1st Edition

# Applications of Statistics and Probability in Civil Engineering

Under the pressure of harsh environmental conditions and natural hazards, large parts of the world population are struggling to maintain their livelihoods. Population growth, increasing land utilization and shrinking natural resources have led to an increasing demand of improved efficiency of existing technologies and the development of new ones. Additionally, growing complexities of societal functionalities and

interdependencies among infrastructures and urban habitats amplify consequences of malfunctions and failures. Malevolence, sustainable developments and climatic changes have more recently been added to the list of challenges. Over the last decades, substantial progress has been made in assessing and quantifying risks. However, with regard to the broader utilization of risk assessment as a means for societal strategic and operational planning, there is still a great need for further development.

**Applications of Statistics and Probability in Civil Engineering** contains the proceedings of the 11th International Conference on Applications of Statistics and Probability in Civil Engineering (ICASP11, Zürich, Switzerland, 1-4 August 2011). The book focuses not only on the more traditional technical issues, but also emphasizes the societal context of the decision making problems including the interaction between stakeholders. This holistic perspective supports the enhanced and sustainable allocation of limited resources for the improvement of safety, environment and economy. The book is of interest to researchers and scientists working in the field of risk and reliability in engineering; to professionals and engineers, including insurance and consulting companies working with natural hazards, design, operation and maintenance of civil engineering and industrial facilities; and to decision makers and professionals in the public sector, including nongovernmental organisations responsible for risk management in the public domain, e.g. building authorities, the health and safety executives, the United Nations and the World Economic Forum.

GS_119 — Applications (1)

Fragility curve of sewerage system due to spatial seismic damaged data

S. Nagata & K. Yamamoto

A new time-reversal imaging method for active Lamb wave damage monitoring of composite structures

S. Yan, N.Z. Zhao & Binbin He

Probabilistic concept for the validation of the effectiveness of countermeasures against early-age cracking in massive concrete structures

M. Krauß

Reliability evaluation of pipelines containing stress corrosion cracking defects

W. Zhou & S. Zhang

Proportionality of interventions to restore structural safety of existing bridges

E. Brühwiler

GS_129 — Applications (2)

Scenario-based seismic loss estimation for concrete buildings in the central US

J. Bai, M. Hueste & P. Gardoni

Application of the Monte-Carlo method to determine the time required for construction projects—Influence of ranges and correlations on probability distribution

C. Hofstadler

Advances in probability density evolution analysis of nonlinear stochastic systems

J. Li, J.B. Chen & W.L. Sun

Probability density evolution method and polynomial chaos expansion for nonlinear random vibration analysis

Y.B. Peng, J. Li & J.B. Chen

Reliability-based stochastic control for structures using magnetorheological dampers

J. Li, Z. Mei & J.B. Chen

GS_139 — Applications (3)

Random response of chain structure with parameter uncertainties

B.G. Liu, Y. Pan, Y. Ning & Z. Shen

A Bayesian acoustic emission source location algorithm: Extended model

T. Schumacher & D. Straub

Structural reliability criteria in relation to on-line control schemes

B.J. Leira

Probabilistic anomaly detection in structural monitoring data using a relevance vector machine

T. Saito

Assessment of fatigue crack growth by cohesive zone elements

P. Beaurepaire & G.I. Schuëller

Reliability-based design recommendations for FRP-reinforced concrete beams

S.E.C. Ribeiro & S.M.C. Diniz

GS_318 — Applications (4)

Simulating two-phase microstructures using level-cut filtered poisson fields and genetic algorithms

K. Teferra & E.N. Chatzi

Variance Reduction Monte Carlo methods for wind turbines

M.T. Sichani, S.R.K. Nielsen & P. Thoft-Christensen

A computational study of the buffered failure probability in reliability-based design optimization

H.G. Basova, R.T. Rockafellar & J.O. Royset

Advanced modeling and simulation tools: From surrogates to copulas

M. McCullough, A. Kareem, D.K. Kwon & L. Wang

A ground motion record selection procedure utilizing a vector-valued intensity measure for optimized incremental dynamic analysis

A.I. Theophilou & M.K. Chryssanthopoulos

GS_328 — Applications (5)

Reliability level of structures designed according to the design codes of the Republic of Belarus

Dz. Markouski & V. Tur

Classification and moral evaluation of uncertainties in engineering modeling

C. Murphy, C.E. Harris, Jr. & P. Gardoni

Quantitative safety goals—benefits and limits

H.-P. Berg & M. Krauß

Evaluating the source of the risks associated with natural events

P. Gardoni & C. Murphy

Metamodeling of aircraft InfraRed Signature dispersion

S. Lefebvre, A. Roblin & G. Durand

GS_338 — Applications (6)

Practical reliability approach to urban slope stability

R. Chowdhury & P. Flentje

Reliability-based optimization of maintenance and repair for a system of bridges

C.-A. Robelin & S.M. Madanat

System-level optimization of maintenance and replacement decisions for road networks

