Scenario Planning for Climate Change : A Guide for Strategists book cover
1st Edition

Scenario Planning for Climate Change
A Guide for Strategists

ISBN 9781138498402
Published June 13, 2019 by Routledge
166 Pages

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Book Description

Winner of the 2020 Book Award for the Organizations and the Natural Environment (ONE) Division of the Academy of Management.

Climate change, and the resultant impact on resource management and societal wellbeing, is one of the greatest challenges facing businesses and their long-term performance. Uncertainty about access to resources, unanticipated weather events, rapidly changing market conditions and potential social unrest is felt across all business and industry sectors. This book sets out an engaging step-by-step scenario-planning method that executives, Board members, managers and consultants can follow to develop a long-term strategy for climate change tailored for their business.

Most climate change strategy books discuss climate mitigation only, focusing on how companies engage with carbon policy, new technologies, markets and other stakeholders about reducing carbon emissions. This book explores these themes but also looks at strategizing for climate change adaptation. Adaptation is equally important, especially given that companies cannot negotiate with nature. There is a need to interpret climate science for business in a way that acknowledges the realities of climate change and identifies a way forwards in responding to this uncertain future.

Table of Contents

Chapter 1: An Introduction to Climate Change and Scenario Planning

Chapter 2: Scenario Planning Method Step 1: Set the Agenda, Focal Question and Time Horizon, and Identify Key Stakeholders

Chapter 3: Scenario Planning Method Step 2: Identify, Rate and Rank the Driving Forces

Chapter 4: Scenario Planning Method Step 3: Develop the Scenarios

Chapter 5: Scenario Planning Method Step 4: Identify Warning Signals and Develop a Climate Change Strategy

Chapter 6: Wrapping Up Your Scenario Planning Achievements

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Nardia Haigh is a business strategist for sustainability issues. Her research focuses on strategies and business models that address issues like climate change, the management of environmental commons, and pressing social issues. Nardia has researched these issues and consulted with companies about them, and her work appears in outlets including the California Management Review, Journal of Business Ethics, European Management Journal, Organization & Environment, and Business Strategy and the Environment. Dr Haigh has been cited in media outlets such as the Guardian, Ideas for Leaders, and Management INK. Nardia completed her Ph.D. in business management focusing on business strategies in response to climate change at the University of Queensland Business School, in Brisbane, Australia, and is as a tenured Associate Professor of Management at the University of Massachusetts Boston.


"A useful step by step guide for all those who wish to manage climate change in their organization.  Brings the daunting macro challenge down to helpful concrete steps."

Christiana Figueres, Former Executive Secretary of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change, and Founding Partner of

"Climate change is the ultimate systems thinking challenge. We should be thinking about how climate change is going to affect our communities, businesses, operations and missions.  It’s high time we had a "how to" guide for putting a strategic thinking hat on and tackling the unprecedented transformation we must undertake to ensure health, security and economic vitality in a changing world."

Daniel Kreeger, Executive Director, Association of Climate Change Officer


"The need for scenario planning has never been greater. The January 2019 PG&E bankruptcy was described by The Wall Street Journal as "the first major corporate casualty of climate change." The same week, David Crane, former utility CEO, said that within two decades Amazon or Google will dominate electricity provision in the U.S. Haigh provides a valuable resource for climate strategists."

Gib Hedstrom, Author, "Sustainability: What It Is and How to Measure It"


"Climate related risks and transitions involve large uncertainties and long timeframes that are not often addressed with conventional strategic planning.  The book offers a comprehensive, step-by-step process with helpful lists and tables to plan for an uncertain future.  Leading an organization through the scenario planning process will not only result in a sound plan, but will increase management’s understanding of the best ways to respond to potential impacts of climate change."  

David Clark, Vice President, Sustainability, Amcor