1st Edition
Uncertainty in Global Politics
This book engages in a constructive, practical debate on the nature and effects of uncertainty in global politics. International contributors explore the processes associated with different forms of uncertainty in the context of environmental issues, diplomacy and international negotiations, and conflict and security. From the collapse of the Soviet Union to the 1997 and 2008 financial crises to the Arab Uprisings and the European migrant crisis and the COVID-19 pandemic, assessments of many events with lasting consequences on the global order have begun with: “why didn’t we see this coming?” There is much to learn from how phenomena that affect the global order generate uncertainty and what effects such uncertainty has on actors and issues. Presenting perspectives from all corners of the discipline and emerging and established scholars the book provides an up-to-date overview of the state of the literature; a concise yet conceptually rich theoretical framework; a mix of regional and global contemporary issues; process-oriented empirical evidence and methodological tools to assess different forms of uncertainty and propose practical solutions to addressing uncertainty in diverse contexts. The book will be of interest to scholars of global politics, international security, global environmental politics, international organizations and institutions, social movements, and conflict studies.
1 Introduction: Approaches to Uncertainty in Global Politics
Miriam Matejova and Anastasia Shesterinina
PART I. Uncertainty and Ordinary People
2 Beyond “Bluffing”: The Weaponization of Uncertainty in Russia’s War Against Ukraine
Jesse Driscoll and Natalia Savelyeva
3 “Politics of Uncertainty” in Practice: The Belarusian 2020 Presidential Election
Sofie Bedford
PART II. Uncertainty and the State
4 Arming up in Uncertainty: Congressional Response to Missile Defense Test Failures
Leah Matchett
5 “Why Didn’t They See It Coming?” Ground-level Diplomats, Foreign Policy, and Unconstitutional Regime Change
Haley J. Swedlund
PART III. Uncertainty in International Policy and Law
6 Legal Uncertainty and the Making of Maritime Boundaries
Umut Yüksel
7 Governing Uncertainty during the COVID-19 Pandemic: Change in Science-Policy Interfaces and Gender-Specific Effects in Europe
Miao-ling Lin Hasenkamp
8 Whitewashing Green Swans: Sustainable Finance and the Epistemic Foundations of Policy Paradigms
Christian Elliott
PART IV. Uncertainty at the Global Level
9 Uncertainty and Fiji’s Role in Shifting Norms on State-led Responses to Climate Mobilities
Liam Moore and Phil Orchard
10 Uncertain Uncertainty in Global Disaster Diplomacy
Ilan Kelman
11 Orbital Uncertainty and the Governance of Outer Space Activities
Adam Bower
12 Anticipatory Norm-building and the (Un)Making of Uncertainty: The Norm against Autonomous Weapons Systems
Berenike Prem
PART V. Embracing Uncertainty in IR Research
13 Studying Global Politics in Adverse Conditions: The Uncertainty Spectrum
Stephen Noakes
14 Making Friends with Uncertainty: Hopeful Futurities in Telling Stories about Global Politics
Roxani Krystalli, Shambhawi Tripathi and Katharina Hunfeld
15 Conclusion: Responses to Uncertainty in Global Politics
Miriam Matejova and Anastasia Shesterinina
Biography
Miriam Matejova is Assistant Professor in Political Science at Masaryk University and Fellow at Norman Paterson School of International Affairs, Carleton University. Her co-authored book Disaster Security: Using Intelligence and Military Planning for Energy and Environmental Security Risks was published with Cambridge University Press.
Anastasia Shesterinina is Chair in Comparative Politics, UKRI Future Leaders Fellow, and Director of the Centre for the Comparative Study of Civil War at the University of York. Her book Mobilizing in Uncertainty: Collective Identities and War in Abkhazia was published with Cornell University Press.
