Risk, Reliability and Safety: Innovating Theory and Practice : Proceedings of ESREL 2016 (Glasgow, Scotland, 25-29 September 2016) book cover
1st Edition

Risk, Reliability and Safety: Innovating Theory and Practice
Proceedings of ESREL 2016 (Glasgow, Scotland, 25-29 September 2016)

ISBN 9781138029972
Published March 23, 2017 by CRC Press
520 Pages

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Book Description

Risk, Reliability and Safety contains papers describing innovations in theory and practice contributed to the scientific programme of the European Safety and Reliability conference (ESREL 2016), held at the University of Strathclyde in Glasgow, Scotland (25—29 September 2016). Authors include scientists, academics, practitioners, regulators and other key individuals with expertise and experience relevant to specific areas. Papers include domain specific applications as well as general modelling methods. Papers cover evaluation of contemporary solutions, exploration of future challenges, and exposition of concepts, methods and processes. Topics include human factors, occupational health and safety, dynamic and systems reliability modelling, maintenance optimisation, uncertainty analysis, resilience assessment, risk and crisis management.

Table of Contents

1. Accelerated test design and analysis

Development of process for adaptive lifetime estimation of mechanical assemblies using accelerated testing methods
J.-P. Hietala, P. Ojala, P. Multanen, J. Miettinen & P. Saarenrinne

Optimal design for accelerated degradation tests with stochastic model uncertainty
L. Liu, X.-Y. Li, T.-M. Jiang & Jian-Guo Zhang

Optimization of the dental implant testing based on FEM simulation of fatigue and accelerated life
A. Müller, M. Hinz & S. Bracke

Multivariable accelerated testing of seep through of humidity due to vibration in electric connector
P. Ojala, J. Pippola, J.-P. Hietala, J. Miettinen, L. Frisk, P. Julkunen & E.-L. Varpe

Methodology of the accelerated life test of a temperature sensor
Z. Vintr & D. Vališ

The method of analyzing accelerated degradation data based on acceleration factor constant principle
Hao-WeiWang, K.N. Teng & B.L. Gai

Combining nonparametric predictive inference and power-Weibull model for accelerated life testing
Y. Yin, F.P.A. Coolen &T. Coolen-Maturi

Research on accelerated degradation test for GaAs solar cells in LEO environment
Yuanxin Zhang, X. Ma, HanWang & H. Jiang


2. Accident and incident investigation and modelling

2.1 Aeronautics, aerospace and defence

Different accident levels between offshore and onshore helicopter operations—a comparison of socio-technical systems
R.J. Bye, S.O. Johnsen & G. Lillehammer

2.2 Chemical process industry

CFD dispersion simulations of liquid argon releases in a deep underground large scale cryogenic installation
E.C. Marcoulaki, A.G. Venetsanos & I.A. Papazoglou

Investigation of crane operation safety by analysing main accident causes
M.F. Milazzo, G. Ancione, V. Spasojevic Brkic & D. Vališ

Accounting for wind direction and speed fluctuations on the prediction of flammable cloud dispersion
A.M. Schleder & M.R. Martins

Risk based workload and staffing level analysis
L. Kotek, Z. Tuma, P. Blecha & L. Mukhametzianova

2.3 Critical infrastructure

Cascading effects during incidents: CascEff
A. Lönnermark & D. Lange

2.4 Maritime transportation

Marine navigation accidents and influencing conditions: An exploratory statistical analysis using AIS data and accident databases
A. Gilberg, E. Kleiven & R.J. Bye

The use of ‘big data’ in constructing loss-based performance indicators in the maritime industry
T. Kongsvik, R.J. Bye, P.G. Almklov & E. Kleiven

A discussion of risk influencing factors for maritime accidents based on investigation reports
M. Nilsen, P.G. Almklov, S. Haugen & R.J. Bye

TRACEr-MAR—applying TRACEr in a maritime context
J.-U. Schröder-Hinrichs, A. Graziano, G. Praetorius &A. Kataria

Some reflections on pre- and post-accident analysis for water transport: A case study of the Eastern Star accident
Y.Wang, E. Zio, S. Fu, D. Zhang & X.P. Yan

2.5 Nuclear industry

Use of level 2 PSA to support NPP operators training on severe accident
P. Groudev, P. Petrova, E. Kichev & K. Mancheva

Accident progression and radiological analyses of the interfacing system loss of coolant accident for a typical pressurized water reactor
S.Y. Park & K.I. Ahn

Accident measures feasibility study based on context evaluation of human performance in design extension conditions
G. Petkov & I. Petkov

2.6 Oil and gas industry

Improving accident investigation by evaluating the pre-accident risk assessment and management from a fundamental risk perspective
K. Bjørnsen &T. Aven

Accident risk assessment of refineries depending on configuration and geographic location
P. Burgherr, M. Spada, A. Kalinina, P. Eckle &Y. Pannatier

Analysis of dynamic positioning system accidents and incidents with emphasis on root causes and barrier failures
Y. Dong, B. Rokseth, J.E. Vinnem & I.B. Utne

Explaining the explosion onboard FPSO Cidade de São Mateus from regulatory point of view
C. Morais, A. Garcia, B. Silva, N. Ferreira &T. Pires

CFD simulation of a time varying release of LPG in geometrical complex environment
M. Pontiggia, M. Gerbec, J. Sužnik, M. Sbaouni & R. Lelong

Assessing the consequences of accidental releases from sour oil and gas facilities
C.G. Robinson &A.R. Halford

Perspective and criticalities of CFD modelling for the analysis of oil and gas offshore accident scenarios
A.C. Uggenti, A. Carpignano, L. Savoldi, R. Zanino & F. Ganci

2.7 Road transportation

Variables influencing the severity of motorcycle and moped traffic accidents in Spain
S. García-Herrero, M.A. Mariscal, R. Beltrán & J.M. Guitérrez

Preliminary analysis of accident data of one of the BRT lines in Mexico City
V. Ávalos-Bravo, D. Padilla-Pérez & J.R. Santos-Reyes

2.8 Other industries

Analyses of social accidents and culture: A discussion of the geopolitical migration
S. Ávila Filho, M.N.E. Fonseca & E.S. Bittencourt

Assessment of an accident using FMEA to a tailings dam, a mining event in Brazil
M.N.E. Fonseca & S. Ávila Filho

Learning from accidents: Investigating the genesis of human errors in multi-attribute settings to improve the organisation of design
R. Moura, M. Beer, E. Patelli, J. Lewis & F. Knoll


3. Analysis of natural hazards

3.1 Civil engineering/built environment

Earthquake preparation and risk perception: The case of high school students in Mexico City
T. Gouzeva, G. Santos-Reyes & J.R. Santos-Reyes

Quantification of evolving regional vulnerability to hurricanes
A. Reilly, S. Guikema, J. Garzon Hervas & C. Ferreira

Seismic risk analysis of the Italian built environment at territorial scale
A. Rasulo, M.A. Fortuna, G. Modoni & B. Borzi

3.2 Other industries

Propagating spatial and thematic uncertainties in mountain natural hazard assessment process
G. Dupouy, J.M. Tacnet, F. Bourrier, F. Berger, N. Crimier, K. Mekhnacha, M. Memier & E. Moulet-Vargas

How risk perception of natural hazards influences the content of risk and vulnerability analyses and the implementation of risk reduction measures
M. Leonhardsen, K.H. Olsen & O.E. Olsen

Modeling information quality and traceability in risk management and decision processes: Application to mountain natural hazards
L. Vidaud-Barral, J.M. Tacnet & F. Pinet


4. Bayesian models and statistical methods

Generalized method of moments for an extended gamma process
Z. Al Masry, S. Mercier & G. Verdier

Bayesian model calibration using subset simulation
Z.T. Gong, F.A. DiazDelaO & M. Beer

Small data and conflicting information
U. Sahlin

Sensitivity analysis for Bayesian networks with interval probabilities
S. Tolo, E. Patelli & M. Beer

