The Politics and Science of Prevision: Governing and Probing the Future, 1st Edition (Hardback) book cover

The Politics and Science of Prevision

Governing and Probing the Future, 1st Edition

Edited by Andreas Wenger, Ursula Jasper, Myriam Dunn Cavelty

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272 pages | 7 B/W Illus.

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Hardback: 9780367900748
pub: 2020-07-14
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Description

This book inquires into the use of prediction at the intersection of politics and academia, and reflects upon the implications of future-oriented policymaking across different fields.

The volume focuses on the key intricacies and fallacies of prevision in a time of complexity, uncertainty and unpredictability. The first part of the book discusses different academic perspectives and contributions to future-oriented policymaking. The second part discusses the role of future knowledge in decision-making across different empirical issues such as climate, health, finance, bio- and nuclear weapons, civil war, and crime. It analyses how prediction is integrated into public policy and governance, and how in return governance structures influence the making of knowledge about the future. Contributors integrate two analytical dimensions in their chapters– the epistemology of prevision and the political and ethical implications of prevision. In this way, the volume contributes to a better understanding of the complex interaction and feedback loops between the processes of creating knowledge about the future and the application of this future knowledge in public policy and governance.

This book will be of much interest to students of security studies, political science, sociology, technology studies and IR.

Table of Contents

Part I: Introduction

1. Governing and Probing the Future: The Politics and Science of Prevision Andreas Wenger, Ursula Jasper, Myriam Dunn Cavelty

Part II: Academic Perspectives on Future-Oriented Policy-Making

2. Imagined Worlds: The Politics of Future-Making in the 21st Century Sheila Jasanoff

3. How to Know the Future – and the Past (and How Not): A Pragmatist Perspective on Foresight and Hindsight Gunther Hellmann

4. Future Thinking and Cognitive Distortions: Key Questions that Guide Forecasting Processes Michael C. Horowitz

5. Thinking Historically: A Guide for Policy Francis J. Gavin

6. From Predicting to Forecasting: Uncertainties, Scenarios and their (Un-)Intended Side Effects Myriam Dunn Cavelty

Part III: Empirical Perspectives across Policy Fields

7. Uncertainty and Precariousness at the Policy-Science Interface: Three Cases of Climate-Driven Adaptation Maria Carmen Lemos, Nicole Klenk

8. The Anticipative Medicalization of Life: Governing Future Risk and Uncertainty in (Global) Health Ursula Jasper

9. Crisis, What Crisis? Uncertainty, Risk, and Financial Markets Peter J. Katzenstein, Stephen C. Nelson

10. Imagining Future Biothreats: The Role of Popular Culture Filippa Lentzos, Jean-Baptiste Gouyon, Brian Balmer

11. Forecasting Civil War and Political Violence Corinne Bara

12. Predicting Nuclear Weapons Proliferation Jonas Schneider

13. ‘We Do that Once per Day’: Cyclical Futures and Institutional Ponderousness in Predictive Policing Matthias Leese

Part IV: Conclusion

14. The Politics and Science of the Future: Assembling Future Knowledge and Integrating It into Public Policy and Governance Andreas Wenger, Myriam Dunn Cavelty, Ursula Jasper

About the Editors

Andreas Wenger is Professor of International and Swiss Security Policy and Director of the Center for Security Studies (CSS) at ETH Zurich, Switzerland.

Ursula Jasper is the Policy Officer at Fondation Botna in Switzerland. Prior to this she worked for many years as a Senior Researcher at the Center for Security Studies at ETH Zurich, Switzerland.

Myriam Dunn Cavelty is Deputy Head of Research and Teaching at the Center for Security Studies (CSS), ETH Zurich, Switzerland.

About the Series

CSS Studies in Security and International Relations

The CSS Studies in Security and International Relations examines historical and contemporary aspects of security and conflict. The series provides a forum for new research based upon an expanded conception of security and will include monographs by the Center's research staff and associated academic partners.

Learn more…

Subject Categories

BISAC Subject Codes/Headings:
HIS027000
HISTORY / Military / General
POL000000
POLITICAL SCIENCE / General
POL011000
POLITICAL SCIENCE / International Relations / General
POL012000
POLITICAL SCIENCE / Political Freedom & Security / International Security
POL017000
POLITICAL SCIENCE / Public Affairs & Administration
POL035000
POLITICAL SCIENCE / Political Freedom & Security / General