160 pages | 1 B/W Illus.
This book looks at the way primarily external actors influenced and were influenced by the revolutionary chaos that erupted in the Arab Middle East in 2011 The Arab revolutions radically altered the Middle East dynamic and particularly the strategic standing of key actors, both locally and globally.
The ‘winners’ are leaders with strategic understanding of the region and a scheme for exploiting the chaos–Putin, Netanyahu and Iran’s Qasem Soleimani–along with, strikingly, the very institution of Arab monarchy. The ‘losers’ are the Arab autocrats who were deposed in Egypt, Libya and Yemen. The Palestinians, seemingly bypassed by the dynamic of Arab revolution, are also losers. So are the American presidents—Bush 43 and Obama—whose disastrous strategic decision-making catalyzed Arab state fragmentation and opened the gates of the Levant to Iran’s drive for regional hegemony. Western democratic society suffered too—from waves of Islamist terrorism and the effects of Muslim migration generated at least in part by Arab chaos. Only in the case of two leaders was the jury still out by 2019. Saudi Arabia’s brutal reformist crown prince, Mohamed bin Salman, put Saudi women in the driver’s seat but butchered and abused political rivals and neighbors alike. And US President Trump’s demand to get America out of the Middle East would actually make some sense in this chaotic context if it were embedded in a cohesive strategy.
Winners and Losers in the ‘Arab Spring’ takes a global look at a massive regional upheaval that is far from over. It is an essential read for everybody interested in the Arab revolutions, Middle East and international strategic affairs.
Preface: two images
Part I. Abetting the chaos: western losers
1. Bush and Blair in Iraq
2. Obama’s blunders: from Iran to Libya
3. Trump, a work in progress
4. Hapless political philosophers, counterproductive social media
5. Interim summary: US post-Cold War intervention and Arab collapse
Part II. Reaping the benefits: local winners
6. Qasem Soleimani and the Quds Force
7. Putin: Russia returns to the Middle East
8. Netanyahu leverages Arab chaos
9. Erdogan and the Kurds: the jury is still out
10. The Arab monarchies and MbS’s reformist mayhem
Part III. Conclusion: understanding a global grand-strategic event
Timeline of Arab chaos through December 2018
The UCLA Center for Middle East Development (CMED) series on Middle East security and cooperation features new and original scholarship on many of the most critical issues facing the region. Each book presents a variety of perspectives on a specific topic, such as democracy in the Middle East, dynamics of Israeli-Palestinian relations, Gulf security, and the gender factor in the Middle East. Aside from covering the key issues facing the region, the series also features a number of sub-themes under a single heading, covering security, social, political, and economic factors affecting the Middle East. Most books feature a multinational collection of authors who, for political reasons, do not always publish in the same volume or collection, so no matter what the issue, specialists from within and beyond the region offer a broad range of different viewpoints.