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Societal Complexity: System Effects and the Problem of Prediction book cover

1st Edition

Societal Complexity System Effects and the Problem of Prediction

Edited By Jeffrey Friedman Copyright 2014
144 Pages
by Routledge

144 Pages
by Routledge

The complexity of the modern world makes it difficult to predict the effects of political actions. In his 1992 book, System Effects , Robert Jervis underscored this difficulty by pointing to various sources of complexity when people interact. For example, they may misperceive each other’s perceptions, leading their actions to backfire or create unintended side effects. In this collection,... Read more

1. Introduction: System Effects and the Problem of Prediction Jeffrey Friedman  2. The Complexity of System Effects Andrea Jones-Rooy and Scott E. Page  3. We Can Never Study Merely One Thing: Reflections on Systems Thinking and IR Nuno P. Monteiro  4. Jervis on Complexity Theory Richard A. Posner  5. Should ‘‘Systems Thinkers’’ Accept the Limits on Political Forecasting or Push the Limits? Philip E. Tetlock, Michael C. Horowitz and Richard Herrmann  6. Conclusion: System Effects Revisited Robert Jervis

Biography

Jeffrey Friedman is a visiting scholar in the Department of Government, University of Texas at Austin, USA, received an MA in History from the University of California, Berkeley, USA, and a Ph.D. in Political Science from Yale University, USA. He is the founder and editor of Critical Review: A Journal of Politics and Society.

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