New methods for the availability prediction with confidence level
P. Zeiler, F. Müller & B. Bertsche

4.1 Aeronautics, aerospace and defence

Application of Bayesian network in safety analysis on civil aircraft systems
HongliWang, D.M. Zhong &T.D. Zhao

An attempt to determine the lifetime distribution of a device for random function forms of expected value and variance of the Gaussian distribution
M. Zieja, M. Jasztal, S. Ste˛pie´n & M.Wa˙zny

4.2 Civil engineering/built environment

Approaches to Bayesian network structure elicitation
K. Zwirglmaier & D. Straub

4.3 Information technology and telecommunication

A Bayesian network for diagnosis of networked mobile robots
I. Sassi, A. Gouin & J.M. Thiriet

4.4 Manufacturing and supply chain/logistic systems

Risk analysis of supply: Comparative performance and short-term prediction
L.Walls, J. Quigley, M. Parsa & E. Comrie

4.5 Maritime transportation

Quantifying error in deterministic predictions based on phase-resolved linear wave models
F. Fucile, G. Bulian & C. Lugni

Regression models for the effect of environmental conditions on the efficiency of ship machinery systems
E. Vanem, A. Brandsæter & O. Gramstad

4.6 Mechanical systems and engineering

Methodological framework for estimation of failure rates for various high-voltage battery systems
T. Lehmann, O. Özgen & J. Keller

Reliability evaluation ofWiener degradation system based on Bayesian network
S. Miao, J. Yao, Y. Zhao, XiaohongWang, XiaohuiWang & X. Li

4.7 Nuclear industry

The use of structured expert judgment methods to aid in parameter estimations for data sparse problems
F. Brandford-Adams &A.B. El-Shanawany

4.8 Oil and gas industry

Reliability analysis and surrogate modelling of biodiesel filters
P.O. Hristov, F.A. DiazDelaO, K.J. Kubiak & U. Farooq

Asset integrity case development for normally unattended offshore installations: Bayesian network modelling
S. Loughney, J.Wang, D. Lau & D. Minty

Using Bayesian networks to quantify the reliability of a subsea system in the early design
Juntao Zhang, Yiliu Liu, M.A. Lundteigen & L. Bouillaut

4.9 Power and energy systems

A Bayesian hierarchical modelling for hydropower risk assessment
A. Kalinina, M. Spada, P. Burgherr, S. Marelli & B. Sudret

Physics-driven Bayesian model for current-voltage characteristics of solar cells
Y. Kong, Z.Ye & Z. Li

Demand forecasting over complex geographical networks: The case of Northern Gas Networks
K.J.Wilson, S.E. Heaps & M. Farrow

4.10 Road transportation

Development of tools for road infrastructure safety management for the provinces (voivodeships) in Poland
J.Wachnicka,W. Kustra, K. Jamroz & M. Budzy´nski


5. Crisis and emergency management

Planning and conducting crisis management exercises—what works and what does not?
T. Grunnan & H. Fridheim

How well do capability assessments reflect actual capability? An experimental study of capability assessments with multi-actor dependencies
M. Hanson, S. Severinsen & H. Lindbom

Toward an empirical clarification of societal safety and societal security—preliminary findings from interviews with leaders and key stakeholders in Norway
S. Høyland & K.A. Pettersen

Security culture—a sufficient explanation for a terrorist attack?
S.H. Jore

Risk management and social innovation: The example of the outage organization in a high risk industry
O. Guillaume & N. Lot

Challenges of measuring quality in emergency response
J.E. Lynette

A method for analysing security threats in operational risk analysis and management
S. Malerud & H. Fridheim

The (European) Union civil protection mechanism: A reliable crisis governance tool?
C. Morsut & B.I. Kruke

Scenario approaches as a means of handling emerging risks in society
E. Okstad

5.1 Critical infrastructure

Moving through crisis and resilience: An activity-centred CONOPs of CI organisations
M. Cooke & E. Murphy

Take it to the limits! Exploring the hidden, dynamic and emergent vulnerabilities of society
T.O. Grøtan & S. Antonsen

Risk-based investment allocation for infrastructure networks
S. Kunttu, T. Välisalo & J. Pirttimäki

Barriers that hamper the efficiency of Public-Private Partnerships (PPPs) in critical infrastructure protection
P. Marana, L. Labaka & J.M. Sarriegi

Toward resilient organization: Strengthening performance management in an era of turbulent change
R. Steen &T. Tangenes

Emergency management involving critical infrastructure disruptions: Operationalizing the deployment of resilience capabilities
P. Trucco, B. Petrenj, I. Kozine & H.B. Andersen

Possibilities of critical infrastructure protection against terrorism
M. Vašková, J. Barta & J. Johanidesová

An integrated framework for business continuity management of critical infrastructures
J. Xing & E. Zio

5.2 Maritime transportation

Development of a new evacuation simulation tool targeting real-time participation
G. Montecchiari, G. Bulian & P. Gallina


6. Decision making under uncertainty and expressing uncertainty

6.1 Civil engineering/built environment

Towards a risk management prototype for small and medium enterprises in the construction sector
A.E. Tamparopoulos & C. Oduoza

6.2 Critical infrastructure

Optimum post-disruption restoration for enhanced infrastructure network resilience: A fuzzy programming approach
Y.-P. Fang & G. Sansavini

Recovery of urban socio-technical systems after disaster: Reactive decision-making based planning under uncertainties of damage evaluation
V. Lubashevskiy, T. Kanno & K. Furuta

6.3 Information technology and telecommunication

Application and simulations of uncertainty multilevel models to ensure the ITS services
M. Stawowy & M. Siergiejczyk

6.4 Maritime transportation

Risk analysis of falsified automatic identification system for the improvement of maritime traffic safety
C. Iphar, A. Napoli, C. Ray, E. Alincourt & D. Brosset

6.5 Nuclear industry

A methodological framework to analyse coping based on the testimony of the Director of the Fukushima Dai Ichi nuclear power plant
A. Afrouss, A. Portelli & F. Guarnieri

Uncertainty and conservatism in safety cases
A. Bounds

6.6 Oil and gas industry

Uncertainty analysis incorporated to lifecycle cost analysis in the oil and gas industry
V. Borges

How to manage uncertainty when considering new or changed regulatory HSE requirements
L.I.K. Soerskaar & E.B. Abrahamsen

Risk assessments as input to decision making during design of oil and gas installations
V.L. Tuft, O.M.Wiggen, A.O. Torgauten, T.M. van Roosmalen, T. Holde, M. Sandøy &T. Aven

6.7 Power and energy systems

The ‘discrete forecast error scenarios’ method for grid reliability assessment in short-term planning under renewable generation and cross-border flows
G. Dogan, P.-E. Labeau, J.-C. Maun, J. Sprooten, M. Galvez & K. Sleurs

Planning cable installation activities for offshore wind farms including risk of supply delays
G. Leontaris, O. Morales-Nápoles &A.R.M.Wolfert

Modelling of uncertainty for continuity quality of power supply
M. Siergiejczyk & M. Stawowy

6.8 Rail transportation

How (not) to work with small probabilities: Evaluating the individual risk of railway transport
R. Andrášik, M. Bíl & R. Slovák


7. Dynamic reliability and probabilistic safety/risk analysis

7.1 Aeronautics, aerospace and defence

Reliability analysis for the process of DIMA dynamic reconfiguration
H.Y. Ju, S.Wang &T.D. Zhao

7.2 Maritime transportation

Dynamic risk and reliability assessment for ship machinery decision making
K. Dikis, I. Lazakis, A.L. Michala, Y. Raptodimos & G. Theotokatos

Imminent ships collision risk assessment based on velocity obstacle
Y. Huang, P.H.A.J.M. van Gelder & M.B. Mendel

7.3 Mechanical systems and engineering

Statistical analysis of field data for a proven-in-use assessment according to ISO 13849
N. Nowizki, P. Zeiler, B. Bertsche & H. Moedden

