1st Edition

Safety, Reliability and Risk Analysis Beyond the Horizon

    During the last decade there have been increasing societal concerns over sustainable developments focusing on the conservation of the environment, the welfare and safety of the individual and at the same time the optimal allocation of available natural and financial resources. As a consequence the methods of risk and reliability analysis are becoming increasingly important as decision support tools in various fields of engineering. In this book, the risk and reliability research community looks beyond the horizon. The technology we deploy to fix today’s problems is based on research that started more than two decades ago. What we are doing today should make a difference for tomorrow. Developing innovative new knowledge and applications helps engineers to better play the important role they have for society in establishing the basis for decision making.

    Safety, Reliability and Risk Analysis: Beyond the Horizon contains the papers presented at the 22nd European Safety and Reliability (ESREL 2013) annual conference in Amsterdam, The Netherlands. The abstracts book (785 pages) + full paper CD-ROM (3426 pages) cover a wide range of topics for which risk analysis forms an indispensable field of knowledge to ensure sufficient safety: Uncertainty Analysis, Accident and Incident Modeling, Human Factors and Human Reliability, System Reliability, Structural Reliability, Safety in Civil Engineering, Quantitative Risk Assessment, Prognostics and System Health Management, Occupational Safety, Mathematical Methods in Reliability and Safety, and Maintenance Modeling and Applications. Applications in different industrial areas are shown: Natural Hazards, Land Transportation, Aeronautics Aerospace, Chemical and Process Industry, Critical Infrastructures, Manufacturing, Security, Nuclear Industry, Energy, Maritime Transportation, and Information Technology.

    Plenary lectures

    Better science does not make decisions easier
    B.J.M. Ale

    Deep and shallow uncertainty in messaging climate change
    R.M. Cooke

    Reliability assessment of wind turbines
    J.D. Sørensen

    Multi layer safety: A generally efficient solution or work for all
    J.K. Vrijling

    Reliability based structural design
    A.C.W.M. Ton Vrouwenvelder

    1 Accident and incident modeling

    1.1 Aeronautics aerospace

    On primitives of causality: From the semantics of agonist and antagonist to models of accident causation and system safety
    L. Brevault, F.M. Favaró & J.H. Saleh

    Human dependability in space control operations—a HOT perspective
    S.O. Johnsen, T. Stene & T.Ø. Kongsvik

    1.2 Chemical and process industry

    Safety review process—a methodology for qualitative verification of safety measures
    E. Alijagic & V.N. Dang

    Bird’s accident ratio: The validity within the South African fertiliser manufacturing industry
    J. Anderson & J.K. Visser

    Thermal behavior of a semibatch reactor during upset conditions as a function of dosing and temperature controller type
    S. Copelli, V. Torretta, M. Derudi, R. Rota, C.S. Cattaneo & G. Nano

    Case study of tank explosion caused by wastewater without flash point
    P. Danihelka, P. Dobes & J. Marek

    Observability in depth: Novel safety strategy to complement defense-in-depth for dynamic real-time allocation of defensive resources
    F.M. Favaró & J.H. Saleh

    Fire and explosion analysis for LNG fuelled ship
    K.H. Kim, K.P. Chang, G.H. Han, J.M. Kwak & S.T. Kim

    Towards an understanding of information needed when planning offshore activities
    S. Sarshar, A.B. Skjerve & S. Haugen

    Application of emergency planning criteria for the control of major accident hazards—calculation of the consequences of fire accidents
    J. Skřínský, V. Sluka, J. Senčík, M. Pražáková & S. Malý

    1.3 Critical infrastructures

    Improved nomenclature schemes for Component Fault Trees and State/Event Fault Trees
    K.B. Jamboti, C. Gómez, O. Mäckel & P. Liggesmeyer

    1.4 Energy

    Subsea gas plumes and dispersion above sea
    A. Huser, T. Bengherbia, P. Skjetne, J.E. Olsen & W. Postvoll

    Analysis of causal factors related to three different event types on the Norwegian continental shelf: Hydrocarbon leaks, lifting incidents and fires in electrical installations
    B.A. Mostue, P.C. Sandvik, A. Steen-Hansen & K. Storesund

    A new approach to prevention of accidents based on the application of control charts
    A.P. Sant’Anna, G.B.A. Lima, L. Aizemberg, P.A. de Almada Garcia & V.C. Rios

    1.5 Land transportation

    GIS multicriteria pedestrian crossing risk assessment in bus rapid transit
    P.P.S. de Souza & I.C.L. Junior

    1.6 Maritime transportation

    Characterization of chemical release from marine accident—experimental analysis of n-butanol behavior in seawater column
    L. Aprin, M. Fuhrer, F. Heymes, P. Slangen, G. Dusserre & S. Le Floch

    Comparison of the learning algorithms for evidence-based BBN modeling: A case study on ship grounding accidents
    M. Arsham, S. Otto-Ville Edvard, H. Noora, M. Jakub & K. Pentti

    Stochastic Coloured Petri Nets as a modelling language for complex Event Trees
    O. Nývlt, L. Ferkl & S. Haugen

    1.7 Natural hazards

    Safety of a domestic LPG tank submitted to a forest fire
    F. Heymes, L. Aprin, S. Forestier & G. Dusserre

    1.8 Nuclear industry

    Application of the Risk-Informed Decision Making process to the moderator subcooling margins issue in a Pressurized Heavy Water Reactor (PHWR)
    A. Bujor, R. Gheorghe, M. El-Hawary, A. El-Jaby, J. Szymanski & P. Wan

    1.9 Security

    Scenario classes and scenario analyses for chemical disaster emergency planning
    M. Endregard & T. Grunnan

    Towards a decision support system for disaster management
    S. Moehrle

    2 Human factors and human reliability

    2.1 Aeronautics aerospace

    Reliable operations in control centers, an empirical study
    A.B. Mohammad, J.P. Johansen & P.G. Almklov

    When to worry? The relationship between modeled risk and perceived risk among helicopter pilots
    R.J. Bye, R. Ekle, B. Heide, B. Aasprang & S. Antonsen

    Control room training and certification for space operations
    B.E. Danielsen & T.M. Stene

    Monitoring human and organisational factors in spaceflight operations
    K. Fossum, C.H. Berg, T.Ø. Kongsvik, P. Almklov & S.O. Johnsen

    Tool for collaborative work analysis based on distributed cognition analysis—ATC work case study
    S. Inoue, M. Brown, K. Shiomi, S. Moran & K. Nakata

    Improving human resilience in space and distributed environments by CRIOP
    S.O. Johnsen & T. Stene

    2.2 Chemical and process industry

    Evaluation of risk communication in regard of SEVESO II Directive implementation in Czech
    B. Baudisova, J. Rehacek, J. Dlabka & P. Danihelka

    SHERPA: A Systematic Human Error Reduction and Prediction Approach to modelling and assessing human reliability in complex tasks
    D. Embrey

    Analysis of organizational factors for Probabilistic Risk Analyses (PRAs)
    M. Gajdosz, T. Bedford & S. Howick

    Hunting high and low for resilience: Sensitization from the contextual shadows of compliance
    T.O. Grøtan

    Modeling contractor and company employee behavior in high hazard operation
    P.-H. Lin, D. Hanea & B.J.M. Ale

