1st Edition

Predictive Intelligence for Tomorrow’s Threats

Edited By Erik J Dahl, David Strachan-Morris Copyright 2025
108 Pages
by Routledge

108 Pages
by Routledge

The world is facing an ever-changing array of complex threats to international security. Yet intelligence agencies have a mixed record of anticipating these threats, while decision makers have an equally mixed record of effectively acting on predictive intelligence when offered. Sometimes intelligence has provided a useful warning, such as Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, but at other times it has... Read more

Introduction - ‘Predictive intelligence for tomorrow’s threats’: is predictive intelligence possible?

Erik J. Dahl & David Strachan-Morris

 

1. Intelligence warning in the corporate sector: the 2013 In Amenas terrorist attack in retrospect

Michael J. Ard

 

2. Warning intelligence and high consequence environments: a comparative assessment to integrate human factors to support warning analysis

Nicole K. Drumhiller, Jim Burch and Casey Skvorc

 

3. Intelligence failure in countering terrorism in south Asia: a comparative analysis of Holey Artisan and Easter attacks

Masrur Mahmud Khan

 

4. Mass-casualty terrorism and strategic surprise in Mumbai and Paris: understanding the Islamist perspective

Emmanuel Karagiannis

 

5. Intelligence and operational warning: lessons from Ukraine

Mike Fowler

 

 

 

Biography

Erik J. Dahl is Associate Professor of National Security Affairs at the Naval Postgraduate School in Monterey, California, where he specializes in intelligence, terrorism, and homeland security and defense. His latest book is The COVID-19 Intelligence Failure: Why Warning Was Not Enough.

David Strachan-Morris is Lecturer in Intelligence and Security at the University of Leicester, where he is the Programme Director for the MA Intelligence and Security. He holds a PhD from the University of Wolverhampton and previously worked in intelligence roles in the police, British Army, and private security industry.