A. Medury & S.M. Madanat

Probability-based reliability assessment for real-time hybrid simulation

C. Chen & W. Pong

Probabilistic estimates of scenario loss through a two-stage Monte Carlo approach

I. Ioannou & M.K. Chryssanthopoulos

MS_332 — Applications and new developments of system reliability assessment (theory)

System reliability of soil slopes by Ditlevsen’s bounds

J. Zhang, W.H. Tang, L.M. Zhang & H.W. Huang

A recursive decomposition algorithm for reliability evaluation of binary system

W. Liu & J. Li

Seismic reliability analysis of wind turbine systems considering rotation effect

K. Huang, J.B. Chen & J. Li

Global reliability of large nonlinear structures

J.B. Chen, J. Li & J. Xu

Structural reliability analysis solved through a SVM-based response surface

U. Alibrandi & G. Ricciardi

Reliability assessment of parallel systems with brittle elements

Y.G. Zhao & Z.H. Lu

MS_114 — Bayesian networks for engineering risk analysis

Risk-based operation and maintenance of offshore wind turbines using Bayesian networks

J.J. Nielsen & J.D. Sørensen

On the use of Bayesian networks for Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis

N.M. Kuehn, C. Riggelsen & F. Scherbaum

Damage assessment of stranding events by means of Bayesian Networks

L. Garrè, B.J. Leira, T.-H. Nguyen & J. Amdahl

Effect of weather conditions, geography and population density on wildfire occurrence:A Bayesian Network model

P. Papakosta & D. Straub

Post-earthquake decision-making using influence diagrams

M.T. Bensi, A. Der Kiureghian & D. Straub

MS_115 — Bridge traffic loading (1)

Statistical analyses of Weigh-In-Motion data for bridge live load development

T.H.T. Chan & T.J. Miao

Recent advances in reliability based assessment of highway bridges

A. O’Connor & V. Pakrashi

Visualization of live-load probability distribution by Random Number generation and a Reliability Analysis of a bridge girder based on the Traffic Flow Model

O. Yoshida

Development of live load model for long span bridges

E.-S. Hwang, H.-M. Koh & S.W. Lee

MS_125 — Bridge traffic loading (2)

In-situ dynamic behavior of a railway bridge girder under fatigue causing traffic loading

A. Herwig & E. Brühwiler

Modelling of highway bridge traffic loading: Some recent advances

B. Enright, C.C. Caprani & E.J. OBrien

Truck load modeling and bridge code calibration

G. Fu & J. You

GS_113 — Decision analysis

Maintenance planning for multi-component systems subject to reliability constraints

R. Faddoul, W. Raphael, A.H. Soubra & A. Chateauneuf

Post-earthquake reliability assessment of structures subjected to after-shocks: An application to L’Aquila earthquake, 2009

F. Jalayer, D. Asprone, A. Prota & G. Manfredi

Supporting decisions on global health and life safety investments

M.H. Faber & E. Virguez-Rodriguez

Defining guidelines for the application of the marginal life saving costs principle for risk regulation

K. Fischer, E. Virguez-Rodriguez, M. Sánchez-Silva & M.H. Faber

Adaption of option pricing algorithm to real time decision optimization in the face of emerging natural hazards

A. Anders & K. Nishijima

MS_116 — Fuzzy analysis and soft computing methods in reliability assessment and optimization (1)

Bayesian quantification of inconsistent information

M. Stein & M. Beer

Damage assessment of RC slabs using fuzzy pattern recognition with feature selection

H. Furuta, W. Adachi, K. Nakatsu, Y. Nomura & H. Hattori

Clustering of multiple system reliability design solutions for decision making

E. Zio & R. Bazzo

Reliability assessment via differential evolution

S. Casciati

MS_126 — Fuzzy analysis and soft computing methods in reliability assessment and optimization (2)

Sensitivity measures for fuzzy numbers based on Artificial Neural Networks

S. Pannier & W. Graf

A method for the verified solution of finite element models with uncertain node locations

A.P. Smith, J. Garloff & H. Werkle

An approach on soundings for geotechnical site investigation

D. Boumezerane, S. Belkacemi & B. Zlender

Strong law of large numbers on the Kôpka D-posets

M. Kuková & B. Riečan

MS_136 — Fuzzy analysis and soft computing methods in reliability assessment and optimization (3)

Application of Cokriging method to structural reliability problems

W. Zhao & W. Wang

On predictive densities in fuzzy Bayesian inference

R. Viertl

Robustness based design of structures under consideration of generalized uncertainty models

J.-U. Sickert, S. Pannier, W. Graf & M. Kaliske

GS_238 — Life-cycle analysis

Optimal next inspection time for bridges based on corrosion deterioration

D. De León, C. González-Pérez, V. Bisadi, P. Gardoni, M. Head & S. Hurlebaus

Probabilistic estimation of seismic fragility parameters for deteriorated reinforced concrete bridges

