suggestions

Bayesian Demography: Projecting the Iraqi Kurdish Population

Foreword

Published Paper

Introduction

Current Practices

The Iraqi Kurdish Population

Overview of Projection Procedure

Projecting the Iraqi Kurdish Population

Fertility

Mortality

Migration

Obtaining a Base Population

Results

Discussion

References

Epilogue

Teaching Suggestions

An Allegation of Examination Copying

Foreword

Pragmatics of Uncertainty

Published Paper

Data and Formal Analysis

Priors: What to Look For

An Index

Results

Conclusion

Other Purposes, Other Indices

References

Epilogue

Teaching Suggestions

Vote Tampering in a District Justice Election in Beaver County, PA

Foreword

Published Paper

Introduction

Legal History

Model

Data Structuring

Model Speci cation

Estimation with Markov Chain Monte Carlo

Results

Model Validation

Discussion

Appendix

References

Epilogue

Teaching Suggestions

The Effect of Intensity of Effort to Reach Survey Respondents: A

Toronto Smoking Survey

Foreword

Published Paper

Introduction

The Survey

Overview of Methodology

MAR Models

Logistic Regression

Bayesian Logistic Regression

NI Model

Modeling the Non-Response Mechanism

Relating Non-Response to the Dependent Variable - The NI Model 166

Data Augmentation

Sampling from the Posterior Distribution

Choice of Prior Distributions

Results

Coe_cients for the Number of Calls

Sensitivity to Priors

Effect on Odds of Response

Effect on Probability of Response

Conclusion

Appendices

References

Epilogue

Teaching Suggestions

Comparing Harm Done by Mobility and Class Absence: Missing Students

and Missing Data

Foreword

Published Paper

Introduction

Data

Data Description

Missing Data

Model Specification

Notation

Likelihood without Choice Indicators

Likelihood with Choice Indicators

Prior Distributions

Methodology for Sampling from the Posterior Distribution

Results

Conclusions

Discussion

Appendix

References

Editor's Foreword

Comment

Epilogue

Teaching Suggestions

Hierarchical Models for Employment Decisions

Foreword

Published Paper

Introduction

Proportional Hazards Models

Hierarchical Priors for Time Varying Coe_cients

Smoothness Priors

Forming an Opinion about Smoothness

Posterior Distribution

Reexpressing

Examples

Case K

Case W

Valentino v. United States Postal Service

Discussion

References

Epilogue

Teaching Suggestions

Pragmatics of Uncertainty

Age- and Time-Varying Proportional Hazards Models for Employment

Discrimination

Foreword

Published Paper

Introduction

Proportional Hazards Regression

Overview

Proportional Hazards Models for Time to Event Data

Thin-Plate Spline Smoothness Priors

Case W Revisited

Forming an Opinion about Smoothness and Anisotropy

Computing the Posterior Distribution

Sensitivity Analysis

Identi cation of the Anisotropy Parameter

Previous Analyses of Case W

Summary

Discussion

References

Epilogue

Teaching Suggestions

Error Analysis for Small Angle Neutron Scattering Datasets Using

Bayesian Inference

Foreword

Published Paper

Introduction

Correlation Lengths

Small-angle Neutron Scattering

The SANS Instrument

Instrument Components

Instrument Con gurations

SANS Error Analysis

Traditional Error Analysis

The Bayesian Alternative

Results and Discussion

Separate Marginal Distributions on _L and _S

Joint Posterior Distribution on (_L; _S)

Representing Fits Graphically: \family of curves" and Standardized

Residual Distributions

Conclusions

Appendix A

Appendix B

References

Comment

Comment

Rejoinder

Epilogue

Teaching Suggestions

Impacts of Beliefs about Tropical Cyclone Detection on Conclusions

about Trends in Tropical Cyclone Number

Foreword

Published Paper

Introduction

TC Detection and Recording over the Years

Combining Detection Probability with Raw Counts

Illustration

Sensitivity to Prior Quanti cation

Concluding Remarks

Resolving Ambiguity with Further Studies

Sensitivity to Formulation

Toward a Flexible Formulation

Incorporating Climate Models

References

Epilogue

Teaching Suggestions

The Number of Killings in Southern Rural Norway

Foreword

Published Paper

Norwegian Homicide Law and the Documentary Evidence

Demographic Evidence about the Number of Killings

Models of the Data

Conclusion

References

Epilogue

Teaching Suggestions

Epilogue

Index

About the Author

Dr. Polhemus is Chief Technology Officer for Statpoint Technologies, Inc. and directs the development of STATGRAPHICS. He received his B.S.E. and Ph.D. degrees from the School of Engineering and Applied Science at Princeton University, under the tutelage of Dr. J. Stuart Hunter. Dr. Polhemus spent two years as an assistant professor in the Graduate School of Business Administration at the University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill and six years as an assistant professor in the Engineering School at Princeton University.Dr. Polhemus founded Statistical Graphics Corporation in 1980 to develop and promote the STATGRAPHICS software program. In 1983, he founded Strategy Plus, Inc., which developed EXECUSTAT for DOS. Dr. Polhemus founded NWP Associates, Inc., in 1993 to develop STATLETS, a set of Java applets which permit statistical data analysis over the Internet. In 1999 development of STATGRAPHICS was assumed by Statpoint Technologies, Inc.Dr. Polhemus lives in northern Virginia with his wife Caroline and is the proud father of four sons: Christopher, Gregory, Leland, and Michael.

About the Series

Chapman & Hall/CRC Texts in Statistical Science

Learn more…

Subject Categories

BISAC Subject Codes/Headings:
MAT029000
MATHEMATICS / Probability & Statistics / General
MAT029010
MATHEMATICS / Probability & Statistics / Bayesian Analysis