    Assessing the quality of collaboration in an Integrated Operations organization
    A.B. Skjerve, E. Nystad, G. Rindahl & S. Sarshar

    2.3 Critical infrastructures

    Achieving compliance through people: Training leaders and supervisors to tackle procedural non-compliance
    P. Leach, R. Canham & J. Berman

    Safety of patient handover in emergency care—results of a qualitative study
    M.A. Sujan & P. Spurgeon

    2.4 Energy

    Approaches to human error probability data collection: Field studies using expert judgment-based methodologies
    D. Embrey

    Human reliability—an analysis of proportional success × fails scenarios for adjusting assessment and management risk to reality—applied to hydroeletrical energy generation
    C.L.S. Figueirôa, E.M. Assis, G.C. Lima, P.V. Fleming, I. Freitas & A.C. Garcia

    Lessons from aviation: Applying threat and error management framework to cases from the offshore drilling industry
    S.A. Kvalheim & S. Haugen

    Myths and representations in French nuclear history: The impact on decommissioning safety
    C. Martin, A. Portelli & F. Guarnieri

    Teamwork competence requirements in nuclear power plant control rooms
    A.B. Skjerve, M. Kaarstad & L. Holmgren

    2.5 Information technology and telecommunications

    Writing short alarm messages: A matter of education, training and practice
    H.M. Jagtman

    2.6 Land transportation

    Resilience engineering in railways—results from a systemic accident and event analysis in German railways
    M. Arenius & O. Sträter

    Patterns of proactive safety behaviors in the transportation sector
    C.S. Fugas, S.A. Silva & J.L. Meliá

    Influential factors on human performance in railways and their interrelations
    T. Lindner, B. Milius, D. Schwencke & K. Lemmer

    2.7 Manufacturing

    Safety management of safety performance-what factors to measure?
    L.J. Bellamy, O.N. Aneziris, I.A. Papazoglou, M. Damen, H.J. Manuel, M. Mud & J.I.H. Oh

    The influence of shift work in the use of hearing protection devices
    S. Costa & P.M. Arezes

    Promoting safety during process variability: A multidisciplinary challenge
    A.S.P. Moraes, P.M. Arezes & R. Vasconcelos

    2.8 Maritime transportation

    The relationship between regulation, safety management systems and safety culture in the maritime industry
    T.Ø. Kongsvik, K.V. Størkersen & S. Antonsen

    The RMS Titanic disaster seen in the light of risk and safety theories and models
    J.I. Håvold

    Self Rescue Model-SeReMo-a model to determine the effects of human behaviour and safety measures on the consequences of a hazardous material release-development of the new triage injury model and self-rescue for fire and explosion accidents
    I.J.M. Trijssenaar, M.J. van der Horst, M. Simons & R.P. Sterkenburg

    Study on the effect of ship-ship communication on anti-collision performance
    J.F. Zhang, X.P. Yan, D. Zhang & S. Haugen

    2.9 Nuclear industry

    Impact of team characteristics on crew performance: An object based modeling and simulation approach
    M. Azarkhil & A. Mosleh

    Proposals for the establishment of an operating experience feedback organisation
    V. Bringaud

    Qualitative human event analysis with simulator data by using HuRAM+ and HERA
    S.Y. Choi & W. Jung

    Interest of combining two human factor approaches for the evaluation of a future teamwork
    C. De La Garza, H. Pesme, P. Le Bot & J.-P. Labarthe

    Different way of looking at the HRA process
    R. Doležal

    Human failure event dependency modeling and quantification: A Bayesian network approach
    N.J. Ekanem & A. Mosleh

    Diagnostic strategy in APR1400
    D.Y. Kim & J. Kim

    Advanced probabilistic dynamics analysis of fire fighting actions in a Nuclear Power Plant with the MCDET tool
    M. Kloos, J. Hartung, J. Peschke & M. Röwekamp

    Leveraging existing human performance data for quantifying the IDHEAS HRA method
    H. Liao, K. Groth, S. Stevens-Adams & J. Xing

    Nuclear decommissioning: From case-studies to a proposed typology of risk
    M.P. de Borde, C. Martin & F. Guarnieri

    Performance factors for the analysis of crew responses to Nuclear Power Plant simulated emergencies
    J. Park & V.N. Dang

    Representation of parameter uncertainty in Bayesian Belief Networks for Human Reliability Analysis
    L. Podofillini, D. Pandya & V.N. Dang

    A review of the current status of HRA data
    S. Prvakova & V.N. Dang

    A DFM/ATHEANA human failure analysis of a digital control system for a pressurizer
    J.M.O. Pinto, P.F. Frutuoso e Melo & P.L.C. Saldanha

    Status and needs on Human Reliability Assessment of complex systems
    O. Sträter, M. Arenius & M. Jenerich

    2.10 Security

    Anticipating the consequences of change on safety performance: A proposed methodological framework
    E. Rigaud & T. Cote

    3 Maintenance modeling and applications

    3.1 Chemical and process industry

    A framework for selection of inspection intervals for well barriers
    E.B. Abrahamsen & J.T. Selvik

    Comparison of strategies for optimal maintenance within utility industries
    J.I. Ansell, T.W. Archibald, R. Murray & T. Poole

    An algorithm for root cause analysis integration based on OTSM-TRIZ: Complex problemanalysis
    C. Nikulin, G. Cascini, P. Viveros, R. Stegmaier & L. Barbera

    Maintenance optimisation for integrated planning
    H. Rødseth

    3.2 Critical infrastructures

    Two models of imperfect delayed repair for a continuously monitored system subject to an accumulative deterioration
    I.T. Castro & S. Mercier

    Road infrastructures for risk management: From regional to local dynamics
    S. Freiria, A.O. Tavares & B. Ribeiro

    Functional and technical end-of-service estimates for hydraulic structures
    M.J. Kallen, R.P. Nicolai, W.D. van der Wiel, A. Willems, E.L.E. van den Dungen & H.E. Klatter

    A holistic modelling framework for railway infrastructure asset management
    D. Rama & J.D. Andrews

    Components replacement decision by survival analysis based on categories of elevator operational parameters
    T. Yano, M. Sato & E. Kinoshita

    Applying RAMSSHEEP analysis for risk-driven maintenance
    W. Wagner & P.H.A.J.M. van Gelder

    Value of monitoring in road network management
    M. Zouch, W. Courage & O. Napoles-Morales

    3.3 Energy

    Trading off asset performance and condition to model strategic maintenance decisions
    E. Barlow, M. Revie, T. Bedford & L. Walls

    A condition based model using performance data for strategic asset maintenance in a water utility
    C. Jirsak, T. Bedford, M. Revie & L. Walls

    Analysis of wind and wave data to assess maintenance access to offshore wind farms
    J. Dowell, A. Zitrou, L. Walls, T. Bedford & D. Infield

    A multi-criteria decision model to determine intervals of preventive maintenance with equipment reliability degradation due to imperfect maintenance
    E.M.P. Hidalgo & G.F.M. de Souza

    Some contributions of reliability modeling for managerial changes in maintenance policies of physical asset of gas distribution system
    G.A.C. Lima, M.H. Carvalho, A. Elias Jr. & S. Rodrigues

    Economic and risk replacement model for physical assets in a natural gas distribution’s system
    G.A.C. Lima & A.M.T. Filho