A. Alipour, B. Shafei & M. Shinozuka

Probabilistic bridge network life-cycle connectivity assessment and optimization

P. Bocchini & D.M. Frangopol

Life-cycle analysis of embodied energy for aging bridges subject to seismic hazards

J. Ghosh, C. Tapia & J.E. Padgett

MS_215 — Maintenance and safety of aging infrastructure (1)

Reliability analysis of prestressed concrete bridges located in a marine environment

M. Akiyama, D.M. Frangopol & I. Yoshida

Optimization of assessment strategies for aging bridges

A.D. Orcési & D.M. Frangopol

Improved bridge capacity rating methods based on system reliability assessment

N. Wang, B.R. Ellingwood & A.-H. Zureick

Reliability assessment and life prediction for serviceability of concrete bridges

D.-G. Lu, W. Jiang, X.-P. Fan & Y.-X. Yang

MS_225 — Maintenance and safety of aging infrastructure (2)

Using information criteria to classify damage states for structural health monitoring

H. Noh, A.C. Cheung & A.S. Kiremidjian

A Bayesian approach to the assessment of fracture toughness of reactor components

M.D. Pandey & M. Wang

A numerical study of maintenance strategy for concrete structures in marine environment

K.F. Tee & C.Q. Li

Structure lifecycle as a non-stationary random process

G. Fu & D. Devaraj

MS_118 — Meta-models/surrogate models for uncertainty propagation, sensitivity and reliability analysis (1)

A numerical comparison of Kriging-based sequential strategies for estimating a probability of failure

L. Li, J. Bect & E. Vazquez

Sensitivity and reliability analysis of a globe valve using an adaptive sparse polynomial chaos expansion

M. Berveiller & G. Blatman

Use of HDMR metamodel for seismic fragility analysis

I. Zentner, E. Borgonovo & S. Tarantola

Metamodel-based importance sampling for the simulation of rare events

V. Dubourg, F. Deheeger & B. Sudret

Principal component analysis and Least Angle Regression in spectral stochastic finite element analysis

G. Blatman & B. Sudret

MS_128 — Meta-models/surrogate models for uncertainty propagation, sensitivity and reliability analysis (2)

A Kriging improvement of the Monte Carlo simulation: AK-MCS method

B. Echard, N. Gayton & M. Lemaire

RPCM: A strategy to perform reliability analysis using polynomial chaos and resampling—Application to fatigue design

A. Notin, J.L. Dulong, P. Villon, N. Gayton, M. Lemaire & H. Jaffal

Distribution-based global sensitivity analysis in case of correlated input parameters using polynomial chaos expansions

Y. Caniou & B. Sudret

Reliability-based design optimization of an imperfect submarine pressure hull

V. Dubourg, J.-M. Bourinet, B. Sudret & M. Cazuguel

Propagation of variability in railway dynamics simulations

G. Perrin, C. Funfschilling & B. Sudret

GS_123 — Model selection, aggregation and testing for probabilistic seismic hazard assessment (1)

Learning aggregations of ground-motion models using data

C. Riggelsen, N. Gianniotis & F. Scherbaum

The collaboratory for the Study of Earthquake Predictability: Perspectives on evaluation and testing for seismic hazard

D. Schorlemmer, D.D. Jackson, J.D. Zechar & T.H. Jordan

Model selection and uncertainty in earthquake hazard analysis

I.G. Main, M. Naylor, J. Greenhough, S. Touati, A.F. Bell & J. McCloskey

Benefits of the use of precariously balanced rocks and other fragile geological features for testing the predictions of probabilistic seismic hazard analysis

J.G. Anderson, J.N. Brune, M. Purvance, G. Biasi & R. Anooshehpoor

GS_133 — Model selection, aggregation and testing for probabilistic seismic hazard assessment (2)

Assessing reliability and skill of earthquake forecasting models in Italy

W. Marzocchi

On the use of observations for constraining probabilistic seismic hazard estimates—brief review of existing methods

C. Beauval

Quantification of epistemic uncertainties in probabilistic seismic hazard analysis

F. Scherbaum, N. Kuehn, M.Ohrnberger, C. Riggelsen & N. Gianniotis

MS_137 — Modelling for Risk management in construction projects

Acceptance criteria for the spatial variability of the concrete cover depth in a Swiss tunnel

V. Malioka, S. Matsch & M.H. Faber

Cost and time correlations in linear infrastructure construction

Y. Moret & H.H. Einstein

Germa, a national research project: Multifactor risk control and management in complex civil engineering projects

D. Morand, P. Perret, L. Demilecamps & A. Machu

Tunnelling optimization by risk analysis techniques

D. Kolic

Modeling methodology of the Risk Breakdown Structure for project risk management in construction

R. Mehdizadeh, D. Breysse & M. Chaplain

How integrated should risk management and quality management be?

