Embracing the theory and practice of strategic foresight and illuminating how different schools of thought regard its role in policy making, Tuomo Kuosa describes how something not traditionally considered an independent discipline, is steadily becoming one. In The Evolution of Strategic Foresight he explains how the practice of strategic foresight has long been closely associated with the military and politics. Linking strategic thinking more broadly to futurology, however, it is quite new. Since strategic foresight refers to the practice of generating analyses of alternative futures and strategies, based on available intelligence and foreknowledge, the practice can and should be applied to companies, business sectors, national and trans-national agencies of all descriptions, and to all aspects of public policy making. The author explains its practice in terms of structure, process, and knowledge domains, and examines its methodologies and systems, along with how strategic foresight can be used to produce better knowledge and be more effectively linked to policy making. Using examples from 30 different countries and with access to interviews and workshops involving key experts, The Evolution of Strategic Foresight will be valuable to scholars, educators, students engaged in strategy and future studies, long-range, public policy and urban planners, analysts; risk assessment experts, and consultants, managers and decision makers in many organisations, public and private.
'Drawing on the wisdom of the past, The Evolution of Strategic Foresight by Tuomo Kuosa guides the reader through strategic thought to the present and guides to the future'. Jerome C. Glenn, CEO, The Millennium Project 'According to my professional experience Dr Tuomo Kuosa is one of leading experts in the foresight field. His new book will be a key reference in the field of strategic foresight. His new book is really a value adding product with high intellectual capital input. It is also insightful, innovative and professional.' Jari Kaivo-oja Adviser in Foresight R&D, Crisis Management Initiative, New York & Helsinki Offices, Expert and researcher, Finland Futures Research Centre and the Academy of Finland, University of Turku 'A superior guide to futures methodologies, their history and contemporary use, especially in European public sectors.' Dr John P. Geis, Professor; Colonel, retired; Author of the Air Force 2025 and Blue Horizons Studies ’This book by Tuomo Kuosa sheds new light in the growing field of strategic foresight. Through theoretical considerations and practical examples, he emphasizes the usefulness of strategic foresight, with applications from the military to business to academia. The book is well presented and serves as an excellent reference for futures studies in a professional environment.’ José Cordeiro, Director, Venezuela Node, The Millennium Project and Energy Advisor/Faculty, Singularity University, NASA Ames, California, USA
Contents: Preface; Part I Knowledge: Introduction; Foresight concepts; Strategic concepts; Evolutionary concepts; Inferring in theory; Inferring in foresight. Part II Structure: Principles of strategic foresight in public policy making; Strategic foresight in European Union's older member states' public policy making; Strategic foresight in the European Union's ten new member states' public policy making; Strategic foresight in the public policy making of other countries and transnational organizations. Part III Process: How could the strategic foresight process better facilitate national decision? - views of policy makers and high government officials; How could the strategic foresight process better facilitate national decision making? - views of strategic foresight knowledge producers; How could we improve our public strategic foresight systems? - views of strategic foresight knowledge producers; How could we improve our public strategic foresight systems? - views of policy makers and high government officials. Part IV Discussion: Trilogy of systems thinking, foresight and strategic management; Adjusting foresight, intelligence and inferring for different types of systems; Bibliography; Index.