    Multiobjective optimization of preventive maintenance applied to onshore wind turbines
    A.I. Sánchez, S. Martorell, M. Villamizar, I. Martón & S. Carlos

    Condition based maintenance for offshore wind turbines: The effects of false alarms from Condition Monitoring systems
    A. May & D. McMillan

    Influence of logistic strategies on the availability and maintenance costs of an offshore wind turbine
    F.P. Santos, A.P. Teixeira & C.G. Soares

    Modeling the relationship between wind turbine failure modes and the environment
    G. Wilson & D. McMillan

    A reactive multi-component maintenance policy for offshore wind turbines
    W. Zhu, M. Fouladirad & C. Bérenguer

    3.4 Information technology and telecommunications

    Maintenance analysis and optimization of a distribution network from practice
    R. Briš, R. Goňo & S. Rusek

    Achieving high availability levels of a deteriorating system by optimizing condition based maintenance policies
    A.N. Platis, V.P. Koutras & S. Malefaki

    3.5 Land transportation

    Application of advanced programming production tools to maintenance services scheduling
    C.L.S. Figueirôa

    A prognostic algorithm based on probabilistic graphical models for a periodically observable system
    J. Foulliaron, L. Bouillaut, P. Aknin, A. Barros & R. Rozas

    Genetic algorithm for selective maintenance optimization of multi-mission oriented systems
    A. Khatab, M. Dahane & D. Ait-Kadi

    The CoVeR method for the maintenance of a rail corridor
    N. Lyngby & T. Myklebust

    A stochastic railway track maintenance model
    D.R. Prescott, J.D. Andrews & F. De Rozières

    Road network modelling for maintenance planning
    C. Yang, R. Remenyte-Prescott & J. Andrews

    Block inspection policy for non-series technical objects
    A. Jodejko-Pietruczuk & S. Werbińska-Wojciechowska

    Data gathering problem in decision support system for means of transport maintenance processes performance development
    T. Nowakowski & S. Werbińska-Wojciechowska

    Decision support system for means of transport maintenance processes performance: A case study of rail buses
    K. Bojda, I. Dziaduch, T. Nowakowski & S. Werbińska-Wojciechowska

    3.6 Manufacturing

    Reengineering defense products through a risk-based framework: How can maintenance go further?
    G.E.C. Barbosa & G.F.M. Souza

    Application of data mining in a maintenance system for failure prediction
    P. Bastos, I. Lopes & L. Pires

    Development of method failure analysis and risk related to industrial lubrication applied in food industry machinery
    M. Belinelli & G.F.M. de Souza

    (MRL, τ) grouping policy for complex structure systems
    H.-C. Vu, P. Do Van & A. Barros

    A computerized system for maintenance management of assembly lines
    R. Costa, I. Lopes, C. Machado & J.M. Cabral

    A predictive maintenance strategy for multi-component systems using importance measure
    K.-A. Nguyen, P. Do Van & A. Grall

    Some results of Bayesian approach on Brown-Proschan model
    T. Nguyen, Y. Dijoux & M. Fouladirad

    On the use of predictive information in a joint maintenance and inventory policy
    A. Van Horenbeek, L. Pintelon, P. Scarf & C. Cavalcante

    Optimal preventive maintenance schedule for single multi-functional machine using a modified reliability-centered method
    M. Yu, Y. Zhang, J. Gao & D. Zhang

    Performance and risk based service development by means of RAMS+C modeling and analysis
    P. Zeiler & B. Bertsche

    3.7 Nuclear industry

    A practical analysis of the degradation of a nuclear component with field data
    P. Baraldi, M. Compare, A. Despujols, W. Lair & E. Zio

    A stochastic process model for life cycle cost analysis of nuclear power plant systems
    J.A.M. van der Weide & M.D. Pandey

    3.8 Security

    A bivariate delay-time model
    M.D. Berrade, P.A. Scarf & C.A.V. Cavalcante

    Exploring the use of the Analytic Hierarchy Process for maintenance policy selection
    A.J.M. Goossens, R.J.I. Basten & L.A.M. van Dongen

    An imperfect replacement policy for a periodically tested system with two dependent wear indicators
    H.H. Pham & S. Mercier

    Simulation based comparison of predictive maintenance policies
    T. Tinga & R.H.P. Janssen

    4 Mathematical methods in reliability and safety

    4.1 Aeronautics aerospace

    Fatigue Crack Growth in structures under random spectrum loading: Markov chain Monte Carlo methods for parameter identification
    M. Corbetta, C. Sbarufatti, A. Manes & M. Giglio

    Fuzzy expert aircraft onboard control systems assistant
    J. Żurek & N. Grzesik

    Solar array reliability assessment considering radiation degradation effects
    L. Yi, X. Hengyan, H. Li & L. Yufeng

    Reliability assessment of 12N bipropellant thruster system for geostationary satellite
    L. Fengchun, L. Yi, X. Hengyan & H. Li

    4.2 Chemical and process industry

    A case study of a MCS method vs. a Markov method in a RAM analysis of a FPSO unit
    C. Lundtofte & S. Solibakke

    Markov Chain method in dynamic fault tree with reparable components
    O. Yevkin

    4.3 Critical infrastructures

    Stochastic simulation of AltaRica 3.0 models
    M. Batteux & A. Rauzy

    Hierarchical Bayesian model for gas transmission network reliability
    T. Iešmantas & R. Alzbutas

    Non-homogeneous degradation models: A review and some new results
    Ch. Paroissin

    Water Supply System operation regarding consumer safety using Kohonen neural network
    K. Pietrucha-Urbanik & B. Tchórzewska-Cieślak

    AltaRica 3.0 project: Compile Guarded Transition Systems into Fault Trees
    T. Prosvirnova & A. Rauzy

    Model-based safety assessment: AltaRica 3.0 project
    T. Prosvirnova, M. Batteux & A. Rauzy

    GraphXica: A language for graphical animation of models
    T. Prosvirnova, M. Batteux, A. Maarouf & A. Rauzy

    Stochastic shock models for degrading infrastructure systems via Phase-Type distributions
    J. Riascos-Ochoa, M. Sanchez-Silva & R. Akhavan-Tabatabaei

    A hierarchical decision making framework for vulnerability analysis
    T. Wang, V. Mousseau & E. Zio

    A note on the ratio of the extreme to the root of the sum of squares in sequences of absolute values of Gaussian variables
    M.A. Odijk & P.H.A.J.M. van Gelder

    4.4 Energy

    Availability growth and state-of-knowledge uncertainty simulation for offshore wind farms
    A. Zitrou, T. Bedford, L. Walls, K. Wilson & K. Bell

    Critical comparison of two user friendly tools to study Piecewise Deterministic Markov Processes (PDMP): Season 2
    M. Bouissou, H. Chraïbi & I. Chubarova

    New likelihood based goodness-of-fit tests for the Weibull distribution
    M. Krit, O. Gaudoin, M. Xie & E. Remy

    Statistical estimation of a POD function
    M. Keller & A.-L. Popelin

    Failure prediction for monitored systems
    B.H. Lindqvist & V. Slimacek

    A method of computing the inter-state transition intensities for multi-state series-parallel systems
    J. Malinowski

    Stochastic modeling of wind turbine drivetrain components
    H.M. Rafsanjani & J.D. Sørensen