B. Munier & L. Dehouck

MS_135 — Multiple hazards risk assessment and mitigation

Estimation of damage loss due to hurricane wind and induced surge

Y. Li, S.O. Bjarnadottir, A. Ahuja, J.W. van de Lindt & T. Dao

Methodological and probabilistic issues in multi-hazard engineering design

E. Simiu, F.A. Potra & D. Duthinh

Decision-making for civil infrastructure exposed to low-probability, high-consequence hazards: The role of risk-aversion

E.J. Cha & B.R. Ellingwood

GS_316 — Natural hazards modeling

Hazard-level specific hurricane event characterization

Y. Wang & D.V. Rosowsky

A comprehensive approach for online fast hurricane-risk prediction

A.A. Taflanidis, A.B. Kennedy, J.J. Westerink, M. Hope, S. Tanaka, J. Smith & K.F. Cheung

Optimal seismic design of steel structures using approximate methods

A. Zacharenaki, M. Fragiadakis & M. Papadrakakis

Development and calibration of central pressure decay models for hurricane simulation

F. Liu & W. Pang

Reliability analysis of the Swiss avalanche warning system

M. Bründl & B. Heil

MS_216 — Performance-based design for structures subject to natural hazard (1)

Probabilistic hazard model of inelastic response of SDOF system based on equivalent linearization technique

Y. Mori, S. Kojima & K. Ibuki

Performance-based design of structures under Aeolian Hazard

M. Ciampoli & F. Petrini

Probabilistic and deterministic Soil Structure Interaction (SSI) analysis

A. Hashemi, T. Elkhoraibi & F. Ostadan

Seismic damage assessment of curved bridges using fragility analysis

M. Mohseni & T.R. Norton

A framework for performance-based design and assessment of buildings subjected to extreme snow loads

A.B. Liel, K.A. Jackson & J.M. Geis

MS_226 — Performance-based design for structures subject to natural hazard (2)

Probabilistic assessment of disproportionate collapse potential of steel moment resisting frames

G. Xu & B.R. Ellingwood

Life-cycle seismic repair cost assessment and sensitivity analysis

A.A. Taflanidis

A method for probabilistic seismic design of RC structures

P. Franchin & P.E. Pinto

A statistical analysis of steel truss temperature data recorded during fire resistance tests

D.K. Banerjee, E. Simiu, J.L. Gross & R. Kacker

MS_124 — Probabilistic calibration of codes (1)

Conventional probabilistic models for calibration of codes

M. Holický & M. Sykora

Comparison of load combination models for probabilistic calibrations

M. Sykora & M. Holický

Calibration of partial factors for design of concrete structures

J. Marková & M. Holický

Re-calibration of steel tension members design criteria in AASHTO LRFD bridge design code

M. Mohseni & T.R. Norton

MS_134 — Probabilistic calibration of codes (2)

Reliability basis for adopting Eurocodes as South African standards

J.V. Retief, C. Barnardo & M. Dithinde

Reliability-based design/calibration using enhanced Monte Carlo

A. Naess, M.A. Maes & M.R. Dann

Calculation of partial safety factors

T.T. Poutanen

MS_214 — Probabilistic methods for the assessment of existing concrete structures (1)

Corrosion-crack path based probabilistic model to predict the durability behavior of RC components

W.L. Jin & X.Z. Wang

Random fields for the modeling of deteriorated structures

D.L. Allaix, V.I. Carbone & G. Mancini

Semi-probabilistic models for the assessment of existing concrete structures

P. Tanner, C. Lara & M. Prieto

Target reliability levels for assessment of existing structures

M. Sykora, M. Holický & J. Marková

MS_224 — Probabilistic methods for the assessment of existing concrete structures (2)

Monitoring and influence lines based performance indicators

A. Strauss, R. Wendner, K. Bergmeister & Dan M. Frangopol

Jointless bridges—performance assessment of soil-structure interaction

R. Wendner, A. Strauss & K. Bergmeister

A semi-probabilistic safety-checking format for seismic assessment of existing RC buildings

F. Jalayer, L. Elefante, I. Iervolino & G. Manfredi

Stochastic process deterioration modelling for adaptive inspections

A. Ohadi & T. Micic

MS_234 — Probabilistic methods for the assessment of existing concrete structures (3)

Development and implementation of a semi-probabilistic procedure for the assessment of the future condition of existing concrete structures

J. Gulikers

Statistical models for the material parameters of damaged concrete bridges

R. Lenner, M. Keuser & T. Braml

Safety assessment of existing concrete slab bridges for shear capacity

R.D.J.M. Steenbergen, A. de Boer & C. van der Veen

MS_138 — Probabilistic methods in hydraulic and spatial structural analysis

Forecast analysis of traffic flow through urban road tunnel based on Artificial Intelligent method

L. Zhong, J. Wu & H. Xia

Non-orthogonal polynomial expansion based approach for structural reliability analysis

B. Huang & C. Zhang

Application of the sampling theory and methods in random decrement technique

W. Shi, Z. Li, H. Wu & Y. Lin

Randomness of chloride ion concentration in existing concrete under tidal environment

