1st Edition
The 2007 Iran Nuclear Estimate Revisited Anatomy of a Controversy
Preface
Robert Jervis
Introduction: How could getting it right go so wrong? The 2007 Iran NIE revisited
James J. Wirtz
PART I
1. National Intelligence Estimate. Iran: nuclear intentions and capabilities – Key judgments
2. CIA support to policymakers: the 2007 National Intelligence Estimate on Iran’s nuclear intentions and capabilities
Gregory F. Treverton
3. Reevaluating the ‘externals’ and ‘internals’ of the 2007 Iran nuclear NIE
Vann H. Van Diepen
PART II
4. Reflections on the 2007 Iran NIE controversy
John E. McLaughlin
5. 2007 Iran nuclear NIE: more of the story
Thomas Fingar
6. Tradecraft, the PIAB, and the 2007 NIE on Iran’s Nuclear Intentions and Capabilities
Richard H. Immerman
7. The November 2007 Iran nuclear NIE: immediate aftermath
Robert Jervis
PART III
8. Reflections on conveying uncertainty
Gregory F. Treverton
9. The Iran nuclear archive: impressions and implications
Aaron Arnold, Matthew Bunn, Caitlin Chase, Steven E. Miller, Rolf Mowatt-Larssen and William H. Tobey
PART IV
10. Shifting currents: changes in National Intelligence Estimates on the Iran nuclear threat
Sarah E. Kreps
11. U.S.–Iran confrontation in the post-NIE world: an analysis of alternative policy options
Masoud Kazemzadeh
12. Weapons of mass destruction: the issue of ‘actionable’ intelligence
James J. Wirtz
Epilogue: The rise of counter-proliferation intelligence
James J. Wirtz and Robert Jervis
Biography
Robert Jervis is Adlai E. Stevenson Professor of International Politics at Columbia University, USA. He is the author of many books, including Why Intelligence Fails: Lessons from the Iranian Revolution and the Iraq War (2010). He received his Ph.D. from University of California, Berkeley, USA.
James J. Wirtz is Professor of National Security Affairs at the Naval Postgraduate School, Monterey, California, USA. He recently completed co-editing the 7th edition of Strategy in the Contemporary World (2022). He received his Ph.D. from Columbia University, USA.
