Probability is All We Have: Uncertainties, Delays, and Environmental Policy Making, 1st Edition (Paperback) book cover

Probability is All We Have

Uncertainties, Delays, and Environmental Policy Making, 1st Edition

By James K. Hammitt


306 pages

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Paperback: 9780367190323
pub: 2020-09-01
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First published in 1990. In this study, the author suggests ways that policy-makers can think about environmental policy choice that responds to the importance of uncertainty and delay. Hammitt describes several tools for environmental policy analysis and illustrates their application to important policy issues.

In the first part of the book, dealing with stratospheric-ozone depletion, the author describes techniques for accommodating outcome uncertainties. The second part of the study considers the health risks associated with pesticide residues on food. The final section addresses the issue of potential global climate change, and describes how the tools explored can be applied to this new challenge.

This book should be of greatest interest to academic, government, and industry analysts and others concerned with improving methods for environmental-policy making.

Table of Contents

Preface; Acknowledgements; Figures; Tables; 1. Outcomes and Value Uncertainty in Environmental Policy; Part One: Outcome Uncertainty: Stratospheric Ozone Depletion; 2. The Policy Problem 3. Probability-Based Scenarios 4. The Distribution of the Score Function 5. Subjective Marginal Probability Distributions for Potential Ozone Depleters 6. Production and Emission Scenarios 7. Conclusions 8. Timing Responses to Potential Stratospheric Ozone Depletion 9. The Decision Framework 10. Results and Sensitivity Analysis 11. Conclusions; Part Two: Value Uncertainty: Food-Borne Risk; 12. Valuing Health Risks 13. Choosing Among Potentially Hazardous Floods 14. Willingness to Pay for Organically Grown Foods 15. Avoided Risk 16. Willingness to Pay for Risk Reductions 17. Conclusions; Part Three: Extensions: Global Climate Change; 18. Applying the Tools to Potential Climate Change; Notes; Bibliography

About the Series

Routledge Library Editions: Environmental Policy

The volumes in this set, originally published between 1982 and 1995, draw together research by leading academics in the area of environmental policy and provide a rigorous examination of related key issues. The volumes examine international policy, impact assessment, and future environmental planning. This set will be of particular interest to students of Environmental Studies.

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Subject Categories

BISAC Subject Codes/Headings:
SCIENCE / Environmental Science