    Failure rate of wind turbines modeled by Homogeneous Poisson Process with covariates and unobserved heterogeneity
    V. Slimacek & B.H. Lindqvist

    Bounding and estimating failure probabilities in monotonic structural reliability frameworks: First improvements and applications
    R. Sueur, A.-L. Popelin & V. Moutoussamy

    Mathematical methods and approaches to PFD-calculation by the PDSTool
    J. Vatn

    4.5 Information technology and telecommunications

    Regression modeling of survival data from surgery operations
    K. Janurová, R. Briš & L. Martínek

    Influence of recovery time on telecommunications network unavailability
    C. Tanguy & N. Benameur

    Computational commutative algebra for tight network reliability bounds
    E. Sáenz-de-Cabezón & H.P. Wynn

    4.6 Land transportation

    Integrated RAMS analysis methodology: The railway case study
    E. Calixto

    Methodical approach for analysing different stress factors by means of different usage behaviour on the basis of field data
    F. Plinke, C. Guennel, A. Meyna & D. Althaus

    Comparison of compound Poisson processes as a general approach towards efficient evaluation of railway safety
    J. Braband & H. Schäbe

    Selected mathematical functions used for operation data information
    D. Valis, L. Zak, A. Walek & K. Pietrucha-Urbanik

    Safety measure issues in passenger transportation system performance: Case study
    A. Tubis & S. Werbińska-Wojciechowska

    A general continuous time and space approach to the evolution of corrosion in pipelines
    E.P. da Silva

    4.7 Manufacturing

    Interdisciplinarity as a success factor—service and reliability planning integrated in a production model
    D. Appel, G. Lanza, K.O. Genssler & N. Stricker

    RAPP: A new approach for risk prognosis on technical complex products in automotive engineering
    S. Bracke

    Statistical analysis of step-down stress accelerated life testing
    W. Luo, C. Zhang, X. Chen & Y. Tan

    Two sided criteria ranking under uncertainty
    M. Rajabalinejad

    4.8 Maritime transportation

    A model for evaluating performance and reliability of the voluntary maritime rescue system in the Gulf of Finland
    F. Goerlandt, F. Torabihaghighi & P. Kujala

    4.9 Natural hazards

    Experimental results about the assessments of conditional rank correlations by experts: Example with air pollution estimates
    O. Morales-Nápoles, A.M. Hanea & D.T.H. Worm

    4.10 Nuclear industry

    A simple yet efficient acceleration technique for Monte Carlo simulation
    M. Bouissou

    Component importance for systems with semi-Markov dynamics at steady state: A numerical case study
    M. Hellmich & H.-P. Berg

    Multi-state physics model for the reliability assessment of a component under degradation processes and random shocks
    Y.H. Lin, Y.F. Li & E. Zio

    Event trees analysis based on functional decomposition
    V. Matuzas & S. Contini

    4.11 Security

    The influence of initial uncertainties in stochastic degradation modeling
    Y. Deng, A. Barros & A. Grall

    Semi-formal modeling of risk management process and application to chance management and monitoring
    C.A. Schoppe, I. Häring & U. Siebold

    Analysis of time evolution of load cycles in steel structures
    J. Kracík & P. Skalný

    Deterioration process classification using automatic balance between attributes and covariates
    X.Z. Wang, E. Grall-Maës & P. Beauseroy

    5 Occupational safety

    5.1 Chemical and process industry

    An innovative tool for choosing the most appropriate risk assessment methodologies
    S. Ansaldi, P. Agnello, M. Monti, O. Arcudi & F. Giannini

    Bow-tie approach for improved auditing procedures at “Seveso” establishments
    P.A. Bragatto, S. Ansaldi, F. Antonini & P. Agnello

    Bayesian tools for the prediction of occupational accident statistics based on safety performance indicators
    E.C. Marcoulaki, M. Konstandinidou & I.A. Papazoglou

    A semi-quantitative risk assessment method in process plants: Huntsman tioxide Europe—Ternate plant experience
    S. Muré, G. Camuncoli, P. Loro, M. Demichela & E. Pilone

    Economic analysis of occupational risk prevention: A case study in a textile company
    D.G. Ramos, P.M. Arezes & P. Afonso

    Application of RFID technology for supporting effective risk management in chemical warehouses
    P.A. Bragatto, A. Pirone & M.G. Gnoni

    5.2 Energy

    Occupational risk for wind farms
    O.N. Aneziris, I.A.P.A. Psinias & A. Psinias

    Safety at the sharp-end: A case study in the gas sector
    H. Blazsin, F. Guarnieri & C. Martin

    Alcohol, drugs and their possible effects on human performance and offshore safety
    A.D. Lauvsnes

    Slip, trip and fall accidents in a large forest enterprise
    P.A. Tsioras, C. Rottensteiner, K. Stampfer & A.E. Tamparopoulos

    5.3 Information technology and telecommunications

    The contribution of ontologies to the creation of knowledge bases for the management of legal compliance in occupational health and safety
    A.J. Vigneron, F. Guarnieri & B.J.M. Rallo

    5.4 Manufacturing

    Managing new recruit safety risks: An integrated model
    C.D.B. Burt

    Serious occupational accidents of non-Dutch workers in The Netherlands
    P.H.G. Berkhout, M. Damen, L. Bellamy, M. Mud, H.J. Manuel & J. Oh

    Improving OHS through the sharing of knowledge on interventions: Guidelines and future directions for the development of ontology-based theoretical models
    D. Masi & E. Cagno

    Barriers to OSH interventions in Small and Medium-sized Enterprises: An overview of the situation and an exploratory study
    D. Masi & E. Cagno

    Drivers for OSH interventions in Small and Medium-sized Enterprises: An overview and some exploratory evidence
    D. Masi & E. Cagno

    Development of an instrument to analyze the occupational risk acceptance
    M.A. Rodrigues, P.M. Arezes & C.P. Leão

    How to balance between compliance to requirements and safe adaption to situations in the construction industry
    E. Sandberg & E. Albrechtsen

    Safety in construction?
    P. Swuste

    Advances tools for occupational accidents data analysis for prevention purposes
    M. Demichela, G. Baldissone & R. Luzzi

    Near-miss and accident event: An integrated analysis in an automotive firm supplier
    S. Andriulo, M.G. Gnoni & P. Nardone

    5.5 Maritime transportation

    Risk assessments, Key Shipboard Operations and soft barriers in offshore operations
    B.M. Batalden & A.K. Sydnes

    No swans in sight—analyzing the resilience in Norwegian water passenger transport
    K.V. Størkersen & J.P. Johansen

    5.6 Natural hazards

    Probabilistic study of overheating discomfort in residential building
    Z. Sadovský, O. Koronthályová, P. Mihálka, P. Matiašovský & K. Mikulová

    5.7 Security

    A quantitative analysis of health, safety and environment policy in France
    A.T. Audiffren, F. Guarnieri, C. Martin & B.J.M. Rallo

    OHS certification and legal compliance management in France: A quantitative survey
    A.T. Audiffren, F. Guarnieri & B.J.M. Rallo

    Alarm detection in noise work environments: The influence of hearing protection devices
    N. Costa, S. Abreu & P.M. Arezes

    Weighting Table: A broader view for the ergonomic intervention
    I.F. Loureiro, C.P. Leão & P.M. Arezes

