Originally published in 1986. This helpful text sets out what appears to make exchange rates change and shows how these various factors contribute to an explanation of the past. It considers the problems of providing satisfactory forecasts of the exchange rate while presenting the methods used, outlining their drawbacks and speculating on future ways forward. Laid out to move from empirical issues to theory and on to policy, this book is easily of use to those interested in macroeconomics, applied economics and international economics as well as economic history.
Table of Contents
Foreword 1. Introduction Part 1: Exchange Rate Determination: Theory and Evidence 2. The Spot Market, the Forward Market and the Capital Account 3. Theories of the Determination of the Forward Rate and Spot Capital Flows 4. International Monetary Models 5. Asset Markets, the Efficient Markets Hypothesis and ‘News’ Part 2: Alternative Exchange Rate Regimes 6. The Evolution of the Exchange Rate System Since the Second World War 7. The European Monetary System 8. Other Exchange Rate Regimes Part 3: The Exchange Rate and Economic Policy 9. The Exchange Rate and the Real Economy 10. Exchange Rate Policy and the Rate of Inflation 11. The Interactions of Exchange Rate Policy with other Policies 12. The Impact of Natural Resource Discovery on Exchange Rates: The Case of North Sea Oil Part 4: Forecasting 13. Forecasting the Exchange Rate – A Sceptical View