7.4 Nuclear industry

MCDET analysis: From input specification of uncertainties to the probabilistic evaluation of critical variables of dynamic systems
N. Berner & J. Scheuer

Dynamic features in large PSA studies
Y. Butkova, H. Hermanns, O. Bäckström, P. Krcal &W.Wang

Shutdown probabilistic safety assessment—method and results
M. Cˇepin & M. Antoncˇicˇ

Application of PRA for the assessment of defence-in-depth of a nuclear power plant
J.-E. Holmberg, O. Bäckström, M. Porthin &T. Tyrväinen

Dynamic reliability assessment and prognostics with monitored data for multiple dependent degradation components
J. Liu & E. Zio

7.5 Oil and gas industry

Real-time guidance system for cranes to manage risks due to releases of hazardous materials
G. Ancione, I. Kavasidis, G. Merlino & M.F. Milazzo

Resistance-based probabilistic design by order statistics for an oil and gas deep-water well casing string affected by wear during kick load
F. Di Maio, P. Baraldi, L. Brivio, E. Zio & C. Magno

Barrier indicators vs risk—informing operational risk management
A. Falck, R. Flage &T. Aven

Dynamic risk analysis for operational decision support
S. Haugen & N.J. Edwin

Aggregation and presentation of safety barrier status information
Å.S. Hoem, K. Øien, S. Hauge & L. Bodsberg

Interval estimation for degradation modeling of emerging contaminants based on multi-dimensionalWiener processes
L. Hong, Z. Ye & R. Ling

Application of Bayesian network to safety assessment of chemical plants during fire-induced domino effects
N. Khakzad, G. Reniers & G. Landucci

Monitoring of operational and organizational safety barriers
S.S. Kilskar, K. Øien, S. Hauge, Å.S. Hoem & L. Bodsberg

Reliability study of subsurface safety valve control system in oil wells
P.G.O. Oliveira, A. Braga & P.A.A. Garcia

A case of dynamic risk management in the subarctic region
N. Paltrinieri, T.O. Grøtan, M. Bucelli & G. Landucci

A dynamic evaluation methodology of risk level for defective high-pressure manifold
Q.Wang, L. Zhang, J. Hu, X. Zhang &W. He

7.6 Power and energy systems

Stochastic hybrid fault tree automaton for the production forecast of PV power plant
F. Famoso, F. Chiacchio, S. Brusca & D. D’Urso

7.7 Rail transportation

An importance measure based multi-state reliability and risk analysis for the subways
N. Ali, S. Si, M. An & L. ChangChun

Correlating train performance data with safety incidents: A preliminary case study for improving the understanding of the effects from train delay on safety risk across the GB rail network
C. Harrison & R.Weltz


8. Foundational issues in risk

Using an AFD threat identification-based approach to generate risk-reducing measures
A. Jensen &T. Aven

Safety and security—is there a need for an integrated approach?
S.H. Jore

Methodology for security risk assessments—is there a best practice?
M. Maal, O. Busmundrud & M. Endregard

A combined semantic and quantitative risk analysis approach: VBS/causality DL
G. Edwadr, F. Innamorati, M. Sallak & D. Lourdeaux

Qualitative versus quantitative risk assessment
F. Ye


9. Human factors and human reliability analysis

Consolidation of the human error assessment and reduction technique
J.C.Williams & J.L. Bell

9.1 Aeronautics, aerospace and defence

Preparing for human spaceflight to the Moon 2020–2030
T.M. Stene, B.E. Danielsen & D. Trevisani

9.2 Chemical process industry

Analysis of cognitive gaps: Training program in the sulfuric acid plant
S. Ávila Filho, M.N.E. Fonseca, A.L.A. Santos & C.N. Santino

9.3 Civil engineering/built environment

Performance shaping factors for human error analysis in construction projects
C. Bletsios, M. Papanikolaou &Y. Xenidis

9.4 Manufacturing and supply chain/logistic systems

Evaluation method of the waste processing system operation
R. Giel, M. Mły´nczak & M. Plewa

Modification of the HRA-method ESAT for improving human reliability in manual assembly
C. Kern & R. Refflinghaus

9.5 Maritime transportation

Establishing a central operation approval system in ship management companies based on a human reliability assessment model
O. Soner, E. Akyuz & M. Celik

Human reliability analysis of seafarers using CREAM method—the case of tanker shipping
Q. Zhou, Y.D.Wong, H. Xu &V. Van Thai

9.6 Mechanical systems and engineering

Human error probability estimation of maintenance activities in cold operating environment based on Bayesian network
Y.Z. Ayele &A. Barabadi

9.7 Nuclear industry

Rationalisation and updating of data on selected performance shaping factors
L.K. Ainsworth

As Low As Reasonable Assessment (ALARA): Applying discount usability to control room verification and validation
R.L. Boring

GOMS-HRA: A method for treating subtasks in dynamic human reliability analysis
R.L. Boring & M. Rasmussen

Quantifying human reliability analysis BBNs from partial information: Combining operational event analyses and expert judgment
L. Podofillini, L. Mkrtchyan &V.N. Dang

The implementation of complexity in computation-based human reliability analysis
M. Rasmussen & R.L. Boring

Advanced thermal hydraulic simulations for human reliability analysis
V. Rychkov, B. Brocard & K. Dawson

9.8 Oil and gas industry

Quantification of Performance Shaping Factors (PSFs) in maintenance tasks: Case study in a petrochemical plant
M. Jahangiri, N. Hoboubi & P. Farhadi

Experience and training as performance-shaping factors in human reliability analysis
K. Laumann & M. Rasmussen

Decomposition level of quantification in human reliability analysis
M. Rasmussen & K. Laumann

On use of the international standard ISO 14224 on reliability data collection in the oil and gas industry: How to consider failure causes from a human error perspective
J.T. Selvik & L.J. Bellamy

Human reliability in the petroleum industry: A case study of the Petro-HRA method
C. Taylor, S. Øie & N. Paltrinieri

9.9 Road transportation

Theoretical learning outcome of night driving. A comparison study of traditional real life training and simulator training
R. Robertsen, G.B. Sætren, P. Haukeberg & H. Sivertsen

9.10 Software systems

Attack tree analysis


10. Maintenance modelling and applications

10.1 Aeronautics, aerospace and defence

Development of unmanned aerial vehicles maintenance strategy under an asset management framework
P. Gonçalves, J. Sobral & L.A. Ferreira

The maintainability analysis and conceptual design of On-Orbit Service (OOS) system for space station
Z. Guo, D. Zhou & X. Zhou

10.2 Civil engineering/built environment

Inspection and maintenance optimization for OWT’s using Bayesian networks
W.M.G. Courage, M.P. Nicoreac & P.L. Kempker

10.3 Critical infrastructure

Perspective renewal model for water distributions systems
K. Pietrucha-Urbanik, D. Vališ & Z. Vintr

Bayesian network models for making maintenance decisions from data and expert judgment
H. Zhang & D.W.R. Marsh

10.4 Electronics and electrical engineering

A cost-benefit approach for the evaluation of prognostics-updated maintenance strategies in complex dynamic systems
J.I. Aizpurua, V.M. Catterson, F. Chiacchio & D. D’Urso

10.5 Information technology and telecommunication

A critical review of Information Assurance (IA) framework for condition-based maintenance of railway tracks
Y.K. Al-Douri & P. Tretten

10.6 Manufacturing and supply chain/logistic systems

Repairable items inventory optimization based on maintenance data and risk criteria
J. Sobral & C. Guedes Soares

10.7 Mechanical systems and engineering

Generalized renewal process based on the q-Weibull distribution for reliability applications
T.L. Corrêa, I.D. Lins, M.J.C. Moura & E. López Droguett

A preventive replacement scheduling model for multi-component system with lifetime limited components
J.X. Hou, Y.L. Qian, L. Li & X.S.Wen

Reliability assessment methodology for multiproduct and flexible industrial process
F. Kristjanpoller, A. Crespo, M. López-Campos, P. Viveros &T. Grubessich