    Control of the industrial risks during the technology transfer: The case of the textile industry of Batna, Algeria
    S. Marref, L. Bahmed, M. Djebabra & A. Benoudjit

    First overview of the relationship between quantitative dynamic operational resilience and the Dutch Fire Services occupational safety and quality management program Cicero
    J.M.P. van Trijp & A. Breur

    6 Prognostics and system health management

    6.1 Aeronautics aerospace

    Prognosis and health monitoring applications in satellite systems
    K. Etienne, S. Bosse, T. Laloix & A. Cabarbaye

    Methodological issues and pitfalls of short safety culture questionnaires
    H.M. Jagtman, F. Koornneef, R. Akselsson & S. Stewart

    6.2 Chemical and process industry

    Failure vs. deficiency in mechanical systems: Characteristics and clarification of a confusion
    M. Pourgol-Mohammad & F.S. Oskouyi

    6.3 Critical infrastructures

    Dynamic monitoring of safety barriers in petroleum installations
    A. Omerovic, A. Refsdal & Ø. Rideng

    6.4 Energy

    On the limits and possibilities of stress testing for assessing system safety performance in the oil and gas industry
    J.D. Khorsandi, T. Aven & J.E. Skogdalen

    A stochastic model for competing degradations
    S. Mercier, L. Bordes, E. Remy & E. Dautrême

    Monitoring the risk picture by using QRA and barrier based indicators
    E. Okstad, S. Hauge, R.K. Tinmannsvik & J. Vatn

    6.5 Information technology and telecommunications

    A case study for fleet-wide semantic based predictive diagnostic
    G. Medina-Oliva, A. Voisin, M. Monnin, N. Kosayyer & J.-B. Léger

    6.6 Land transportation

    Functionality and dependability assurance in massively networked scenarios
    J.I. Aizpurua & E. Muxika

    RAMS analysis: How reliability engineer and risk analysis tools can be applied to improve asset management on train life cycle
    E. Calixto

    Extreme learning machines for predicting operation disruption events in railway systems
    O. Fink, U. Weidmann & E. Zio

    6.7 Manufacturing

    A deterioration model for feedback control systems with random environment
    D.N. Nguyen, L. Dieulle & A. Grall

    6.8 Nuclear industry

    Short-term prediction for Nuclear Power Plant failure scenarios using an ensemble-based approach
    J. Liu, V. Vitelli, R. Seraoui, F. Di Maio & E. Zio

    The development of the MFM Editor and its applicability for supervision, diagnosis and prognosis
    H.P.-J. Thunem

    7 Quantitative risk assessment

    7.1 Aeronautics aerospace

    Manual handling operations in an air shipping company: A comparison between risk evaluation methods
    C.S. Cattaneo, M. Derudi, G. Nano, R. Rota, S. Copelli, V. Torretta & M. Raboni

    ATC sector capacity as a measure of air traffic safety
    J. Skorupski

    7.2 Chemical and process industry

    Further development of a method to calculate frequencies of loss of control including their uncertainty
    B.J.M. Ale, C. van Gulijk, D. Hanea, P. Hudson, P.H. Lin, S. Sillem, M. Steenhoek & D. Ababei

    Study on the optimal design for gas detectors using response surface method
    K. Baek & T. Lee

    Simulating gas blowout in tropical shallow waters: Comparison with the Northeastern Brazilian coast field experiments
    F. Leite, M. Silva, M. Araújo, R. Silva & E. Droguett

    Key Performance Indicators and Bayesian Belief Network based risk model as a management tool-results from the case study
    M. Gerbec & B. Kontić

    Left-hand side BBN model for process safety
    C. van Gulijk, D.H. Hanea, K.Q. Almeida, M. Steenhoek, B.J.M. Ale & D. Ababei

    Risk-based design for implementation of SIS functional safety in the offshore industry
    S.T. Kim, K.P. Chang & Y.H. Kim

    A GIS-tool for the vulnerability mapping of industrial facilities potentially exposed to volcanic Na-Tech events
    G. Ancione, M.F. Milazzo, E. Salzano & G. Maschio

    The use of integrals and CFD tools to evaluate the cloud dispersion of flammable and toxic substances leakages
    A.M. Schleder & M.R. Martins

    The potential of QRA audit tools in industrial fire and explosion protection
    A. Leksin, R. Mock & U. Barth

    Combining dynamic process simulation and Monte Carlo simulation for risk-based design
    Y. Noh & D. Chang

    Critical risk factors for LNG regasification terminals
    L.F. Oliveira, P. Tavares, C. Felcini & F.L. Brutto

    Towards a dynamic risk and barrier assessment in an IO context
    N. Paltrinieri, S. Hauge, M. Dionisio & W.R. Nelson

    PSA applied to the design of non-nuclear plants
    T. Ruiz-Sánchez, P.F. Nelson, J.L. Francois & M.J. Cruz-Gómez

    Initial achievements in Norwegian oil and gas industry project to reduce the number of hydrocarbon leaks
    W. Røed & J.E. Vinnem

    Performance analysis of inorganic materials for fire protection of industrial equipment
    F. Argenti, G. Landucci, A. Tugnoli & V. Cozzani

    A creative risk analysis algorithm to support the spare part decision
    P. Viveros, R. Tapia, E. Johns, F. Kristjanpoller & C. Nikulin

    Modelling point-in-time risk: A decision support tool based on work activities and risk influencing events
    X. Yang & S. Haugen

    Integrated dynamic decision analysis: A method for PSA in dynamic process system
    M. Demichela

    7.3 Critical infrastructures

    Contributions to validation of knowledge based risk models
    T. Askeland & D. Häger

    Collective water supply systems risk analysis model by means of RENO software
    K. Boryczko, I. Piegdon & M. Eid

    A federated model for the critical infrastructure resilience and economic loss for the European Union
    B. Dorneanu & G. Giannopoulos

    Integrated resilience and risk analysis framework for critical infrastructures
    R. Filippini & E. Zio

    Multidimensional risk assessment of underground electricity distribution systems based on MAUT
    T.V. Garcez & A.T. de Almeida

    Comparison of 3D visualization options for quantitative risk analyses
    R. Kaufmann & I. Häring

    Societal consequences of critical infrastructure vulnerabilities: Integrating power system and regional inoperability input-output models
    J. Johansson, L. Svegrup & H. Hassel

    Presenting a traceability based approach for safety argumentation
    V. Katta, T. Stålhane & C. Raspotnig

    Review of computer based approaches for modeling and simulating critical infrastructures as Socio-Technical Systems
    F. Landegren, J. Johansson & O. Samuelsson

    Probabilistic model of individual risk considering fire dynamics, controls and failure probabilities of Fire Protection Systems
    E. Nachtigall

    Simulation-based characterisation of Critical Infrastructure system resilience: Application to a snowfall scenario
    B. Petrenj, M. De Ambroggi & P. Trucco

    Criteria risk analysis of facilities for electricity generation and transmission
    D. Řehák, P. Danihelka & A. Bernatík

    Amount of labour of water conduit repair
    A. Studziński

    A discussion of Basel II and operational risk in the context of risk perspectives
    D. Häger & H.B. Vormeland

    Risk identification and fuzzy system-based risk analysis for airport projects
    Y. Xenidis & N. Gkoumas

