The Future of Intelligence
Challenges in the 21st century
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This volume discusses the challenges the future holds for different aspects of the intelligence process and for organisations working in the field.
The main focus of Western intelligence services is no longer on the intentions and capabilities of the Soviet Union and its allies. Instead, at present, there is a plethora of threats and problems that deserve attention. Some of these problems are short-term and potentially acute, such as terrorism. Others, such as the exhaustion of natural resources, are longer-term and by nature often more difficult to foresee in their implications.
This book analyses the different activities that make up the intelligence process, or the ‘intelligence cycle’, with a focus on changes brought about by external developments in the international arena, such as technology and security threats. Drawing together a range of key thinkers in the field, The Future of Intelligence examines possible scenarios for future developments, including estimations about their plausibility, and the possible consequences for the functioning of intelligence and security services.
This book will be of much interest to students of intelligence studies, strategic studies, foreign policy, security studies and IR in general.
Table of Contents
Foreword and acknowledgements, Michael Kowalski 1. By Way of Introduction: A Systemic Way of Looking at the Future of Intelligence, Bob de Graaff 2. The Future of Intelligence: What Are the Threats, the Challenges and the Opportunities?, Sir David Omand 3. The Future of Intelligence: Changing Threats, Evolving Methods, Gregory F. Treverton 4. Is the US Intelligence Community Anti-Intellectual?, Mark M. Lowenthal 5. The Future of the Intelligence Process: The End of the Intelligence Cycle?, Art Hulnick 6. The Future of Counterintelligence: the Twenty-First Century Challenge, Jennifer Sims 7. Analyzing International Intelligence Cooperation: Institutions or Intelligence Assemblages?, Jelle van Buuren 8. European Intelligence Cooperation, Björn Fägersten 9. Intelligence-Led Policing in Europe: Lingering between Idea and Implementation, Monica den Boer 10. The Next Hundred Years: Reflections on the Future of Intelligence, Wilhelm Agrell 11. Conclusions: It may be September 10, 2001 today George Dimitriu and Isabelle Duyvesteyn
Isabelle Duyvesteyn is associate professor at the Department of History of International Relations, Utrecht University in the Netherlands, and author/editor of several books, including the Handbook of Insurgency and Counterinsurgency (Routledge 2012).
Ben de Jong is retired lecturer in the Department of East European History at the University of Amsterdam, the Netherlands.
Joop van Reijn is former Chairman of the Netherlands Intelligence Studies Association (NISA), and a subject matter expert at The Hague Centre for Strategic Studies (HCSS) and a consultant for the Geneva Centre for Democratic Control of the Armed Forces.