Managing failures of spares and standby equipment
M.D. Norris

10.8 Nuclear industry

Availability modelling of ageing equipment addressing multiple items and failure causes
P. Martorell, I. Martón, S. Carlos, S. Martorell &A.I. Sánchez

10.9 Oil and gas industry

Condition-based maintenance for a system with redundancy and load sharing
M.C.A. Olde Keizer, R.H. Teunter & J. Veldman

Assessment of a condition-based maintenance policy for Subsea systems: A preliminary study
Yun Zhang, A. Barros &A. Rauzy

10.10 Power and energy systems

Forecasting for day-ahead offshore maintenance scheduling under uncertainty
J. Browell, I. Dinwoodie & D. McMillan

Time series semi-Markov decision process with variable costs for maintenance planning
R. Dawid, D. McMillan & M. Revie

Development of a condition monitoring system for an articulated wave energy converter by FMEA
C.J. Kenny, D. Findlay, I. Lazakis, J. Shek & P.R. Thies

VME a tool for probabilistic models valuation in engineering asset management
J. Lonchampt

10.11 Rail transportation

A risk-based model for inspection and maintenance of railway rolling stock
F. Dinmohammadi, B. Alkali & M. Shafiee

10.12 Road transportation

As good as looking new maintenances
Y. Dijoux, A. Grall & S.H. Le

10.13 Other industries

Selective maintenance for multi mission oriented systems
L.F.A. Ribeiro, C.A.V. Cavalcante &T.F.O. Rodriguez

General framework about graphical analysis for overall effectiveness management
P. Viveros, A. Crespo, F. Kristjanpoller, R. Stegmaier, E. Johns, T. Grubessich & L. Barberá


11. Management, governance, regulation and standards

11.1 Aeronautics, aerospace and defence

Whose risk: Tools for strategic risk management in complex organisations and systems—identifying a wood by summing the trees
A.D. Bain

Analyzing safety strategies at the front-end of projects
K. Fossum, B.E. Danielsen & C.H. Berg

What is the value of a standard?
M. Revie, T. Bedford, L.Walls, J. Shimell &T. Baldwin

11.2 Chemical process industry

Integrated management systems as a risk management tool: Combining ISO 9001, ISO 14001 & OHSAS 18001 standards in process industries
F.C. Emetumah

11.3 Civil engineering/built environment

Adaptation with small steps or a big step? A probabilistic approach of flood risk reduction in the Dutch Delta
J. Dokter, T. Botterhuis, M. Kok & H. VanWaveren

11.4 Critical infrastructure

Case studies of risk governance—a literature review
B. Arvidsson &A. Cedergren

11.5 Nuclear industry

Implementation of improvements to achieve a risk that is As Low As Reasonably Practicable (ALARP), As Soon As Reasonably Practicable (ASARP)
A. Bounds

Reliability requirements and use of risk applications for the reliability program in Canadian nuclear power plants
U. Menon, C. Morin &Y. Akl

11.6 Oil and gas industry

Techno-economic feasibility assessment of life extension decision for safety critical assets
I. Animah, M. Shafiee, N. Simms & M. Considine

Performance-based regulation of HSE and the role of regulatory guidance
Ø. Dahl, R. Rosness & U. Forseth

Dynamic barrier management
M. Fisher, S. Greenfield, H. Flotaker, A. Stokke & R. Pitblado

Criteria for implementation of risk analysis recommendations in oil and gas offshore production installations
C. Morais, E. Correia, A. Bravim & N. Ferreira

Optimizing process safety performance by improving visibility of safety management system barriers
E. Paton & D. Holland

Implications of a new perspective of risk in the Norwegian petroleum regulation
M. Roeyksund, O.A. Engen &T. Aven

Trapped by compliance? The voices of the regulator
R. Rosness, Ø. Dahl & U. Forseth

11.7 Rail transportation

The use of design targets in harmonisation of safety management in the European rail industry
D.J.K. Griffin & G. Bearfield

Risk management plan for metro station safe operation
T. Kertis & D. Prochazkova

The potential of ontologies for safety and risk analysis
C. van Gulijk, P. Hughes & M. Figueres-Esteban

11.8 Other industries

Reliability capability assessment of cooperative networks using the example of developing demonstrators of structured materials
F.V. Haase, M. Reinhold, R.Woll, M.Wolf & H. Seidlitz

Design for reliability and safety, supported by international standards
V. Loll

Moving forward or back? Changes in Norway’s risk governance strategy following the 2011 Oslo terror attacks
M. Nilsen, P.G. Almklov, E. Albrechtsen & S. Antonsen

Risk assessment—experts vs. lay people
T. Stålhane &T. Malm

Cooperation across government services: The relation between the Norwegian police and the Norwegian armed forces in the aftermath of the terror attacks of July 22nd 2011
K.Wasilkiewicz, A. Øren & S.O. Johnsen

Passive safety applications in high consequence systems
Y.M. Xiong, L.Y. Xiao, Ying Liu &Youjian Zhang


12. Mathematical methods and computational algorithms

Reliability analysis of noncoherent systems based on logical differential calculus
M. Kvassay, E. Zaitseva, J. Kostolny &V. Levashenko

A fast tree-scanning algorithm finding a compact expression for the structure function of a system with known minimal path(cut)-sets
J. Malinowski

Automating compositional safety analysis using a failure type taxonomy for component fault trees
F. Möhrle, M. Zeller, K. Höfig, M. Rothfelder & P. Liggesmeyer

Control of technical objects operation quality with the use of simulation modeling PE
Ł. Mu´slewski, K. Migawa & L. Knopik

The use of rough set to estimate the quality of objects recognition and localization
M. Stawowy &T. Targosi´nski

12.1 Aeronautics, aerospace and defence

Pitot sensor airflow measurement accuracy
W. Ezzeddine, J. Schutz & N. Rezg

Comparison of different methods for calculation of aircraft structure failure probability per single flight
M.Woch & D. Vališ

Outline of the method for assessing fatigue life on the basis of crack length density function using the J-integral
M. Zieja, M. Jasztal, S. Ste˛pie´n & M.Wa˙zny

12.2 Civil engineering/built environment

Modelling of a bounded stochastic degradation process based on a transformed gamma process
Y. Deng & M.D. Pandey

Reliability analysis of offshore wind turbine support structures using Kriging models
A. Morató, S. Sriramula & N. Krishnan

Improved method to Calculate Additional Ramps Explicitly (CARE2) in quantitative risk analysis for road tunnels
R.M.L. Nelisse &A.C.W.M. Vrouwenvelder

12.3 Critical infrastructure

Hidden risks in electric grids due to dependency on transportation networks
R. Vodák, M. Bíl, Z. Kˇrivánková, R. Andrášik & J. Kubeˇcek

Problems connected with determination of size of maximum expected disaster in selected site
D. Prochazkova & J. Prochazka

12.4 Electronics and electrical engineering

Weighted-graph models for reliability assessment: Extension to multi-state systems
J.F. Aubry & N. Brînzei

On some limiting theorems for different types of redundant systems
H. Schäbe & I. Shubinski

12.5 Information technology and telecommunication

Advanced computing methodology for general highly reliable systems
R. Bri˘s & P. Byczanski

Handoff rate in mobile networks: Dependence on the cell perimeter
C. Tanguy

12.6 Manufacturing and supply chain/logistic systems

A new idea to remanufacture safety-related components with respect to reliability
A. Krini, D. Jörg, J. Krini, O. Krini & J. Börcsök

Algorithm for optimal paths in multi-objective network
N. Takahashi, H. Yamamoto, T. Akiba, X. Xiao & K. Shingyochi

A new reliability improvement program for repairable products sold with two-dimensional warranty
Y.K.Wang & Q. Yu

Reliability modelling of automated guided vehicles using Petri nets
R.D. Yan, S.J. Dunnett & L.M. Jackson

12.7 Mechanical systems and engineering

Model selection with application to gamma process and inverse Gaussian process
M. Zhang & M. Revie