J. Zhang, H. Zheng, L. Wang, J. Zhou & J. Wang

GS_112 — Probabilistic modeling in engineering (1)

Characterization of random fields at multiple scales: An efficient conditional simulation procedure and applications in geomechanics

J.W. Baker, A. Seifried, J.E. Andrade & Q. Chen

Performance–based probabilistic capacity models and fragility estimates for reinforced concrete column subject to vehicle collision

H. Sharma, P. Gardoni & S. Hurlebaus

Adaption of car park loads according to DIN 1055-3 to the current trend of increasing vehicle weights

H. Schmidt & M. Heimann

Probabilistic modelling of HSC and UHPC slender columns in high-rise buildings

H. Schmidt & M. Heimann

Estimating marginal densities of materials with multiple anomaly types

M.P. Enright & R.C. McClung

GS_122 — Probabilistic modeling in engineering (2)

Probabilistic fatigue design of composite material for wind turbine blades

H.S. Toft & J.D. Sørensen

Fragility estimates for the Fabela Bridge in Mexico incorporating vibration field data

V. Bisadi, M. Head, P. Gardoni, S. Hurlebaus & D. De Leon Escobedo

Probabilistic demand model based on the virtual work method and fragility estimates for offshore wind turbine support structures

M. Mardfekri, P. Gardoni & J.M. Roesset

Probability-based modeling of chloride-induced corrosion in concrete structures including parameters correlation

Z. Lounis, B. Saassouh & J. Zhang

Identification of the filament stress transfer length in multifilament yarns using fiber bundle model and chain-of-bundles model

R. Rypl, R. Chudoba & M. Vořechovský

GS_132 — Probabilistic modeling in engineering (3)

Probabilistic wind-borne debris trajectory model for building envelope impact risk assessment

M. Grayson, W. Pang & S. Schiff

Reliability estimation of deteriorated RC-structures considering various observation data

I. Yoshida & M. Akiyama

A Bayesian framework to predict deformations during supported excavations based on a semi-empirical method

J.-K. Park, P. Gardoni & G. Biscontin

Effects of structural uncertainty/variability on the linear and yielding response of a shear frame

C.R. Wharton, T.L. Attard, A. Chaudhary & M.P. Mignolet

Non-parametric Bayesian updating within the assessment of reliability for offshore wind turbine support structures

J.G. Rangel-Ramírez & J.D. Sørensen

GS_212 — Probabilistic modeling in engineering (4)

Software for multi-model reliability analysis

M. Mahsuli & T. Haukaas

Probabilistic modeling of vehicle impact as accidental action

C.U. Kunz

Benchmark of random fields simulation methods and links with identification methods

X.H. Dang, B. Sudret & M. Berveiller

Size effect on probability distribution of fatigue lifetime of quasibrittle structures

Jia-Liang Le & Z.P. Bažant

MS_117 — Probabilistic modelling of the behaviour of timber in structures (1)

Comparative risk assessment of secondary structures in wide-span timber structures

S. Miraglia, P. Dietsch & D. Straub

Evolution of probabilistic analysis of timber structures from second-moment reliability methods to fragility analysis

D.V. Rosowsky

Performance of timber buildings in earthquakes

F. Lam, M. Li, R.O. Foschi, S. Nakajima & T. Nakagawa

A new approach to consider moisture induced eigen-stress in timber by load combination

M. Häglund & F. Carlsson

Probabilistic methods for performance based service life evaluation of wooden components

S. Thelandersson, T. Isaksson, M. Häglund & E. Frühwald

MS_127 — Probabilistic modelling of the behaviour of timber in structures (2)

Probabilistic robustness analysis of timber structures—results from EU COST action E55:WG3

P.H. Kirkegaard & J.D. Sørensen

Modelling of uncertainties of timber structures due to growth inhomogeneities

C. Jenkel, R. Lang & M. Kaliske

Structural timber detailing

A. Jorissen

Multiscale variability of stiffness properties of timber boards

G. Fink & J. Kohler

Hierarchical modeling of structural timber material properties by means of Bayesian Probabilistic Networks

M. Deublein, M. Schlosser & M.H. Faber

MS_319 — Probabilistic models and methods for risk assessment of lifeline networks and decision support (1)

Clustering methods for risk assessment of infrastructure network systems

C. Gómez, M. Sánchez-Silva & L. Dueñas-Osorio

Regional assessment of hurricane risk to Houston bridge infrastructure

N. Ataei, C.D. Arnold & J.E. Padgett

Vulnerability of the Swiss electric power transmission grid against natural hazards

M. Raschke, E. Bilis & W. Kröger

Evaluation of seismic vulnerability of sewerage pipelines based on assessment of the damage data in the 1995 Kobe earthquake

G. Shoji, S. Naba & S. Nagata

Seismic fragility analysis of telecommunication systems

K. Leelardcharoen, J.I. Craig, B.J. Goodno & L. Dueñas-Osorio

MS_329 — Probabilistic models and methods for risk assessment of lifeline networks and decision support (2)

