Preface ix
PART I.{emsp}CYCLES AND TRENDS
I. Cyclical Fluctuations 3
Four Cycles 3
The Inventory Cycle 8
The Fixed Investment Cycle 11
The Kuznets Cycle 15
The Kondratieff Cycle 18
II. Growth as an S-Shaped Phenomenon 20
Representations of Growth 20
Growth as an S-Shaped Curve 21
Industry Growth Patterns 26
Asymptotic Growth Curves 32
Appendix A: Measuring the Rate of Economic Growth 37
Appendix B: Estimating the Parameters of Asymptotic Growth Curves 42
III. Secular Trends 45
Rostow’s Stages of Economic Growth 45
Economic Growth in the Very Long Run 54
PART II.{emsp}LONG WAVE THEORIES
IV. The Discovery of the Long Wave 59
First Sketches of a Long Wave 59
Two Dutchmen 61
Kondratieff 63
A Brief Survey of Pre-war Literature 68
Appendix C: Kondratieff’s Writings 71
V. The Kondratieff as a Price Cycle 73
Fluctuations in Prices 73
Rostow’s Model of the Kondratieff Cycle 83
VI. Innovation Theories 93
Innovation 93
Schumpter’s Theory of Economic Development 97
Mensch’s Theory 10
VII. Fluctuations in Infrastructural Investment 112
Infrastructural Investment as a Cause of Long Waves 112
A Simple Long Wave Model 125
VIII. Innovation, Innovation Life Cycles, and Infrastructural Investment 129
PART III.{emsp}EMPIRICAL EVIDENCE
IX. Long Waves in Production 147
Fluctuations in Industrial Production 147
Fluctuations in Capital Formation 158
A Long Wave Chronology 162
Appendix D: Testing the Long wave Hypothesis after Trend Elimination with a Log-Linear Trend 165
Appendix E: Testing the Long Wave Hypothesis by Means of Spectral Analysis 169
X. Fluctuations in Innovations 173
A Survey of Basic Innovations 173
Fluctuations in Innovations Over Time 180
Innovations by Sector 185
PART IV.{emsp}THE FOURTH KONDRATIEFF DOWNSWING
XI. The Stagnation of the 1970s 195
What Caused the 1973-Downturn? 195
The Current Depression and the Previous One 203
The Slow Response of Some Economic Agents to Stagnation 205
Appendix F: The Current and the Previous Depression: A Comparison of the United States and the United Kingdom 209
XII. Economic Policy During a Depression 211
What Will Happen During a Depression Phase 211
The Extra Complication: Rigidity 214
The Need to Offer a ‘New Deal’ 218
Bibliography 227
Index 235
Biography
J.J. Van Duijn