12.8 Nuclear industry

A formal definition of minimal cut sequences for dynamic, repairable and reconfigurable systems
P.Y. Piriou, J.M. Faure & J.J. Lesage

12.9 Oil and gas industry

Imperfect versus incomplete testing: Implications for safety
A. Hafver, D.V. Lindberg, S. Eldevik, F.B. Pedersen, J. Domingues & L.F. Oliveira

Accidental underwater release of CO2—CFD modelling of the underwater plume and the subsequent above water gas dispersion
A. Huser, P. Vollestad, N. Rivedal, K. Armstrong, T. Bengherbia, G. Ferrara & M. van Essen

12.10 Power and energy systems

Boolean approximation for calculating the reliability of a very large repairable system with dependencies among components
M. Bouissou & O. Hernu

Supply reliability and dynamic safety analysis of an alternative energy supply chain
Z.N.L. Hansen, F. Markert, P. Jacobsen, A.S.T. Schmidt & E. Touray

Probabilistic failure law fitting with a differential evolution algorithm
J. Lonchampt, E. Dautreme & N. Bousquet

12.11 Rail transportation

Reliability and exploitation analysis of power supply of alarm systems used in railway objects
M. Siergiejczyk &A. Rosi´nski

12.12 Software systems

AGenTS: Automatic generation of component fault tree stubs
M. Zeller & K. Höfig


13. Monte Carlo simulation for reliability, availability, maintenance and safety applications

13.1 Critical infrastructure

Identification and ranking of important elements in a gas transmission network by using ProGasNet
P. Praks &V. Kopustinskas

13.2 Electronics and electrical engineering

Component importance measures for complex repairable system
G. Feng, E. Patelli, M. Beer & F.P.A. Coolen

13.3 Maritime transportation

An assessment approach of maritime supply chain of energy vulnerability to piracy risk by simulation of spatial behavior
M. Tanguy &A. Napoli

13.4 Mechanical systems and engineering

Development of two methods for the characterisation of an automotive fleet behaviour based on the simulation of single car rides
M. Hinz, F. Hienzsch & S. Bracke

The choice of failure distribution for modelling the reliability and availability of a multi-component system
J.K. Visser

13.5 Oil and gas industry

Complex decision support using advanced availability modelling techniques
M. Rogers

13.6 Power and energy systems

Speed-up reliability assessment for multi-component systems: Importance sampling adapted to piecewise deterministic Markovian processes
H. Chraibi, A. Dutfoy, T. Galtier & J. Garnier

Optimizing energy production systems under uncertainty
A.B. Huseby

Composite system reliability assessment of different active power reserve planning strategies using probabilistic methods
E. Okur & G. Sansavini

13.7 Road transportation

Traffic accident hotspots: Identifying the boundary between the signal and the noise
R. Andrášik & M. Bíl

13.8 Rail transportation

Extended Bow-Tie model for asset risk and reliability modelling. Application to a passenger lift
M. Vileiniskis & R. Remenyte-Prescott


14. Occupational health and safety

Will atypical working patterns become typical in the UK: What are the implications for occupational health and safety?
H.A. Beers

Design of organization and safety measures for the reclamation from friable asbestos of an industrial area in Italy
L. Fedele

Bayesian network analysis of the influence of labour market variables on accident rates of workers in Spain
J.R. López-García, M.A. Mariscal, S. García-Herrero & J.M. Gutiérrez

Analysis of economic and structural factors on occupational accidents using a generalized linear model: Example of application to Spain
V. Gallego, S. Martorell &A.I. Sánchez

14.1 Manufacturing and supply chain/logistic systems

Synergies and trade-offs between OHS and productivity: An assessment method to support the design of new interventions
A. Rosti, P. Trucco & D. Masi

14.2 Oil and gas industry

A holistic approach to safety management in offshore oil and gas industry
D. Botheju & K. Abeysinghe

Models and tools for the simulation of exhaust dispersion in oil and gas offshore platforms
M. Impalà, A.C. Uggenti, R. Gerboni & F. Ganci

14.3 Road transportation

Health risk assessment of heavy metals from transport
M. Naplavova, F. Bozek, T. Kurek, J. Huzlik, I. Hoza & M. Pondelicek

Working in partnership to address the risks of transporting goods by road
N.C. Day


15. Optimisation methods for reliability, availability, maintenance and safety applications

15.1 Aeronautics, aerospace and defence

An industrial implementation of an optimization based method for balancing safety, reliability and weight of aircraft systems
C. Johansson, M. Derelöv, J. Ölvander, J. Bergström & H. Nilsson-Sundén

Reliability-based structural design optimization of a double-stage swirler
X. Liu, M. Huang, J. Yi & J. Xue

Arc-tracking and non-electrical fire considerations in helicopter environment
N. Verité & S. Bailly

Reliability modeling and optimization of the spray process for seal coatings on the aero-engine compressor casing
J. Xue, M. Huang, J. Yi & X. Liu

15.2 Critical infrastructure

Robust portfolio modelling methodological approach to GB gas grid risk analysis via a simplified network version
T. Sacco, G. Sansavini, M. Compare & E. Zio

15.3 Electronics and electrical engineering

Availability of distributed systems: A new paradigm
A. Segal &Y. Bot

15.4 Maritime transportation

Sources of structural failure in ship unloaders
G. Milana, K. Banisoleiman &A. Gonzalez

15.5 Power and energy systems

Dependability optimization of process-level protection in an IEC-61850-based substation
A. Altaher, S. Mocanu & J.M. Thiriet

15.6 Oil and gas industry

Bayesian approach for safety barrier portfolio optimization
A. Mancuso, M. Compare, A. Salo & E. Zio

Application of an integrated stochastic optimization and GIS framework to the design of a real scale crude oil pipeline system
E.C. Marcoulaki, A. Skretas & S. Gyftakis

Integrating reliability and maintenance methodologies to improve asset availability
A. Segal &Y. Bot

15.7 Rail transportation

Safety margins for the reconfigurations of trains’ compositions in motion
M. Pawlik

European rail transport management system mobile transmission safety analysis
M. Pawlik, M. Siergiejczyk & S. Gago


16. Organisational factors, safety culture and socio-technical modelling

16.1 Aeronautics, aerospace and defence

Corn flakes and safety culture improvement
E. Jacob, A. German & M. Shermon

Safety systems in product safety culture
L. Suhanyiova, R. Flin &A. Irwin

16.2 Agriculture and food industry

Organisational safety indicators in aquaculture—a preliminary study
I.M. Holmen, I.B. Utne & S. Haugen

Vulnerability assessment of passenger transport system—case study
A. Górecka, M. Nowakowska &A. Tubis

16.3 Civil engineering/built environment

A study on successful practices in a Norwegian company—a systematic approach and key contributing factors
A. Ekambaram, T.M. Stene, M. Hamre &T.O. Stupstad

16.4 Critical infrastructure

Operational improvement of systems and processes at critical infrastructure detection check sites
J.F. Urbanek, J. Johanidesová, J.J. Urbanek & J. Barta

16.5 Healthcare

Safety leadership influence on patient safety and the mediating role of unit safety climate
E. Olsen & M.T. Jensen

16.6 Information technology and telecommunication

General framework methodology to increase organizational learning in the field of asset management
T. Grubessich, P. Viveros, R. Stegmaier, F. Kristjanpoller, V. González-Prida & F. Pérès

16.7 Manufacturing and supply chain/logistic systems

Impact of experiential learning on safety climate: A case study
P. Cocca, F. Marciano, M. Alberti, M. Lambri & D. Lorenzi

16.8 Maritime transportation

Identification and implementation of Key Performance Indicators (KPIs) for achieving safer and resilient passengers shipping operations
V. Arslan, R.E. Kurt, E. Comrie, O. Turan & L. DeWolff

Internationalization of domestic transportation systems and safety
R.J. Bye & G.M. Lamvik

16.9 Nuclear industry

Sociotechnical aspects in safety regulation in the high-risk industries
M. Ylönen & O.A. Engen

