The Routledge Handbook of Political Risk

1 Situating the Routledge Handbook of Political Risk
Julian Campisi, Johannes Leitner, Hannes Meissner, and Cecilia Emma Sottilotta

PART I
Theoretical and Historical Perspectives on Political Risk Analysis
2 Re-Evaluating the Theoretical Foundations of Political Risk Analysis: The Crucial Role of Context
Julian Campisi, Hannes Meissner, and Cecilia Emma Sottilotta

3 "Globalisation in the First Person": Political Risk and the Study of International Relations
Nigel Gould-Davies

4 Political Risk and Security Studies: Towards a Conceptual Framework of Political Riskiness
Rita Floyd

5 Close Encounters, Awaited Appointments: Futures Studies Meet Political Risk Analysis
Adriano Cozzolino and Roberto Paura

6 A History of Political Risk: Tracking the Development of Institutions and Policies to Mitigate Political Risk (17th–21st Century)
Federico Niglia

PART II
Methodologies and Approaches in the Analysis of Political Risk
7 "Cats vs. Analysts": Can Political Risk Analysis Be Rigorous?
Carlo Gallo

8 Political Risk Analysis as Intelligence for Contextualised and Actionable Insight
Robert McKellar

9 Conducting Political Risk Research in a Hybrid Regime: The Case of Zimbabwe
Itai Makone


PART III
Political Risk as a Result of Disruptive Global Trends
10 Understanding the Nexus of Climate Change and Political Risk
Jesse Scott

11 Artificial Intelligence and Political Risk Analysis
Manfredi Valeriani and Carolina Polito

12 Political Risk and the Geopolitics of Cybersecurity
Milena Rodban

13 Missing the Risks: Ideology, Technology, and the Shift to US-China Conflict, 2016–2024
Scott L. Malcomson

14 Localising Political Risk: A Framework for Analysing Political Risk Associated with City Diplomacy
Lorenzo Kihlgren Grandi

PART IV
Geopolitics and Political Risk Constellations: Spaces and Places
15 Political Risk in Japan: Looking under the Bonnet
Robert Ward

16 Political Risks in the Post-Soviet Region: Geopolitical Risks, Country Risks, and Business Management Strategies
Hannes Meissner

17 A Political Risk Analysis of Kazakhstan: Recent Changes in the Internal and External Context of a Central Asian State
Florence Ertel and Julian Plottka

18 Exploring Future Energy Security in the Black Sea-Caspian Region
Strategic Interests, Political Risks, and Emerging Challenges
Elkhan Nuriyev

19 Informality and State Capture as Political Risk: Firm Level Evidence from Ukraine under Yanukovych
Hannes Meissner and Johannes Leitner

20 How Does European Strategic Autonomy Reduce Political Risk for EU Businesses?
Maxime Lefebvre

21 Doing Business in the EU’s Electoral Autocracy: Analysing Political Risks in Hungary
Andrea Fumarola

22 Between Hope and Despair: Political Risks and Opportunities for European Business in Iran, 2015–2019
Heinrich Matthee

23 Assessing the "Systemic" Risks around ESG Investment in Latin America
Irene Mia and Juan Pablo Medina Bickel

24 Political Risk in South America: Insights for European Investors in the Renewable Energy and Mining Sectors
Carlos Cruz Infante

25 Sink, Swim, or Be the Captain: Emerging Political Risks and their Impact on Southern Africa
Derica Lambrechts

PART V
New Trends in Political Risk Management: Industries, Companies, Strategies 387
26 From Niche Market to Core Function: Mapping the Political Risk Analysis Industry
Federico Merke and Cecilia Emma Sottilotta

27 Political Risk Insurance: Where Does It Fit?
Julian Campisi

28 "Ethical" Political Risk: Impacts and Strategies
Cecilia Emma Sottilotta

29 Political Risk Assessment in the Context of Great Power Conflict: The Case of the Hong Kong Stock Exchange
Alastair Campbell

30 Political Tailwind for Chinese Contractors on EU-Funded Construction Projects: Insights from the Pelješac Bridge Project
Herbert Krutina

31 Investment Arbitration, Political Risk, and the European Union
Alice Meissner
32 Geopolitics and Climate Change: How Can MNEs Prepare?
Merlin Linehan