    7.4 Energy

    Multidimensional risk evaluation in natural gas pipelines: Environmental aspects observed through a multicriteria decision model
    M.H. Alencar, E.M. Krym, M.F. Marsaro & A.T. de Almeida

    Comparative risk assessment of severe accidents in the energy sector based on the ENSAD database: 20 years of experience
    P. Burgherr, P. Eckle & S. Hirschberg

    Forecasting long term jack up vessel demand for offshore wind
    D. McMillan & I. Dinwoodie

    An economical FMEA-based risk assessment approach for wind turbine systems
    F. Dinmohammadi & M. Shafiee

    Probabilistic risk analysis of distributed generation curtailment in a saturated grid
    F. Faghihi, P.E. Labeau, J.C. Maun, V. De Wilde, A. Vergnol & F. Dunon

    Blowout risk caused by position loss during DP drilling operations
    T. Gjerde, H. Chen & M. Haatuft

    Power system unit commitment: Probabilistic modeling of generating capacities availability
    B. Gjorgiev, D. Kančev, A. Volkanovski & M. Čepin

    Quantitative risk analysis applied in well construction and workover: A methodological overview with real cases
    C.M.C. Jacinto, P.A. de Almada Garcia & E.A.L. Droguett

    Comparison of the resistance to disturbances in development scenarios of the electricity system
    J. Augutis, V. Matuzienė & R. Krikštolaitis

    Development of a gas transmission network reliability model: A case study
    P. Praks & V. Kopustinskas

    From generic to plant-specific reliability indicators: A pragmatic sequential methodology
    E. Remy, A. Léger, H. Chraïbi, O. Leinen & J.-Y. Ségura

    Quantitative Risk Analysis of an LNG terminal using two-step Bayesian analysis
    M.A. Ramos & E.A.L. Droguett

    A new ‘T-Book’ approach
    V.H. Swaling & M. Gudmundson

    Risk analysis of production units in a power station using Bayesian networks
    M. Sykora, M. Holicky & J. Markova

    Principles for dynamic updating and visualization of the risk picture with a QRA-basis
    J. Vatn

    Modelling systemic risks to inform a repowering decision
    L. Walls, J. Quigley, T. Houghton, S. Howick & F. Ackermann

    7.5 Information technology and telecommunications

    Workflow fault tree generation through model checking
    L. Herbert & R. Sharp

    A second chance for risk assessment in IT system analysis?
    R. Mock, H. Straumann & A. Fischer

    7.6 Land transportation

    Design-stage QRA for indoor vehicular hydrogen fueling systems
    K.M. Groth, J.L. LaChance & A.P. Harris

    Risk-informed safety requirement of Platform Screen Doors for Urban Rail Transit System in a mega city
    Q. Mahboob, M. Kunze, G. Radczimanowski & J. Trinckauf

    Comparison of safety-related decision-making processes in nuclear and railways
    H.-P. Berg, S. Griebel & B. Milius

    Risk assessment of the road transportation concerning dangerous goods
    M. Młyńczak

    Risks analysis for assessing safety in railway tunnel
    F. De Felice, A. Petrillo & M.G. Gnoni

    7.7 Manufacturing

    EN ISO 13849-1—new quantitative requirements for functional safety in the machine tool industry
    B. Guennel, F. Plinke, A. Meyna, M. Schlummer & H. Moedden

    Design of a Human Reliability Assessment model for structural engineering
    J. de Haan, K.C. Terwel & S.H.S. Al-Jibouri

    Multivariate manufacturing process validation: Risk minimization within high-precision dental tool manufacturing
    M. Pospiech, J. Michalski & S. Bracke

    Method for the monetary quantification of failure risks in production
    M. Plutz, R. Schmitt & T. Jussen

    7.8 Maritime transportation

    Human fatigue in a ship bridge management team—a Bayesian approach
    J. Akhtar & I.B. Utne

    ISPS port risk assessment: Getting the most out of the process?
    G. Linkmann, E. Holder & F. Motz

    Setting goals and functional requirements for Goal-Based Standards (GBS) Safety Level Approach (SLA) for ships
    S.M. John & J.E. Ballesio

    Safety assessment of alternative to liquid seal in marine vapor control system
    B.J. Park, M.S. Ki, H.J. Kang, J. Choi & D. Lee

    Integrated oil spill risk analyses as a decision-making tool for response planning
    A. Lentz, C. Jürgensen & M. Utko

    7.9 Natural hazards

    New risk monitoring tools for the construction and erection phase of large industrial projects
    A. Baker, E. Salvador, M. Forte, M. Barison & P. Gaiardelli

    Non-stationary climatic influence of inter-epidemic periods on Dengue in Brazil
    M. Araújo, D. Veleda, P.R.G. Barrocas, F.F.M. Moraes, R. Montagne & E. Lopez

    Emergency plans modeling: Toward an assessment tool
    C. Girard, E. Piatyszek, P. David & J.M. Flaus

    Probabilistic assessment of storage facilities involved in flood events: Damage models development and application
    G. Landucci, A. Necci, G. Antonioni, A. Tugnoli, V. Cozzani, D. Gheorghiuc & A. Ozunuc

    Model-based risk assessment for schistosomiasis in a Brazilian context
    H.O. Duarte, E.L. Droguett, M.C. Moura, E. Gomes, C. Barbosa & V. Barbosa

    Vulnerability of infrastructure to Sea Level Rise: A combined outranking and system-dynamics approach
    F.N. Tonmoy & A. El-Zein

    Assessment of the losses due to business interruption caused by large-scale floods
    J. Vilier, M. Kok & R.P. Nicolai

    7.10 Nuclear industry

    A combination of Gaussian Processes and Principal Component Analysis for prediction of radionuclide migration
    F. Cadini, D. Avram & E. Zio

    Licensing criteria for particle accelerators categorization
    E.L.C. Costa & P.F. Frutuoso e Melo

    Update of methods and data for fire PSA in Germany
    M. Röwekamp, S. Einarsson, B. Forell, J. Herb & M. Türschmann

    Verification of limiting conditions described in technical specification using plant-specific single AOT criteria
    Sh. Poghosyan, G. Kanetsyan & A. Amirjanyan

    7.11 Security

    Phenomena disturbing the Europe security and tasks for future research
    D. Procházková

    Quantitative risk analysis in radiotherapy using Bayesian networks
    A. Reitz, E. Levrat & J.-F. Pétin

    8 Safety in civil engineering

    8.1 Aeronautics aerospace

    PRA based lunar landing buffer risk analysis
    J. Wang, L. Li, Z. Cheng, Q. Wu & J. Yang

    8.2 Chemical and process industry

    Improving proactive major accident prevention by new technology and work processes
    E. Albrechtsen, T.O. Grøtan & S. Haugen

    8.3 Critical infrastructures

    Calibrating shaft and base resistance factors for design of drilled shaft foundations
    D. Bach, P.H.A.J.M. van Gelder & M.B. Hudson

    Risk approach to land reclamation: Feasibility of a polder terminal
    K.T. Lendering, S.N. Jonkman & D.J. Peters

    Alternative procedures for the assessment of road safety barriers
    J. Markova, M. Kalinsky & P. Marek

    Open problems in protection of live-giving infrastructures and supply chains
    D. Procházková