16.10 Oil and gas industry

Which types of leadership behaviors can promote safety in an interorganizational context?
V. Milch & K. Laumann

Economic crisis in the Norwegian offshore industry: How may it affect safety conditions offshore operations?
K. Skarholt, G.M. Lamvik, S. Antonsen, J. Røyrvik & J.R. Jonassen

16.11 Rail transportation

From negative statements to positive safety
P. Hughes, M. Figueres-Esteban & C. van Gulijk

16.12 Other industries

The failure of knowledge-based task performance—a study of the police emergency response during the 22/7 terror attacks in Norway
R.J. Bye, P.G. Almklov, O.M. Nyheim, A. Gilberg & S.O. Johnsen

Vulnerability and prevention of fatal fires
G. Gjøsund, P.G. Almklov, K. Halvorsen & K. Storesund

Evolution of the inspection of the industrial plants: Towards a “privatization” of the safety?
V. Sanseverino-Godfrin


17. Prognostics and diagnostics

17.1 Aeronautics, aerospace and defence

Proposal of a new simulated annealing model-based fault identification technique applied to flight control EM actuators
M.D.L. Dalla Vedova, A. Germanà & P. Maggiore

Fluctuation feature extraction of satellite telemetry data and on-orbit anomaly detection
L. Zheng, J. Guang &T. Shihan

Combustion engine condition estimation based on indirect diagnostics data
D. Vališ, K. Hasilová & L. Žák

17.2 Electronics and electrical engineering

Test and evaluation of a fuzzy diagnostic model for PEFC
B. Davies, L. Jackson & S.J. Dunnett

A method for storage status assessment of electronic devices by model-based prognostics
Y. Zhao, G. Fu & E. Zio

17.3 Maritime transportation

An intelligent fault diagnosis system on ship machinery systems based on support vector machine principles
U. Ozturk, K. Cicek & M. Celik

17.4 Mechanical systems and engineering

Probabilities in safety of machinery—risk reduction effects by combination of full enclosure and fault detection in the process
H. Moedden

Deterioration modelling of contact surfaces for a friction drive system
D.J. Rodriguez, J.J. Martinez & C. Berenguer

17.5 Oil and gas industry

Bayesian belief networks for fault detection and diagnostics of a three-phase separator
M. Vileniskis, R. Remenyte-Prescott, D. Rama & J.D. Andrews

17.6 Power and energy systems

Cluster analysis of condition monitoring data
O. Fink, L. Jenni, H.S. Nguyen, N. Ponnudurai, S. Subbiah & S. Turrin

Predicting remaining life of transmission tower steelwork components
M. Segovia, V.M. Catterson, A. Stuart, L. Johnston, H. Bain, R. McPhaden, R.Wylie &A. Hernandez

17.7 Rail transportation

Data driven RUL estimation of rolling stock using intelligent functional test
A.H.S. Garmabaki, A.M.N.D.B. Seneviratne, M. Ahmadi, A. Barabadi & U. Kumar

17.8 Road transportation

A switching ensemble approach for remaining useful life estimation of electrolytic capacitors
S. Al-Dahidi, F. Di Maio, P. Baraldi & E. Zio

17.9 Software systems

Software fault detection in control systems
A.H.S. Garmabaki,W. Birk & J. Lindström


18. Reliability databases, collection and analysis

18.1 Manufacturing and supply chain/logistic systems

A comparative study of two failure models in throughput analysis of production lines
L. Li, Y.L. Qian & K. Du

Studies on information subsystem operation in container terminal based on simple example
J. ´ Swieboda & M. Zaj¸ac

18.2 Oil and gas industry

Improvements in the UK offshore hydrocarbon release database
B.J. Bain, S.Wakefield & R.J. Borresen

A hazard-based predictive approach for onshore gas transmission pipelines using historical failures
K. Pesinis & K.F. Tee

18.3 Power and energy systems

Failure and repair data analysis of power distribution systems: A case study
M. Aliyari, A. Barabadi, R. Barababadi &A.H.S. Garmabaki

Assessment and estimation of energy power sources availability
D. Vališ, K. Hasilová & J. Leuchter

18.4 Other industries

Reliability analysis of product fleets based on operating data: Separation of risky fleet parts and partial risk prognosis
S. Sochacki, C. Rosebrock & S. Bracke

Integrated reliability analysis in task of emission production orders in ERP system: A case study on a company’s sports segment
M.N.E. Fonseca, P. Carvalho, R. Kalid & S. Ávila Filho

Description of reliability content by using the ReliaLibrary web-database
F.V. Haase, F.P. Geithner & R.Woll


19. Resilience modelling and assessment

Resilience modeling of multi-state degradation systems based on aggregated stochastic processes
S.J. Du, R. Kang, Z.G. Zeng & E. Zio

Review of methods for measuring societal resilience and how they address critical infrastructures
H. Hassel & J. Johansson

Pandemic landscape of new strains of society
A. Øren, T.O. Grøtan & Ø. Dahl

19.1 Chemical process industry

Probabilistic vulnerability analysis of process facilities to external acts of interference
F. Argenti, V. Cozzani, G. Landucci & G. Reniers

19.2 Critical infrastructure

Towards resilience operationalization in urban transport system: The RESOLUTE project approach
E. Bellini, P. Nesi, L. Coconea, E. Gaitanidou, P. Ferreira, A. Simoes &A. Candelieri

Modeling and resilience assessment of a telephone communication network
D. Chao, Y.Watanabe, T. Kanno & K. Furuta

Analytical resilience quantification for critical infrastructure and technical systems
J. Finger, S. Hasenstein, U. Siebold & I. Häring

Calibrated resilience landscapes of composite protection: Theoretical grounding of an empirical approach
T.O. Grøtan & J. Bergström

Applying resilience concepts in crisis management and critical infrastructures—the DARWIN project
I. Herrera, T.O. Grøtan, R.Woltjer, B. Nevhage, S. Nilsson, J. Trnka, B. Adini, O. Cohen, R. Forsberg & C.O. Jonson

Analysis and comparison of three measures for system resilience
C. Jin, R. Li, R. Kang &Y. Yang

Capturing societal interdependencies from a flow perspective—part I: Method and model
J. Johansson, H. Hassel & L. Svegrup

The population contribution in crisis management: A case of uncertainty and resilience
B.I. Kruke

Novel techniques and approaches for risk based application of resilience concepts to critical infrastructure: An introduction to the IMPROVER project
D. Lange & D. Honfi

Identification of the electricity blackout impacts on the environmental security
A. Oulehlova

Critical infrastructure resilience index
C. Pursiainen, B. Rød, G. Baker, D. Honfi & D. Lange

Capturing societal interdependencies from a flow perspective—part II: Application
L. Svegrup, J. Johansson & H. Hassel

19.3 Information technology and telecommunication

A method for assessing resilience of socio-technical IT-systems
F. Landegren, S.M. Sulaman, P. Möller, M. Höst & J. Johansson

19.4 Manufacturing and supply chain/logistic systems

Logistic system resilience modelling—a dynamic, multiagent, service engineering oriented approach
L.A. Bukowski, J. Feliks & K. Majewska

19.5 Maritime transportation

Framework for quantitative resilience analysis of maritime transportation systems from risk perspectives: A case study of a ship stuck in ice in Arctic waters
S. Fu, D. Zhang, E. Zio, Y.Wang & X.P. Yan

Modeling epistemic uncertainty in resilience assessment for water transportation systems
Y.Wang, S. Fu, E. Zio, D. Zhang & X.P. Yan

19.6 Nuclear industry

Resilience activation in extreme situations: A literature review
C. Geoffroy, E. Rigaud & F. Guarnieri

19.7 Oil and gas industry

New strains—the emergence of cyber physical vulnerabilities
S.O. Johnsen

19.8 Rail transportation

Using gaming and resilience engineering principles to energize a situated resilience training of front-end operators and managers
T.O. Grøtan, I. Wærø, J.K.J. van der Vorm, F.A. van der Beek & D.C. Zuiderwijk