Recursive reliability assessment of radial lifeline systems with correlated component failures

J. Rojo & L. Dueñas-Osorio

Post-disaster damage detection for pipeline networks by Matrix-based System Reliability analysis

W.-H. Kang & J. Song

Efficient identification of critical disjoint cut sets and link sets for network reliability analysis 434

H.-W. Lim & J. Song

Seismic risk assessment of spatially-distributed systems using ground-motion models fitted considering spatial correlation

N. Jayaram & J.W. Baker

A FORM-based analysis of lifeline networks using a multivariate seismic intensity model

M. Miller, J. Baker, H.-W. Lim, J. Song & N. Jayaram

GS_211 — Probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (1)

Probabilistic design of supplemental dampers for base-isolated bridges

A.A. Taflanidis

Probabilistic seismic hazard analysis incorporating basin amplification for shallow crustal earthquakes

T. Itoi & T. Takada

Spatial sensitivity of seismic hazard results to background seismic activity models

N. Yilmaz & M.S. Yucemen

Stochastic field analyses of the site amplification factors based on observed and inversely analyzed real strong ground motion in Japan

M. Fukuda, N. Narita, K. Ogawa, M. Sugai & A. Nozu

Development of seismic margin-risk diagram

M. Nakajima, Y. Ohtori & K. Hirata

GS_221 — Probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (2)

Orientation dependency of peak ductility demand for seismic performance evaluation

K. Goda

Methodology and results of a nuclear power plant seismic probabilistic safety assessment

M. Richner, S. Tinic, D. Proske, M. Ravindra, R. Campbell, F. Beigi & A. Asfura

Redundancy effects on seismic reliability of steel frame structures

Q. Li, Q. Zhang, J. Fan & C. Zhang

Regression models for predicting the probability of near-fault earthquake ground motion pulses, and their period

S.K. Shahi & J.W. Baker

Performance-based direct displacement design of engineered timber building in seismic regions

Y. Wang, D.V. Rosowsky & W.C. Pang

GS_231 — Probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (3)

Influence of material strength scattering on the ductile response of steel structures

M. Gündel, B. Hoffmeister & M. Feldmann

A response spectrum based stochastic approach to estimate the peak response of structures subject to seismic pounding

A. Giaralis & P.D. Spanos

On the schematization of design response spectra as a stochastic model

S. Silvestri, G. Gasparini & T. Trombetti

A new procedure for probabilistic seismic hazard analysis

G. Gasparini, S. Silvestri & T. Trombetti

Vector-valued probabilistic seismic hazard analysis of correlated ground motion parameters

P. Bazzurro & J. Park

MS_236 — Progresses and challenges in probabilistic modeling of tropical storm risks

Hurricane hazard characterization for performance-based design

D.V. Rosowsky, Y. Wang & K.H. Lee

Tropical cyclone return periods: Comparison of a stochastic track model with an extreme value analysis of historic data

J. Kleinn & T.M. Hall

Future typhoon projection using stochastic typhoon model under global climate change

T. Yasuda, S. Nakajo, N. Mori, H. Mase, Y. Hayashi & S. Kunitomi

Challenges in developing the Florida public hurricane loss model for personal residential and commercial residential structures

G.L. Pita, J.-P. Pinelli, T. Johnson, K. Gurley, J. Weekes & S. Hamid

Issues of epistemic uncertainty treatment in decision analysis for tropical cyclone risk management

M. Graf & K. Nishijima

Assessment of hurricane risk and estimates of insured losses using catastrophe modeling

S.S. Hamid, J.-P. Pinelli, S.-C. Chen & K. Gurley

MS_326 — Recent advances in geotechnical risk and reliability (1)

Methods for incorporating a variety of site response estimates into seismic hazard maps

E.M. Thompson & L.G. Baise

Reliability-based design of shallow foundations in cohesionless soils under compression loading: Ultimate limit state

S.O. Akbas & F.H. Kulhawy

Effect of spatial variability on reliability evaluation of an earth slope

Y. Wang, Z.J. Cao & S.K. Au

Probabilistic characteristics of strip footing bearing capacity evaluated by random finite element method

J. Pieczyńska, W. Puła, D.V. Griffiths & G.A. Fenton

Evaluation of reliabilities of drilled shafts using bi-directional pile load test results

J.H. Park, D. Kim, K. Kwak, J.H. Lee & M. Chung

GS_336 — Recent advances in geotechnical risk and reliability (2)

Development of a computer-based evaluation system for soil parameters in the reliability design method

Y. Watabe, M. Tanaka, T. Nishioka & I. Nozaki

On risk-based geotechnical site investigation of flood defenses

T. Schweckendiek, P.H.A.J.M. van Gelder & E.O.F. Calle

Challenges in limit equilibrium based slope reliability problems

J. Ching, K.-K. Phoon & Y.-G. Hu

Spatial distributions of strength of an embankment based on synthesis of sounding tests and surface wave method