    8.4 Land transportation

    On the value of structural health monitoring
    M.H. Faber & S. Thöns

    Hazards, accidents and events—a land of confusing terms
    R. Winther & W. Marsh

    8.5 Manufacturing

    Applying ALARP in a fire safety analysis in an existing building
    A.H. Arnhus

    Determining critical factors to avoid failures in the building process
    G.W. Dijkshoorn, K.C. Terwel & F.W. Guldenmund

    8.6 Natural hazards

    FORM-ARS using finite elements for assessment of reliability of clay slopes
    M.G. Bverfjord

    Economic implications of multi-layer safety projects for flood protection
    V. Tsimopoulou, J.K. Vrijling, M. Kok, S.N. Jonkman & J.W. Stijnen

    9 Structural reliability

    9.1 Aeronautics aerospace

    Reliability simulation analysis and experimental validation of spaceborne scanning mechanism
    T. Liu, N. Zhang & L. Zhang

    Analysis of structural component’s lifetime distribution considered from the aspect of the wearing with the characteristic function applied
    J. Żurek, H. Tomaszek & M. Zieja

    9.2 Critical infrastructures

    Optimal production facility allocation for failure resilient critical infrastructures
    Y.-P. Fang, N. Pedroni & E. Zio

    Probabilistic assessment of traffic loads on bridges
    J. Markova, M. Holicky, M. Sykora & J. Kral

    A tail expectation approach for characteristic values
    A.E. Tamparopoulos & K. Bergmeister

    9.3 Energy

    Probabilistic fatigue model for reinforced concrete onshore wind turbine foundations
    S. Márquez-Domínguez & J.D. Sørensen

    9.4 Land transportation

    Comparison of the reliability levels provided by Eurocodes and standards of the Russian Federation
    M. Sykora, M. Holicky & V. Nadolski

    Probabilistic model for compressive strength of historic masonry
    M. Sykora, T. Cejka, M. Holicky & J. Witzany

    9.5 Manufacturing

    On the sampling frequency of random loadings for fatigue damage calculations
    H.W. Cheng, J.Y. Tao, X. Chen & X.L. Liu

    Methodology for the lifetime prediction of micro gears dependent on present shape deviations and the material structure
    G. Lanza, B. Haefner & J. Gibmeier

    Probabilistic reliability assessment of steel structures exposed to fatigue
    M. Krejsa

    9.6 Natural hazards

    Environmental design parameters for events with multiple components
    B.J. Leira

    The mixed lognormal distribution for a more precise assessment of the reliability of concrete slabs exposed to fire
    R. Van Coile, R. Caspeele & L. Taerwe

    9.7 Security

    Assessing the vulnerability of SMEs: A qualitative analysis
    S. Clusel, F. Guarnieri, C. Martin & D. Lagarde

    Structural reliability of concrete slabs considering tensile membrane action
    R. Caspeele, D. Gouverneur, R. Van Coile, W. Botte & L. Taerwe

    10 System reliability

    10.1 Aeronautics aerospace

    Cost optimization with focus on reliability and system safety
    C. Johansson, P. Persson, M. Derelöv & J. Ölvander

    Sensitivity analysis using optimal experimental designs for system reliability study of active systems
    Y. Li, J. Bös & H. Hanselka

    Automatic generation of temporal fault trees from AADL models
    N. Mahmud & Z. Mian

    10.2 Chemical and process industry

    Constant and time-varying failure rates based on field data in a context of Reliability, Availability, Maintainability (RAM) assessments
    T.V. Alvarenga & G.G.G. de Castro

    The significance of failure and repair data collection when performing reliability assessment—a practical approach
    C.S. Bleser, L.M. Chame & T.V. Alvarenga

    Operability is a key parameter to assess the performance of oil and gas developments
    V. Borges & C. Hickey

    Study on production availability for new subsea production systems based on a large-scale seabed storage tank
    I.-H. Choi, Y. Seo, D. Chang & K. Chang

    Utilizing supply chain modeling for decision support in the oil and gas industry
    S.L. Isaksen, T. Lilleheier & C. Wright

    Further comparisons of PFD results for different types of complex SIS with various assessment methods
    L.F. Oliveira, F. Brissaud, B. Declerck & S. Eisinger

    Investigating the power-law distribution of a chemical installations’ network
    G.L.L. Reniers & K. Sörensen

    10.3 Critical infrastructures

    Assessing software reliability of multistate systems
    M. Kristiansen, B. Natvig & R. Winther

    Resource redistribution as a mechanism of resilience: Effects of lack of information
    V. Lubashevskiy, T. Kanno & K. Furuta

    A simulation model for the reliability analysis of smart grid communication network
    P. Luo, G. Sansavini & E. Zio

    10.4 Energy

    Enhanced Fault Tree Analysis and modelling considerations of a Polymer Electrolyte Membrane Fuel Cell
    M. Whiteley, L. Bartlett & S. Dunnett

    Estimating common-cause failure parameters within power system reliability analysis
    Z.B. Rejc, M. Cepin & A. Sitdikova

    Tackling risk in energy-optimized sensor networks for safety critical applications
    H. Dahl-Olsen, A. Østdahl & A. Williamsen

    Two-level blackout probabilistic risk analysis: Application to a test system
    P. Henneaux, F. Faghihi, P.E. Labeau, J.C. Maun & L. Haarla

    Optimal load sharing in a binary multicomponent system where the components have constant or increasing failure rates
    A.B. Huseby & O.N. Breivik

    Reliable microgrid energy management under environmental uncertainty and mechanical failures: An agent-based modeling and robust optimization approach
    E. Kuznetsova, C. Ruiz, Y.F. Li & E. Zio

    Hybrid universal generating function for the reliability assessment of multi-state systems under aleatory and epistemic uncertainties
    Y.F. Li, Y. Ding & E. Zio

    Modelling and reliability analysis of energy networks
    V. Matuzas, R. Alzbutas & T. Iešmantas

    Optimal sizing and allocation of distributed generation for reliable energy distribution accounting for uncertainty
    R. Mena, Y. Li, E. Zio, M. Hennebel, C. Ruiz & E. Zio

    The application of RAMS to analysis life cycle cost on the operation of power generation
    H. Nugraha & N.I. Sinisuka

    Predictive control for reliable microgrid energy management under uncertainties
    I. Prodan & E. Zio

    10.5 Information technology and telecommunications

    The information support model for the transport system operation process
    K. Bojda

    Safety-related system-on-chip architecture for embedded computing applications
    A. Hayek, B. Machmur, M. Schreiber & J. Börcsök

    Cloud computing service reliability modeling with batch arrivals and retrial queues
    P. Diamantopoulos, V.P. Koutras & A.N. Platis

    Syntax and semantics of reliability enhanced activity diagrams
    M. Kowalski

    Overview of the reliability model for HDL in safety related systems
    B. Machmur, A. Hayek & J. Börcsök

    Deterministic and stochastic dependability analysis of industrial systems using Coloured Petri Nets approach
    B. Pinna, G. Babykina, N. Brînzei & J.-F. Pétin

    10.6 Land transportation

    Modeling a fault tolerant railway system
    C. Fecarotti, J.D. Andrews & R. Remenyte-Prescott

    Dependability assessment of large railway systems
    G. Buchheit, O. Malassé, N. Brinzei & N. Ammad

