Provides an introduction to decision analysis. This book is based upon a number of papers and articles taken from the Operational Research Society's journal and other publications. However, the book is not simply a 'collection of reprints': Professor French has provided extensive notes and commentary to weave the extracts into a coherent whole. Although techniques are presented, the main thrust is to convey the purpose of decision analysis and the interpretation that should be placed upon its output: vital topics, but ones seldom discussed in introductory texts. The writing is aimed at the non-technical reader.
Table of Contents
Preface -- Foreword -- 1 Introduction -- 1.1 Preamble -- 1.2 The rev counter decision /by P. G. Moore and H. Thomas -- 1.3 Decision analysis and operational research -- 2 The theory -- 2.1 Decision tables and decision trees -- 2.2 Subjective probability and Bayes' theorem -- 2.3 Utility theory -- 2.4 Multi-attribute utility theory -- 3 Case studies -- 3.1 Introduction -- 3.2 Marketing a new product /by D. W. Beattie -- 3.3 Balancing the failure modes in the electronic circuit of a cardiac pacemaker: a decision analysis /by B. Ronen, J. S. Pliskin and S. Feldman -- 3.4 A multi-objective decision analysis: budget planning for product engineering /by D. L. Keefer and C. W. Kirkwood -- 3.5 Decision analysis for the evaluation of risk in nuclear waste management /by J. W. Lathrop and S. R. Watson -- 3.6 Requisite decision modelling: a case study /by L. D. Phillips -- 3.7 The use of a simple multiple-criteria model to assist in selection from a shortlist /by V. Belton -- 4 Thinking and sharing perceptions -- 4.1 A collection of 'Viewpoints' /by K. D. Tocher, R. M. Adelson, S. French, R. Hartley, /L. C. Thomas and D. J. White -- 4.2 What is a normative analysis? -- 4.3 From decision theory of decision analysis /by S. French -- 4.4 Group decision making and decision conferencing -- 4.5 Subjective aspects of the art of decision analysis: exploring the role of decision analysis in decision structuring, decision support, and policy dialogue /by H. Thomas and D. Samson -- Further reading -- References -- Index.
Simon French is Professor of Operational Research and Information Systems, University of Leeds, UK.
"The author uses a lively combination of his own narrative and previously published papers to lead the reader through the theory and applications in the field."
-American Mathematical Monthly