Vulnerability assessment of passenger transport system—case study
T. Nowakowski, A. Tubis & S.Werbi´nska-Wojciechowska

19.9 Other industries

Resilience assessment of internet of things: A case study on smart buildings
R. Mock, L. Lopez, Chr. Zipper & M. Schönenberger

Safety procedures at university campus: The implementation of evacuation exercises
A.L.A. Santos & M. Queirós


20. Risk and RAMS analysis applications

20.1 Aeronautics, aerospace and defence

The Markov forecasting model of landing states based on flight data
C. Hu, S. Zhou, Y. Xie &W. Chang

Risk analysis of equipment system-of-systems architecture based on entropy and brittleness
Z. Jiang, X. Pan &Y. Lin

Aerospace product process FMEA technology and its application
F. Li, L. Ren, J. Lin, Z. Li & S. Lin

20.2 Manufacturing and supply chain/logistic systems

Application of FRAM to risk assessment in manufacturing process
Z. Zheng & J. Tian

20.3 Maritime transportation

Effect of large initial ship stability on ship safety: An example study
G. Bulian, F. Bresciani, A. Francescutto & F. Fucile

20.4 Oil and gas industry

Evaluation of F&G detection coverage based on Norsok S-001
J.H. Park, T.Y. Lee, T.S. Choi, G.S. Kim, K.I. Nam & G. Mule

A qualitative analysis of the impact of permanent mooring system failures on FPSO production
N. Ramrattan &A. Monferini

20.5 Power and energy systems

Analysis framework for performance evaluation of reliability management in power systems with increased uncertainty
E. Heylen, G. Deconinck & D. Van Hertem

20.6 Rail transportation

Interfaces, functions and components based failure analysis for railway RAMS assessment
Q. Mahboob, B. Altmann & S. Zenglein

Systemic hazard identification using bow-tie approach
M. Mły´nczak


21. Software reliability models and safety assessment methods

21.1 Aeronautics, aerospace and defence

A safety analysis method with correlation of states for integrated modular avionics systems based on an extended generalized stochastic Petri net
R. Han & S.Wang

21.2 Electronics and electrical engineering

Developing and assuring complex critical data centric systems
I.M. Glazebrook

21.3 Nuclear industry

Integrating model checking and PRA: A novel safety assessment approach for digital I&C systems
J. Lahtinen & K. Björkman

21.4 Software systems

An application for early safety assessment to bridge the gap between design and automated dependability assessment
F. Chiacchio, C. Romano, F. Merlo, D. D’Urso, L. Compagno, D. Parker, M.Walker, Y. Papadopoulos & G. Manno

Extended approach for the prediction of critical errors in software systems
J. Krini, O. Krini, A. Krini & J. Börcsök

Implementation of a cloud-based service-oriented architecture for hardware control systems supported by neural network
O. Latka & J. Provost

Reliability analysis of open source software: A Bayesian approach considering both fault detection and correction processes
Yu Liu, M. Xie, L.Wang & Q. Hu

AMDesigner: An architecture modeling tool for the use in multi-disciplinary design projects
M. Rajabalinejad & G.M. Bonnema

Software reliability prediction using chaos theory and heterogeneous ensemble learning
H. Tong, B. Liu, Y.Wu & B. Xu

Safe software: A suitable case for an evidence-based treatment?


22. Structural reliability modelling

22.1 Aeronautics, aerospace and defence

Prediction of the P-S-N curve of mechanical component based on fatigue test data under random loading
Y.Wang, H. Cheng & L. Liu

22.2 Civil engineering/built environment

Assessment of structural reliability for punching
K. Jung & J. Markova

Analyses of imposed load models in current standards
J. Markova

Uncertainties in crack width verification of reinforced concrete structures
J. Markova & M. Sykora

Safety requirements for buildings under induced earthquakes due to gas extraction
R.D.J.M. Steenbergen &A.C.W.M. Vrouwenvelder

A novel damage detection approach using output-only responses based on mode shape identification and improved gapped smoothing method
Y. Zhou, J. He &W. Zhang

22.3 Mechanical systems and engineering

The probabilistic approach and its practical applications in medical and mechanical engineering
K. Frydrýšek

Reliability of components subjected to interacting corrosion and fatigue processes
B.J. Leira

The concept of a comparative assessment of the reliability of industrial gearboxes on the basis of diagnostic tests—a case study
M. Sokolski & P.M. Sokolski

Method of reliability assessment of pin joints in undercarriages of open-pit mining machinery—a case study
P.M. Sokolski

Condition monitoring and diagnostics as important factors for increasing the reliability of machinery components—case study
F.W. Przystupa, M. Sokolski & P.M. Sokolski


23. Systems reliability models and applications

Automatic generation of fault trees: A survey on methods and approaches
A. Berres & H. Schumann

Reliability and performance analysis of multi-state systems based on analytical load flow considerations
H. George-Williams, E. Patelli & M. Lee

Efficient availability assessment of reconfigurable complex multi-state systems with interdependencies
H. George-Williams & E. Patelli

Modeling dependent competing failure processes based on stochastic hybrid systems
M. Fan, R. Kang, Z.G. Zeng & E. Zio

23.1 Aeronautics, aerospace and defence

Modeling method of performance reliability for radar system based on parallel-in-weight model
J. Huang, A. Guo, Z. Ge & S. Zhang

The shape of things to come: A look at the different ways we approach predicting in-service reliability of new equipment
A. Mulholland

Evaluation of PFD of safety systems with time-dependent and test-step varying failure rates
L.F. Oliveira, J. Domingues, A. Hafver, D.V. Lindberg & F.B. Pedersen

Reliability modeling method of space mechanism considering coupling and cascading failure modes with hybrid uncertainty
P.D.Wang, Jian-Guo Zhang, J.Y. Sun, C.L. Tan &Yuqiang Liu

Numerical simulation on the fluctuation mechanism of instantaneous availability
Y. Yang, Y. Chen, Y.Q. Du & R. Kang

23.2 Civil engineering/built environment

Warranty analysis of a two-component system with failure interaction
N. Zhang, M. Fouladirad &A. Barros

Stochastic modelling of cascading failures in k-out-of-n system
H. Lee & J.H. Cha

23.3 Critical infrastructure

Analyzing controllability, efficiency and reliability of network systems by dynamic simulation
F. Han & E. Zio

Quantifying the importance of elements of a gas transmission network from topological, reliability and controllability perspectives, considering capacity constraints
F. Han, E. Zio, V. Kopustinskas & P. Praks

Component importance in infrastructure networks subject to spatially distributed hazards
A. Scherb, D. Straub, L. Garrè &Y. Yang

Risk and reliability assessment of the district heating network methodology with case study
I. Žutautait˙e, J. Augutis, R. Krikštolaitis, G. Dundulis, M. Valinˇcius & S. Rimkeviˇcius

23.4 Electronics and electrical engineering

Basic requirements for proven-in-use arguments
J. Braband & H. Schäbe

23.5 Information technology and telecommunication

Availability evaluation of the virtualized infrastructure manager in network function virtualization environments
M. Di Mauro, M. Longo, F. Postiglione, R. Restaino & M. Tambasco

23.6 Maritime transportation

Risk assessment of marine accidents in the Aegean Sea
I. Koromila, Z. Nivolianitou &T. Giannakopoulos

23.7 Mechanical systems and engineering

Safety and reliability of independent metering systems in mobile machinery
B. Beck & S.J.Weber

Error allocation for motion mechanism based on the kinematic accuracy reliability
X. Chen, X.-Y. Li, L. Liu & R. Kang

Reliability model of incomplete common cause failure systems subject to two kinds of common causes
R. Gu & J. Qin

Design-to-test: An approach to enhance testability of programmable controllers for critical systems—two case studies
C. Ma & J. Provost

Approach to analyse hydraulic or pneumatic control units
K. Pickard

Determination of reliability distributions and warranty costs based on qualitative quality assurance method
K. Pickard