S. Nishimura, Y. Takayama, K. Fujisawa, M. Suzuki & A. Murakami

Evaluating model uncertainty of a CPT-based model for earthquake-induced soil liquefaction

Y.F. Lee, Y.Y. Chi & C.H. Juang

GS_312 — Reliability methods (1)

System reliability analysis of fatigue-induced, cascading failures using critical failure sequences identified by selective searching technique

N. Kurtz, J. Song, S.-Y. Ok & D.-S. Kim

Estimation of failure rates of crude product pipelines

A.W. Dawotola, P.H.A.J.M. van Gelder, J.J. Charima & J.K. Vrijling

Reliability analysis with probabilistic and interval variables

K. Zaman, M. McDonald, S. Rangavajhala & S. Mahadevan

Dormant reliability analysis for dam spillways

M. Kalantarnia, L. Chouinard & S. Foltz

On the utilization of monitoring data in an ultimate limit state reliability analysis

S. Thöns, M.H. Faber & W. Rücker

GS_322 — Reliability methods (2)

Identification of random variables via Markov Chain Monte Carlo: Benefits on reliability analysis

F. Lanata & F. Schoefs

Risk quantification of fatigue-induced sequential failures by Branch-and-Bound method employing system reliability bounds

Y.-J. Lee & J. Song

Reliability analysis of corroding RC members using adaptive Response Surface Method

A.N. Kallias & M.I. Rafiq

Uncertain and unavoidable—reliability estimation in wave and tidal energy systems

J. Flinn & C.B. Ferreira

Post earthquake bridge damage assessment coupling field data and reliability tool

M. Torbol, R. Baghaei, J. Kang & M. Feng

MS_235 — Reliability of marine energy converters

Reliability of tidal stream turbine blades

D.V. Val & L. Chernin

Reliability of power train components in tidal stream turbines

D.V. Val & C. Iliev

Reliability methodology for evaluating tidal stream devices

T.M. Delorm & P.J. Tavner

Probabilistic design of wave energy devices

J.D. Sørensen, J.P. Kofoed & C.B. Ferreira

MS_217 — Risk and reliability analysis for interdependent infrastructure systems (1)

Seismic risk and hierarchy importance of interdependent lifelines: Methodology and important issues

M.N. Alexoudi, K.G. Kakderi & K.D. Pitilakis

Modeling cascading failures in ‘systems of systems’ with uncertain behavior

E. Zio & G. Sansavini

Modeling of restoration process associated with lifeline systems and the interdependency due to a seismic disaster

G. Shoji & A. Toyota

A new modeling approach for resolving CI interdependency issues

C. Nan & W. Kröger

MS_227 — Risk and reliability analysis for interdependent infrastructure systems (2)

Models of interdependence propagation for the fragility assessment of urban networks

I. Hernandez-Fajardo & L. Dueñas-Osorio

On robust decision-making in interdependent economic and infrastructure systems

R. Pant & K. Barker

Broadening the discourse on infrastructure interdependence by modeling the “Ecology” of infrastructure systems

S. LaRocca, S.D. Guikema, J. Cole & E. Sanderson

Geographical vulnerability analysis of interdependent critical infrastructures

J. Johansson & H. Hassel

GS_219 — Risk assessment (1)

Revisiting risk management in major infrastructure projects—why a socio-technical systems approach makes sense

N.J. Smith, B. Aritua, C. Clegg & R. Challenger

Building owners’ requirement for seismic risk communication during structural design

K. Hirata & T. Ishikawa

Global flood risk assessment of major port cities

N. Lind, M. Pandey & J. Nathwani

Assessment of risk to life safety in fire compartments using an adaptive response surface methodology

C. Albrecht & D. Hosser

Effects of uncertainty on the seismic collapse risk of light-frame wood buildings

Y.-J. Yin & Y. Li

GS_229 — Risk assessment (2)

Estimation of risk for design of structures exposed to combined effects of hurricane wind speed and storm surge hazards

L.T. Phan & E. Simiu

Risk assessment for road tunnels in Germany—development and application of quantitative methods

F. Heimbecher & B. Kohl

Risk assessment for the hazard scenario “Braking action on double track railway bridges”

C. Fermaud, F. Stenger, V. Malioka & M. Schenkel

Regional risk by reliability analysis

M. Mahsuli & T. Haukaas

A probabilistic framework for generic fire risk assessment and risk-based decision making in buildings

G. De Sanctis, K. Fischer, J. Kohler, M. Fontana & M.H. Faber

MS_218 — Risk assessment and decision support systems for interdependent lifeline infrastructures (1)

Optimum interface topologies between urban infrastructure systems

M. Ouyang, L. Dueñas-Osorio & X. Min

Risk assessment of shutdown of water purification plant caused by Tohnankai-Nankai earthquakes tsunami surge

M. Nakai & M. Miyajima

Disaster restoration support technologies for electric power distribution equipment