33 Managing Geopolitical Risks: Underlying Trends, Firm-Level Responses, and Strategic Options
Johannes Leitner

Biography

Cecilia Emma Sottilotta is Assistant Professor of Political Science at the Department of International Human and Social Sciences of the University for Foreigners of Perugia (Unistrapg) and, since 2021, Visiting Professor at the College of Europe, Bruges, where she teaches Political Risk Analysis in a European Perspective. She completed her PhD in Political Theory at LUISS University in 2013. Between 2016 and 2019, she was involved in the research project "The Choice for Europe since Maastricht: Member States’ preferences for economic and fiscal integration" (EMU Choices) funded by the European Union’s Horizon 2020 research and innovation program, as coordinator of the Southern Europe research team covering Italy, Spain, Portugal, Greece, Malta and Cyprus. From 2017 to 2022 she served as Assistant Professor of International Relations and Global Politics at the American University of Rome. She has been Visiting Research Fellow at the University of Salzburg, Austria (2016), Visiting Professor at the Universidad del Norte in Barranquilla, Colombia (2017 and 2023), DAAD Visiting Research Fellow at the German Institute of Global and Area Studies – GIGA Hamburg (2019), Visiting Researcher at the Jacques Delors Centre of the Hertie School, Berlin (2021), Visiting Researcher at the Centrum für Europäische Politik, Berlin (2024).

Julian Campisi is Assistant Professor of Political Science at the University of Toronto –Scarborough. He completed his PhD in Political Science at York University in 2019. His research interests are predominantly in the field of international political economy and comparative politics, specifically the methodologies that underpin political risk assessments in the private and public realms, with specific interest in the Italian case. Julian was a 2022 Associate Fellow at JHU SAIS Bologna, a 2021 MITACS Canadian Science Policy Fellow with the Department of National Defence, and a recent S&T Fellow with the IAI on global change research. In 2015–2016 he was a visiting scholar at LUISS University in Rome; he completed his MA at UBC Vancouver in European Studies, and his BA at University of Ottawa in International Studies. Julian has worked and studied in China, Australia, and Italy over the years in a variety of industries. Currently, he teaches courses on Canadian politics, IPE, public policy, IR, and multiculturalism, in addition to providing consulting advice on geopolitical risks.

Johannes Leitner is co-founder and Managing Partner at LM Political Risk and Strategy Advisory, a boutique-advisory firm in Austria. He is a recognised expert in the fields of geostrategy, trade compliance management, political risk management, and global business strategy with more than 15 years of professional experience. In addition, he is academic director of the Executive MBA International Management at the University of Applied Science BFI Vienna. Johannes Leitner frequently leads expert and academic panels at international conferences hosted by business and academic institutions, such as the University of Cambridge (2019), the Austrian Chamber of Commerce (2022), the Vienna University of Economics and Business (2023), the GCM Parker Conference for Compliance Professionals (2023), the Economic Council of Germany (2023), the Eastern Economic Council of the German Industry (2024). He received his PhD from the Vienna University of Economics and Business after graduating in International Business Studies at the Vienna University of Economics and Business, and in Political Science at the University of Vienna. He was also a visiting scholar at the Stockholm School of Economics.

Hannes Meissner is a political scientist focusing on political risk analysis and political risk management of multinational enterprises with a focus on Eastern Europe, Russia, South Caucasus, and Central Asia. He is Managing Partner at LM Political Risk and Strategy Advisory GmbH and an expert on (geo)political risks in Eastern Europe, the Black Sea region, and Central Asia in the Expert Team Global Political Economy at the University for Economics, Management & Finance – University of Applied Sciences BFI Vienna. He is also part of the Research Group Eastern Europe at the University of Vienna and is associated with the University of Gothenburg in the V-Dem Project, serving as a country expert on Turkmenistan. Hannes Meissner holds a doctoral degree (PhD) from the University of Hamburg. During his doctoral studies, he was a PhD fellow at the German Institute of Global and Area Studies (GIGA) and participated in the research programme "Corruption and Informal Networks" at the Research Centre for East European Studies at the University of Bremen. Hannes Meissner was a PhD scholar of the Konrad-Adenauer-Foundation (KAS) and received a full scholarship by the Federal Ministry of Education and Research of Germany.

"In the era of polycrisis, European Union officials have been looking for the road to resilience. This road will not be found without being able to understanding and manage political risk. This volume offers pioneering analysis and will be an excellent guide for the builders of EU strategic autonomy."
László Andor, Former EU Commissioner for Employment, Social Affairs and Inclusion (2010–2014)

"This Routledge Handbook covers impressive conceptual ground, offers the reader some interesting country cases to work with, and applies political risk analysis to some of the existential problems that the world faces today. It will serve as a valuable reference point for all students of political risk, including long-established scholars and practitioners working in this area."
Amrita Narlikar, Distinguished Fellow, Observer Research Foundation

"Political risk assessment requires a myriad of skills and sensitivities be applied to analysis today and then completely reconsidered and recalculated tomorrow.  The elusive skill of developing political acuity – understanding how the immediate context affects the decisions we make is made easier with this extensive review of theory and practice, ideas and evidence as well as real case analysis and reviews.  A necessary and helpful companion for anyone trying to understand and calculate risk in an ever-changing world."
Peter P. Constantinou, PhD, School of Public Policy and Administration, York University; President and CEO, Political Acuity Institute