The Routledge Handbook of Economic Expectations in Historical Perspective

List of Figures

List of Tables

List of Contributors

01. Introduction

Laetitia Lenel, Jochen Streb, Alexander Nützenadel, and Ingo Köhler

PART I Approaches and Debates

02. The Rise of the Rational Expectations Hypothesis

Pedro Garcia Duarte

03. A Short History in Defense of Adaptive Learning

Stefano Eusepi and Bruce Preston

04. Bounded Rationality, Beliefs, and Behavior

Sebastian Schweighofer-Kodritsch

05. Narratives, Representations, and Expectations

David Tuckett

06. Heterogeneous Expectations among Professional Forecasters

Christian Conrad and Kajal Lahiri

07. Subjective Inflation Expectations of Households: How they are Formed and their Role in Economic Choices

Francesco D’Acunto and Michael Weber

08. Contingent Expectations

Alexander Nützenadel and Jochen Streb

09. From Data to Expectations in Macroeconomics

Ulrich Fritsche and Jörg Döpke

10. On FIRE, News, and Expectations

Benjamin Born, Zeno Enders, and Gernot J. Müller

11. Economic Expectations and an AI Agent

Ekaterina Svetlova 

PART II Practices and Determinants of Expectation Management and Coordination

12. Central Bank Communication with the General Public

Lena Dräger

13. Narratives and the Media

Henrik Müller

14. Civil Jurisdiction and Regulation

Louis Pahlow

15. Beyond Expectations: Consultants as the Modern- Day Oracle

Matthias Kipping and Sebastian Schöttler

16. Economic Forecasting

Laetitia Lenel and Werner Reichmann

17. Market Research as a Strategy of Corporate Expectation Management

Ingo Köhler and Jan Logemann

18. Public Numbers: The Politics of Quantification and Relational Expectations

Tiago Mata 

PART III Expectation Formation Across Time and Space

19. Cultures of Uncertainty and Economic Expectations

Eelke de Jong

20. Expectation Formation in Pre-Modern Europe

Angela Huang and Mark Spoerer

21. Uncertainty and Innovation: New Perspectives from Nineteenth-Century Patenting Behavior

Laura Magazzini, Alessandro Nuvolari, and Michelangelo Vasta

22. Expectations in the History of Consumption, c.1500 to the Present

Frank Trentmann

23. Saving Behavior in the Nineteenth and Twentieth Centuries

Jan-Otmar Hesse, Sebastian Knake, and Sibylle Lehmann-Hasemeyer

24. Demographic Decision-Making Under Uncertainty

Timothy Guinnane and Jochen Streb

25. Entrepreneurial Expectations in Colonial and Postcolonial Contexts

Marie Huber, Nina Kleinöder, and Jonathan Krautter

26. African Entrepreneurs and the Economic Expectation Question: A Transhistorical Survey

Moses E. Ochonu 

PART IV Expectation Formation in Times of Crisis

27. An Unexpected Crisis of Expectations

Mary O’Sullivan 

28. Expectation Formation in (Potential) Sovereign Debt Crises

Laura Rischbieter

29. Monetary Shocks: Business Expectations at the Beginning and End of Two Gold-Based Currency Regimes

Jan-Otmar Hesse and Sebastian Teupe

30. Sovereign Expectations: Theory and History in the Financial Shocks and Crises of the 1970s and 1980s

Sebastian Alvarez and Catherine Schenk

31. Government-Made House Price Bubbles? Austerity, Homeownership, Rental and Credit Liberalization Policies, and “Irrational Exuberance” on Housing Markets

Konstantin A. Kholodilin, Sebastian Kohl, and Florian Müller

32. The Politics of Expectations in Local Government. (De-)Financialization Processes in the US and Germany

Florian Fastenrath, Christine Trampusch, and Agnes Janssen

33. Expectation Formation in the Coronavirus Pandemic

Jonas Dovern and Fabian Krüger

Index

Biography

Laetitia Lenel is Professor of Economic History of the Economic at the University of Duisburg-Essen. Her research brings together the study of economic knowledge practices and economic history. She investigates the history of business forecasting and how societies have grappled with economic turbulence, among other topics.

Alexander Nützenadel is Professor of Economic and Social History at Humboldt-Universität zu Berlin. He has published books and articles on the history of economic expectations, banking history, and economic populism.

Jochen Streb is Professor of Economic History at the University of Mannheim. His research focuses on historical patent activities in Germany since 1877. He is also an expert on the economic history of the Third Reich and the emergence of social security systems.

Ingo Köhler is the Director of the Hessian Economic Archives in Darmstadt, Germany, and an Adjunct Professor of Economic and Social History at the University of Göttingen. His research focuses on business history, marketing history, and corporate resilience studies.