Reliability evaluation of circular multi-state sliding window systems with bidirectional connecting abilities
J. Qin, R. Gu & J. Yang

23.8 Nuclear industry

Generic framework for the automated integration of impacts from hazards in PSA models
N. Berner & J. Herb

A new method for evaluation of the qualitative importance measures
A. Volkanovski &V. Matuzas

23.9 Oil and gas industry

New simulation model for evaluating the production availability of petroleum systems
C. Folleau, C. Vinuesa & S. Collas

Improving BOP reliability and availability through RAM analysis and expanded FMEA scope
K. Nouri, S.M. John & J. Alexander

Liquefaction technology from a reliability perspective
L. Tran, G. Cozon & C. Buccisano

Reliability assessment for subsea HIPPS valves with partial stroke testing
S.Wu, L. Zhang, S. Liu, Yiliu Liu, A. Barros & M.A. Lundteigen

Reliability analysis of gas turbine systems based on fault tree and Bayesian networks
Jiwang Zhang, L. Zhang, L. Duan & J.Wang

23.10 Power and energy systems

Risk and reliability assessment of future power systems
W.A. Bukhsh, K.R.W. Bell &T. Bedford

Assessing risks related to regional power distribution grids and security of electricity supply
E. Gramme &T. Eriksen

Impact of degraded communication on the reliability of electric networks: The application of grid splitting
D. Tian & G. Sansavini

23.11 Rail transportation

Decision making for railway operations using RAM analysis
C. Pistolas & G. Vernon

Experimental model of non-cohesive layers ground with reinforcement
A. Surowiecki & J. Ryczy´nski

23.12 Software systems

Redundancy handling with model-based systems engineering
N. Nguyen, F. Mhenni & J.Y. Choley

23.13 Other industries

Hazard and RAMS studies in a large telescope
S. Bellver, A. Pitigoi & P. Fernandez


24. Uncertainty and sensitivity analysis

Uncertainty quantification in bow-tie analysis: A mixed approach of fuzzy theory with Dempster-Shafer theory of evidence
H. Abdo & J.-M. Flaus

An extended BDD method for the assessment of system reliability under aleatory and epistemic uncertainties
A.J. Imakhlaf & M. Sallak

The variance-based importance measure analysis of the fuzzy failure criterion and its state dependent parameter solution
G.J. Li, Z.Z. Lu, C.Y. Xie & J. Qin

Fuzzy modeling of cardinal features of a complex technical system
M. Paja˛k

24.1 Aeronautics, aerospace and defence

Reliability analysis of cascade coupling space mechanism considering reliability influence factors and imperfect information
C.L. Tan, Yuqiang Liu, Jian-Guo Zhang, J.Y. Sun & P.D.Wang

Method for evaluation of the influence of LPV-200 procedures usage on the probability of CFIT
W. Kaleta & J. Skorupski

Fuzzy risk matrix as a tool for the analysis of the air traffic safety
J. Skorupski

24.2 Critical infrastructure

Imprecise probabilistic framework for power grids risk assessment and sensitivity analysis
R. Rocchetta & E. Patelli

Dimensionality reduction of the resilience model of a critical infrastructure network by means of elementary effects sensitivity analysis
P. Turati, N. Pedroni & E. Zio

24.3 Mechanical systems and engineering

Robust identification of low velocity impact events under different impactor stiffness
A. Beligni, C. Sbarufatti, A. Gilioli & M. Giglio

Uncertainty in process chains
O. Meyer, J. Keller & C.Weihs

24.4 Nuclear industry

Two interpretations of the risk increase factor definition
O. Bäckström, P. Krcal &W.Wang

State-of-the-art reactor consequence analyses project: Uncertainty analysis of a potential unmitigated short-term station blackout of the Surry nuclear power station
S.T. Ghosh, K.W. Ross, N.E. Bixler, S.J.Weber, C.J. Sallaberry & J.A. Jones

Development of advanced surveillance requirements of nuclear power plants using a risk-informed approach in the horizon 2020
S. Martorell, I. Martón, P. Martorell, J.F. Villanueva, S. Carlos, A.I. Sánchez & R. Mullor

A comparison between traditional BEPU and Extended-BEPU approaches for deterministic safety analysis on nuclear power plants
F. Sánchez–Sáez, S. Carlos, I. Martón, P. Martorell, J.F. Villanueva & S. Martorell

Gini out of the bottle: Global sensitivity analysis with distance correlation and energy statistics
E. Plischke & E. Borgonovo

A sensitivity analysis for the adequacy assessment of a multi-state physics modeling approach for reliability analysis
W.Wang, F. Di Maio & E. Zio

24.5 Power and energy systems

Evaluation of the impact of intermittent sources on smart grid equipments
D.N. Nguyen, E. Grall-Maës, P. Beauseroy, E. Deloux, Y. Dijoux & G. Malarange


25. Visualisation of risk

25.1 Critical infrastructure

Managing major hazard industry risk
I. Travers &A. Aitken

25.2 Maritime transportation

Visualizing and gauging collision risk
M.B. Mendel & P.H.A.J.M. van Gelder

25.3 Mechanical systems and engineering

Reliability engineering in face of shorten product life cycles: Challenges, technique trends and method approaches to ensure product reliability
S. Bracke, M. Hinz, M. Inoue, E. Patelli, S. Kutz, H. Gottschalk, B. Ulutas, C. Hartl, P. Mörs & P. Bonnaud

25.4 Nuclear industry

Influence of trust in institutions on public acceptance of nuclear power from a historical context across nuclear countries
P. Mlejnkova, E. Patelli, C. Grundy & Z. Hodgson

25.5 Oil and gas industry

CATES (Consequence Assessment Tool for pipelines Emergency Situations)
O. Baldan, E. Funnemark, A. Huser & J. Ingvarson

Advanced risk visualization for the offshore industry
V. Mittal, V. Borges & K. Shaba

Basic approach to the risk assessment of natural gas pipelines
P. Fuchs, J. Kraus & J. Novák

Risk mapping in quantitative risk analysis for oil and gas facilities
G. Maggioli, R. Gerboni, A. Carpignano & F. Ganci

Multidimensional risk evaluation: Information visualization to support a decision-making process in the context of natural gas pipeline
C. Medeiros, M.H. Alencar, T.V. Garcez &A.T. de Almeida

25.6 Power and energy systems

A method for visualisation of uncertainty and robustness in complex long-term decisions
J. Hanski &T. Rosqvist

25.7 Rail transportation

Ontology network analysis for safety learning in the railway domain
M. Figueres-Esteban, P. Hughes & C. van Gulijk

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Lesley Walls is a Professor in the Department of Management Science at the University of Strathclyde, a Chartered Statistician and a Fellow of the UK Safety and Reliability Society. Her research interests include reliability modelling and risk analysis. Her work spans statistical methodology development and industry-facing applications. Lesley has been an Associate Editor of IEEE Transactions on Reliability and is a project leader for standards developed by the International Electrotechnical Committee on Dependability (IEC TC56).

Matthew Revie is a Senior Knowledge Exchange Fellow at the University of Strathclyde. His research interests include reliability, availability and maintainability modelling, expert judgement and decision analysis. He has worked on over 25 applied research projects with more than 15 different organisations and has co-founded two industry facing research units. Matthew is on the editorial board of the IMechE Journal of Risk and Reliability, on the Board of Directors for the European Safety and Reliability Data Association, and a Fellow of the Operational Research Society.

Tim Bedford is Professor of Management Science and Associate Deputy Principal (Knowledge Exchange) at the University of Strathclyde. His research aims at combining fundamental theoretical advances - particularly around probability and consequence modelling - with applications to real-life problems. He holds an Honorary Doctorate in recognition of his work in risk analysis, from the Faculté Polytechnique de Mons, and has recently been elected a Fellow of the Royal Society of Edinburgh, Scotland’s National Academy. Tim is a Fellow of the UK Safety and Reliability Society, a Fellow of the Institute for Mathematics and its Applications, and a member of the Editorial Board of Reliability Engineering and System Safety.