1st Edition

Russian Warfare in the 21st Century An Incentive-Opportunity Intervention Model

By Dani Belo Copyright 2026
292 Pages 26 B/W Illustrations
by Routledge

292 Pages 26 B/W Illustrations
by Routledge

This book provides a comprehensive analysis of Russia's foreign policy in gray zone conflicts, with a particular focus on its interventions in Ukraine. Challenging conventional views, the book contends that Russia's use of varied gray zone tactics is influenced by both system-level incentives and domestic-level opportunities, which are integrated here into the Incentive-Opportunity Intervention... Read more

Chapter 1: The Value of Combining System and Domestic Dimensions to Explain Gray Zone Conflict Behavior  Chapter 2: Incentive-Opportunity Intervention Model: Combining System Incentives and Domestic Costs of Gray Zone Coercion  Chapter 3: Russia’s Campaign in Abkhazia: Assessing the High Incentive and Opportunity for Gray Zone Coercion   Chapter 4: Russia’s Gray Zone Engagement in Crimea: The Cost-Benefit Analysis of Deploying the “Little Green Men”  Chapter 5: Russia’s Gray Zone Activities in Odesa: Assessing the Low Incentive and Opportunity for Coercion  Chapter 6: Russia’s Gray Zone Engagement in Kharkiv: Assessing the Low Incentive and Opportunity for Coercion  Chapter 7: Russia’s Restrained Gray Zone Coercion in the Donbas: A Function of Moderate Benefits and Uncertain Costs  Chapter 8: Russia’s Militarized Campaign in Ukraine After 2022: A Continuation of an Old Pattern  Chapter 9: Conclusion

Biography

Dani Belo is an Assistant Professor of International Relations and Security and Director of the Global Policy Horizons Research Lab, Webster University in St. Louis, USA.