Political risk was first introduced as a component for assessing risk not directly linked to economic factors following the flow of capital from the US to Europe after the Second World War. However, the concept has rapidly gained relevance since, with both public and private institutions developing complex methodologies designed to evaluate political risk factors and keep pace with the internationalization of trade and investment. Continued global and regional economic and political instability means a plethora of different actors today conduct a diverse range of political risk analyses and assessments. Starting from the epistemological foundations of political risk, this books bridges the gap between theory and practice, exploring operationalization and measurement issues with the support of an empirical case study on the Arab uprisings, discussing the role of expert judgment in political forecasting, and highlighting the main challenges and opportunities political risk analysts face in the wake of the digital revolution.
Table of Contents
1. Political risk as a social science concept
2. Thinking about a theoretical framework
3. From theory to practice: a case study of the Arab Spring
4. Forecasting political events: issues and techniques
5. The cross-cutting role of expert judgment
6. The impact of the digital revolution on political risk analysis and assessment
Cecilia Emma Sottilotta is currently a post-doctoral research fellow in political science at LUISS Guido Carli, Rome, and an adjunct faculty member at the American University of Rome and at the University of Calabria, Italy.