1st Edition

Pragmatics of Uncertainty




ISBN 9781498719841
Published September 27, 2016 by Chapman and Hall/CRC
374 Pages 64 B/W Illustrations

USD $115.00

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Book Description

A fair question to ask of an advocate of subjective Bayesianism (which the author is) is "how would you model uncertainty?" In this book, the author writes about how he has done it using real problems from the past, and offers additional comments about the context in which he was working.

Table of Contents

Bayesian Paleoethnobotany
Styles of Data Analysis
The Data
Research Plan
Prior Probabilities of Activities
Botanical Remains: The Likelihood Function
Computation of Posterior Distributions
Conclusion
References
Discussion
Reply to the Discussion
Epilogue
Teaching Suggestions

Statistical Sampling in Tax Audits
Foreword
Published Paper
Introduction
The Theory of Statistical Sampling: An Overview
Judicial Decisions
The Case for Statistical Samples
Statutory Standards for the Use of Statistical Sampling
Conclusions
Appendix A
Epilogue
Teaching Suggestions

A Statistical Analysis of Adverse Impact of Employer Decisions (1990) 53
Foreword
Published Paper
Introduction
Database Issues
Analyses
Fisher's Exact Tests
A Bayesian Analysis
Paired Observations
Conclusions
References
Epilogue
Teaching Suggestions

Subjective Bayesian Analysis for Surveys with Missing Data
Foreword
Published Paper
Introduction
Background and Analysis
Conclusions
References
Epilogue
Teaching Suggestions

Missing Data in the Forensic Context
Foreword
Published Paper
Introduction
The New Jersey Turnpike Case
Presentation to Court of Surveys with Missing Data
References
Epilogue
Teaching Suggestions

Bayesian Demography: Projecting the Iraqi Kurdish Population
Foreword
Published Paper
Introduction
Current Practices
The Iraqi Kurdish Population
Overview of Projection Procedure
Projecting the Iraqi Kurdish Population
Fertility
Mortality
Migration
Obtaining a Base Population
Results
Discussion
References
Epilogue
Teaching Suggestions

An Allegation of Examination Copying
Foreword
Pragmatics of Uncertainty
Published Paper
Data and Formal Analysis
Priors: What to Look For
An Index
Results
Conclusion
Other Purposes, Other Indices
References
Epilogue
Teaching Suggestions

Vote Tampering in a District Justice Election in Beaver County, PA
Foreword
Published Paper
Introduction
Legal History
Model
Data Structuring
Model Speci cation
Estimation with Markov Chain Monte Carlo
Results
Model Validation
Discussion
Appendix
References
Epilogue
Teaching Suggestions

The Effect of Intensity of Effort to Reach Survey Respondents: A
Toronto Smoking Survey

Foreword
Published Paper
Introduction
The Survey
Overview of Methodology
MAR Models
Logistic Regression
Bayesian Logistic Regression
NI Model
Modeling the Non-Response Mechanism
Relating Non-Response to the Dependent Variable - The NI Model 166
Data Augmentation
Sampling from the Posterior Distribution
Choice of Prior Distributions
Results
Coe_cients for the Number of Calls
Sensitivity to Priors
Effect on Odds of Response
Effect on Probability of Response
Conclusion
Appendices
References
Epilogue
Teaching Suggestions

Comparing Harm Done by Mobility and Class Absence: Missing Students
and Missing Data

Foreword
Published Paper
Introduction
Data
Data Description
Missing Data
Model Specification
Notation
Likelihood without Choice Indicators
Likelihood with Choice Indicators
Prior Distributions
Methodology for Sampling from the Posterior Distribution
Results
Conclusions
Discussion
Appendix
References
Editor's Foreword
Comment
Epilogue
Teaching Suggestions

Hierarchical Models for Employment Decisions
Foreword
Published Paper
Introduction
Proportional Hazards Models
Hierarchical Priors for Time Varying Coe_cients
Smoothness Priors
Forming an Opinion about Smoothness
Posterior Distribution
Reexpressing
Examples
Case K
Case W
Valentino v. United States Postal Service
Discussion
References
Epilogue
Teaching Suggestions
Pragmatics of Uncertainty

Age- and Time-Varying Proportional Hazards Models for Employment
Discrimination
Foreword
Published Paper
Introduction
Proportional Hazards Regression
Overview
Proportional Hazards Models for Time to Event Data
Thin-Plate Spline Smoothness Priors
Case W Revisited
Forming an Opinion about Smoothness and Anisotropy
Computing the Posterior Distribution
Sensitivity Analysis
Identi cation of the Anisotropy Parameter
Previous Analyses of Case W
Summary
Discussion
References
Epilogue
Teaching Suggestions

Error Analysis for Small Angle Neutron Scattering Datasets Using
Bayesian Inference

Foreword
Published Paper
Introduction
Correlation Lengths
Small-angle Neutron Scattering
The SANS Instrument
Instrument Components
Instrument Con gurations
SANS Error Analysis
Traditional Error Analysis
The Bayesian Alternative
Results and Discussion
Separate Marginal Distributions on _L and _S
Joint Posterior Distribution on (_L; _S)
Representing Fits Graphically: \family of curves" and Standardized
Residual Distributions
Conclusions
Appendix A
Appendix B
References
Comment
Comment
Rejoinder
Epilogue
Teaching Suggestions

Impacts of Beliefs about Tropical Cyclone Detection on Conclusions
about Trends in Tropical Cyclone Number

Foreword
Published Paper
Introduction
TC Detection and Recording over the Years
Combining Detection Probability with Raw Counts
Illustration
Sensitivity to Prior Quanti cation
Concluding Remarks
Resolving Ambiguity with Further Studies
Sensitivity to Formulation
Toward a Flexible Formulation
Incorporating Climate Models
References
Epilogue
Teaching Suggestions

The Number of Killings in Southern Rural Norway
Foreword
Published Paper
Norwegian Homicide Law and the Documentary Evidence
Demographic Evidence about the Number of Killings
Models of the Data
Conclusion

References
Epilogue
Teaching Suggestions
Epilogue
Index

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Author(s)

Biography

Dr. Polhemus is Chief Technology Officer for Statpoint Technologies, Inc. and directs the development of STATGRAPHICS. He received his B.S.E. and Ph.D. degrees from the School of Engineering and Applied Science at Princeton University, under the tutelage of Dr. J. Stuart Hunter. Dr. Polhemus spent two years as an assistant professor in the Graduate School of Business Administration at the University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill and six years as an assistant professor in the Engineering School at Princeton University.Dr. Polhemus founded Statistical Graphics Corporation in 1980 to develop and promote the STATGRAPHICS software program. In 1983, he founded Strategy Plus, Inc., which developed EXECUSTAT for DOS. Dr. Polhemus founded NWP Associates, Inc., in 1993 to develop STATLETS, a set of Java applets which permit statistical data analysis over the Internet. In 1999 development of STATGRAPHICS was assumed by Statpoint Technologies, Inc.Dr. Polhemus lives in northern Virginia with his wife Caroline and is the proud father of four sons: Christopher, Gregory, Leland, and Michael.