The nature of the economic cycle has been a long-standing problem for economists, given much attention by especially Malthus, Marx and Keynes. Key questions include: What are the causes of the economic cycle? Are the causes endogenous or exogenous? and Why is the economic cycle irregular? Economists’ views on these matters have differed, some concluding that governments can intervene effectively to stimulate economic growth, while others argue that government intervention is ineffective and even harmful. This book explores the theory of the economic cycle in relation to economic growth in China, and especially in relation to income distribution and the demand for consumer durables. The book concludes that the cause of the economic cycle is endogenous, that the periodic fluctuation of economic growth and its dynamic equilibrium are natural aspects of the growth of the economy, and it puts forward a new model of the economic cycle which confidently predicts the future trajectory of China’s economic growth.
Table of Contents
1. Traditional Economic Cycle Theories and Their Limitations
2. Normal Estimation of China’s Urban and Rural Households Income Distribution
3. The Normality of Household Income Distribution and Endogenous Mechanism of Economic Cycle
4. In Global Perspective: the Normal Distribution of Household Income and the Endogenous Mechanism of cycle of Demand for Consumer Goods
5. Categories of Economic cycles and Analysis of the Factors Affecting Their Periods
6. Factors Affecting the Amplitude of Economic Cycle
7. The Dynamic Equilibrium Growth Process of Economic cycle
8. The Cycle of Demand for Consumer Durables and Its Influence on Economic Cycle in China
9. The Influence of Household Income Distribution on Urban Household Passenger Vehicles and Economic cycle in China
10. The Charectaristics of and Factors Affecting the Evolution of China’s Economic Cycle and Its Dynamic Equilibrium
11. The Development Trend of China’s Economic Cycle in Next Decade
12. The Theoretical Foundation and Framework of the Cyclical Model on China's Economic Growth
Li Jianwei is a Senior Research Fellow at the Development Research Center of The State Council of the People’s Republic of China.