    RAM management for UTO metro line revamping under commercial operation
    J. Grangé, G. Donélian & P. Gaufreteau

    Epistemic parametric uncertainties in availability assessment of a Railway Signalling System using Monte Carlo simulation
    S. Qiu, M. Sallak, W. Schön & Z. Cherfi-Boulanger

    Train punctuality model for a selected part of railway transportation system
    F.J. Restel

    On the definition of functional reliability
    I.B. Shubinski & H. Schäbe

    Modification and application of an S-shaped reliability growth model
    V. Schweizer, J. Juskowiak, M. Bartholdt, P. Zeiler, B. Bertsche & F. Jakob

    10.7 Manufacturing

    Dynamical modelling and stochastic optimisation for the design of launcher integration processes
    C. Elegbede, D. Berard-Bergery, J. Béhar & T. Stauffer

    Dynamic reliability analysis of three nonlinear aging components with different failure modes characteristics
    G. Manno, A. Zymaris, N.M.P. Kakalis, F. Chiacchio, F.E. Cipollone, L. Compagno, D. D’Urso & N. Trapani

    A small-scale experiment on the Palmgren-Miner linear damage hypothesis
    U.K. Rakowsky

    Probabilistic model checking for reliability and safety analysis of a flexible manufacturing cell
    D. Zhang, Y. Zhang & M. Yu

    10.8 Maritime transportation

    Analysis of operational availability and blowout frequency for offshore drilling system
    Y.S. Lee, D.J. Chang, S.H. Han & M.C. Ryu

    Estimation of chain production availability for Korean ship-based CCS
    Y. Seo & D. Chang

    10.9 Natural hazards

    Storm power outage prediction modeling
    S.D. Guikema, R. Nateghi & S.M. Quiring

    10.10 Nuclear industry

    Modelling a feed-water control system of a steam generator in the framework of the dynamic reliability
    G. Babykina, N. Brînzei, J.-F. Aubry & G. Deleuze

    Probabilistic preferences composition for failure mode prioritization in FMEA
    P.A.A. Garcia, M.A. Oliveira, I.C. Leal Jr., G.S. Motta & P.F.F. Frutuoso e Melo

    Application of ageing PSA model for systems’ risk-informed classification
    Sh. Poghosyan, A. Amirjanyan, M. Nitoi & Z. Simic

    10.11 Security

    Method to determine uncertainty in system reliability estimate based on Bayesian networks
    F. Han, Y. Liu & J.G. Wang

    Safety management within Task Force Uruzgan: A report of working with Unmanned Aerial Vehicles
    M. Moorkamp, E.-H. Kramer, C. van Gulijk & B. Ale

    A shock and wear system under preventive and corrective repairs
    R. Pérez-Ocón & D. Montoro-Cazorla

    11 Uncertainty analysis

    11.1 Aeronautics aerospace

    Are interval probabilities a viable way for quantifying uncertainties?
    K. Breitung

    11.2 Chemical and process industry

    Polynomial Chaos Expansion for an efficient uncertainty and sensitivity analysis of complex numerical models
    E. Baştuğ, A. Menafoglio & T. Okhulkova

    A study of the treatment of uncertainty in the Quantitative Fire Risk Assessment of offshore installations
    B. Chu & D. Chang

    Monte Carlo analysis and fuzzy sets for uncertainty propagation in SIS performance assessment
    F. Innal & Y. Dutuit

    11.3 Critical infrastructures

    Resilience analysis for engineered and infrastructure systems under deep uncertainty or emergent conditions
    R.A. Francis & B. Bekera

    11.4 Energy

    Uncertainty modeling in wind power generation prediction by neural networks and bootstrapping
    R. Ak, V. Vitelli & E. Zio

    On black swans in relation to some common uncertainty classification systems
    T. Bjerga & R. Flage

    Uncertainty analysis of a model of an energy distribution system with solar panel generation by time-varying data analysis, Monte Carlo Simulation and Fuzzy Interval Analysis
    E. Ferrario & A. Pini

    An efficient adaptive model for wind speed forecasting
    R.-D. Albu, I. Felea, F. Popenţiu-Vlădicescu & I.M. Naghiu

    11.5 Information technology and telecommunications

    On the distinction between aleatory and epistemic uncertainty and its implications on reliability and risk analysis
    F. Aguirre, M. Sallak, W. Schön & S. Qiu

    On the best learning algorithm for web services response time prediction
    H. Madsen, R.-D. Albu & F. Popenţiu-Vlădicescu

    11.6 Land transportation

    Automotive door closing effort uncertainty analysis based on Monte Carlo simulation method
    F.D. Pereira & G.F.M. de Souza

    11.7 Maritime transportation

    A model for evaluating the security level of a port
    R. Riahi, I. Robertson, I. Jenkinson, S. Bonsall & J. Wang

    11.8 Natural hazards

    A common rationale for global sensitivity analysis
    E. Borgonovo, G.B. Hazen & E. Plischke

    Response of rescue system to an extraordinary event
    K. Chmelikova & V. Adamec

    Comparison of seismic hazard values calculated according to selected standards
    K. Demjancukova & D. Prochazkova

    Line sampling and Fuzzy Interval Analysis for the propagation of aleatory and epistemic uncertainties in risk models
    E. Ferrario, N. Pedroni, E. Zio & E. Zio

    Assessment of criteria important to the choice of flood protection measures in the area
    P. Jezkova & M. Senovsky

    Prediction of surface meteorological variables in the southwestern tropical Atlantic by support vector machines
    I.D. Lins, D. Veleda, M. Araújo, M.A. Silva, M.C. Moura & E.L. Droguett

    Bayesian update of the parameters of probability distributions for risk assessment in a two-level hybrid probabilistic-possibilistic uncertainty framework
    N. Pedroni, E. Zio, A. Pasanisi & M. Couplet

    Adaptive design as an answer to climate uncertainty
    H.G. Voortman & H. van der Kolk

    11.9 Nuclear industry

    Global sensitivity analysis from given data: An application to a model for radionuclide migration in a randomly heterogeneous aquifer
    E. Borgonovo, F. Cadini & E. Zio

    Bayesian probabilistic analysis of a nuclear power plant small loss of coolant event tree model with possibilistic parameters
    C.-K. Lo, N. Pedroni & E. Zio

    Overall treatment of uncertainties in the context of risk-informed decision-making on Completion Time changes
    S. Martorell, M. Villamizar, I. Martón, S. Carlos & A.I. Sánchez

    What about totals? Alternative approaches to factor fixing
    E. Plischke & E. Borgonovo

    An uncertainty importance measure for Thermal-Hydraulics calculations
    M. Pourgol-Mohammad & S.M. Hosseini

    A preliminary hazard analysis improving the analytical hierarchy process consistency in decision making process for site selection
    V.B. Martins, A.L. Sousa & P.L.C. Saldanha

    Operational events groups ranking sensitivity analysis
    Z. Šimić

    Uncertainty distributions and probabilistic safety analysis
    A. Volkanovski, D. Kančev & B. Gjorgiev

    11.10 Security

    Risk management recommendations—an alternative to the 22 July report
    Ø. Amundrud, H. Veland & T. Aven

    Author index


    R.D.J.M. Steenbergen, P.H.A.J.M. van Gelder, S. Miraglia, A.C.W.M. Vrouwenvelder