1. Introduction
1.1 Societal Needs and Demands
1.2 Historical Perspectives on the Origins of Risk Analysis and Management
1.3 Risk Types with Varying Impacts: From Nuisances to Existential
1.4 Systems Framework
1.5 Knowledge
1.6 Cognition and Cognitive Science
1.7 Ignorance as Knowledge Deficiency
1.8 Aleatory and Epistemic Uncertainties
1.9 Knowledge and Ignorance in System Abstraction
1.10 Exercise Problems
2. Risk Terminology and Events
2.1 Introduction
2.2 Risk-Related Terminology and Definitions
2.3 Risk Assessment Concepts
2.4 Risk Events and Factors
2.5 Time and Chronology Risks
2.6 Human-Related Risks
2.7 Political, Economic, and Financial Risks
2.8 Exercise Problems
3. Fundamental Risk Methods
3.1 Introduction
3.2 Risk Assessment Methods
3.3 Risk Treatment and Control
3.4 Data Needs of Risk Methods
3.5 Risk Representation, Communication, and Documentation
3.6 Limitations and Pitfalls of Risk Assessment
3.7 Exercise Problems
4. System Definition and Structure
4.1 Introduction
4.2 Perspectives on System Definition
4.3 Methods for System Definition
4.4 Hierarchical Definitions of Systems
4.5 System Complexity
4.6 Exercise Problems
5. Component Failure Probability Assessment
5.1 Introduction
5.2 Analytical Performance-Based Assessment Methods
5.3 Empirical Reliability Analysis Using Life Data
5.4 Exercise Problems
6. System Failure Probability Assessment
6.1 Introduction
6.2 Fundamental System Failure Definitions and Assessment Methods
6.3 Resilience
6.4 Bayesian Methods
6.5 Software Reliability
6.6 Network Attributes for Performance Assessment
6.7 Exercise Problems
7. Failure Consequences and Valuations
7.1 Introduction
7.2 Analytical Consequence and Severity Assessment
7.3 Fundamentals of Economic Valuation
7.4 Real Property Damage
7.5 Loss of Human Life
7.6 Disability, Illness, and Injury
7.7 Tort and Professional Liability
7.8 Indirect Losses
7.9 Public Health and Ecological Damages
7.10 Exercise Problems
8. Engineering Economics and Finance
8.1 Introduction
8.2 Fundamental Economic Concepts
8.3 Cash Flow Diagrams
8.4 Interest Formulae
8.5 Economic Equivalence Involving Interest
8.6 Economic Equivalence and Inflation
8.7 Economic Analysis of Alternatives
8.8 Risk Finance in Engineering Economic Analysis
8.9 Exercise Problems
9. Risk Treatment and Control Methods
9.1 Introduction
9.2 Philosophies of Risk Control
9.3 Risk Attitude in Investment Decisions
9.4 Types of Risk Treatments
9.5 Risk Homeostasis
9.6 Insurance for Loss Control and Risk Transfer
9.7 Benefit–Cost Analysis
9.8 Risk Financing by Specialty Insurance
9.9 Loss Exposure and Residual Risk
9.10 Exercise Problems
10. Data for Risk Studies
10.1 Introduction
10.2 Data Sources
10.3 Databases
10.4 Expert Opinion Elicitation
10.5 Model Modification Based on Available Data
10.6 Failure Data Sources
10.7 Exercise Problems
11. Risk-Based Maintenance of Marine Vessels: A Case Study
11.1 Maintenance Methodology
11.2 Selection of Ship or Fleet System
11.3 Partitioning of the System
11.4 Development of Optimal Maintenance Policy for Components
11.5 Maintenance Implementation and Development of Risk-Ranking Scheme
11.6 Optimal Maintenance Scheduling for the Overall Vessel
11.7 Implementation of Maintenance Strategies and Updating System
11.8 An Application: Optimal Maintenance Management of Ship Structures
A. Fundamentals of Probability
A.1 Sample Spaces, Sets, and Events
A.2 Mathematics of Probability
A.3 Random Variables and Their Probability Distributions
A.4 Moments
A.5 Common Discrete Probability Distributions
A.6 Common Continuous Probability Distributions
A.7 Summary of Probability Distributions
B. Multiple Random Variables
B.1 Joint Random Variables and Their Probability Distributions
B.2 Functions of Random Variables
C. Fundamentals of Statistics
C.1 Samples and Populations
C.2 Estimation of Parameters
C.3 Sampling Distributions
C.4 Hypothesis Testing for Means
C.5 Hypothesis Testing of Variances
C.6 Confidence Intervals
D. Failure Data
Biography
Bilal M. Ayyub is a professor of civil and environmental engineering and the director of the Center for Technology and Systems Management in the A. James Clark School of Engineering at the University of Maryland, where he has been since 1983. He is a leading authority in risk analysis, uncertainty modeling, decision analysis, and systems engineering. Dr. Ayyub earned degrees from Kuwait University and the Georgia Institute of Technology. He is a fellow of the ASCE, the ASME, and the SNAME, and a senior member of the IEEE. Dr. Ayyub has served on many national committees and investigation boards and completed numerous research and development projects for governmental and private entities, including the National Science Foundation; the U.S. Air Force, Coast Guard, Army Corps of Engineers, Navy, and Department of Homeland Security; and insurance and engineering firms. He has received multiple ASNE Jimmie Hamilton Awards for best papers in the Naval Engineers Journal, the ASCE Outstanding Research-Oriented Paper in the Journal of Water Resources Planning and Management, the ASCE Edmund Friedman Award, the ASCE Walter Huber Research Prize, the K.S. Fu Award of NAFIPS, and the Department of the Army Public Service Award. Dr. Ayyub is the author/co-author of more than 550 publications in journals, conference proceedings, and reports, as well as 20 books, including Uncertainty Modeling and Analysis for Engineers and Scientists; Risk Analysis in Engineering and Economics; Elicitation of Expert Opinions for Uncertainty and Risks; Probability, Statistics and Reliability for Engineers and Scientists, Second Edition; and Numerical Methods for Engineers. Richard H. McCuen is the Ben Dyer Professor of civil and environmental engineering at the University of Maryland. Dr. McCuen earned degrees from Carnegie Mellon University and the Georgia Institute of Technology. His primary research interests are statistical hydrology and stormwater management. He has received the Icko Iben Award from the American Water Resource Association and was co-recipient of the Outstanding Research Award from the ASCE Water Resources, Planning and Management Division. He is the author/co-author of over 250 professional papers and 21 books, including Fundamentals of Civil Engineering: An Introduction to the ASCE Body of Knowledge; Modeling Hydrologic Change; Hydrologic Analysis and Design, Third Edition; The Elements of Academic Research; Estimating Debris Volumes for Flood Control; and Dynamic Communication for Engineers.