Y. Shumuta, T. Todou, K. Masukawa & T. Ishikawa

Ethical consideration for appropriate structural safety

J. Kanda & D.G. Elms

Risk assessment and maintenance of existing trunk lines with a new subsidiary system under seismic and deteriorating environments

T. Imai & T. Koike

MS_228 — Risk assessment and decision support systems for interdependent lifeline infrastructures (2)

Seismic risk and hierarchy importance of interdependent lifelines and infrastructures within port facilities: Application in Thessaloniki’s Port (Greece)

K.G. Kakderi, M.N. Alexoudi & K.D. Pitilakis

A fuzzy comparative model for integrated risk ranking and mitigation prioritization of infrastructures; part 1: Methodology

M.B. Javanbarg, C. Scawthorn, J. Kiyono, B. Shahbodaghkhan & S. Takada

A fuzzy comparative model for integrated risk ranking and mitigation prioritization of infrastructures; part 2: Application

J. Kiyono, M.B. Javanbarg, S. Takada, C. Scawthorn & M. Kobayashi

A questionnaire survey to customers on willingness to pay for earthquake countermeasures of water supply system by using risk communication

Y. Taniguchi & M. Miyajima

MS_131 — Risk-based assessment of climate change adaptation strategies for infrastructure

Deterioration of concrete structures in Australia under changing environment

M.G. Stewart, X. Wang & M. Nguyen

Probabilistic-based assessment of the impacts of climate change on hurricane loss and adaptation strategies

S.O. Bjarnadottir, Y. Li & M.G. Stewart

Considerations for probabilistic assessment of the effect of global warming on durability of corroding RC structures

E. Bastidas-Arteaga, F. Schoefs & M.G. Stewart

Development of adaptive flood risk management strategies under uncertainty

H. Harvey & J.W. Hall

Probabilistic assessment of clay earthfill dams subject to variable precipitation

M.-C. Preziosi & T. Micic

MS_323 — Robustness of structures (1)

Robustness of structures—a report on a joint European project

M.H. Faber, A.C.W.M. Vrouwenvelder, J.D. Sørensen, M.K. Chryssanthopoulos & H. Narasimhan

A threat independent approach to evaluating the robustness of structures

S.M. Marjanishvili

Risk and robustness of road tunnels

D. Diamantidis & M. Holický

Progressive collapse in multi-storey steel frames: The effect of varying column spacing

V. Janssens & D.W. O’Dwyer

Achieving robustness and mitigating risk of disproportionate collapse in building

B.R. Ellingwood

MS_333 — Robustness of structures (2)

Probability based assessment of bridge exposed to extraordinary circumstances

I. Björnsson, S. Thelandersson & K. Petersen

Robust flood defences in a changing environment

H.G. Voortman & M. Veendorp

Experimental and computational assessment of robustness of steel and reinforced concrete framed buildings

J.A. Main, Y. Bao, F. Sadek & H.S. Lew

Fragility curve of steel containment failure due to hydrogen deflagration

D. Proske & M. Richner

Seismic damage probabilities for segmented buried pipelines

S. Toprak, E. Nacaroglu & A.C. Koc

A reliability-based measure of robustness for concrete structures subjected to corrosion

E.S. Cavaco, L.A.C. Neves & J.R. Casas

MS_237 — Social perspectives for hazards decision

Making the case for resilience investments

E. Seville, J. Vargo, J. Stevenson & A. Stephenson

Rebuilding L’Aquila following the 2009 earthquake: Priorities and perspectives

A.B. Liel, R.B. Corotis, J. Sutton, G. Camata, E. Spacone & R. Holtzman

The function of regulations and incentives for societal safety

A. Lentz & I.B. Kroon

Political pitfalls in hazards planning

R. Corotis

MS_314 — Spatial probabilistic modeling of deterioration and inspection (1)

Optimization of inspection and monitoring of structures in case of spatial fields of deterioration/properties

F. Schoefs, T.V. Tran & E. Bastidas-Arteaga

Repair efficiency and Life-Cycle Cost of RC bridge deck maintenance subjected to spatially variable corrosion damage

J.A. Mullard & M.G. Stewart

A unified probabilistic treatment for in-line inspection with respect to detectability, reportability, false call potential and depth sizing

M.A. Maes & M.R. Dann

Spatial hierarchical POD model for in-line inspection data

M.R. Dann & M.A. Maes

MS_324 — Spatial probabilistic modeling of deterioration and inspection (2)

Reliability of pipelines under corrosion and mechanical damage

F.A.V. Bazán & A.T. Beck

The performance of sampling inspections for localized deterioration process

S.P. Kuniewski & J.A.M. van der Weide

Influence of including spatial variability modelling on whole life management of concrete structures

A.J. O’Connor

Reliability updating with inspection and monitoring data in deteriorating reinforced concrete slabs

D. Straub

MS_334 — Spatial probabilistic modeling of deterioration and inspection (3)

Spatial deterioration model updating of aging RC structures based on inspection information

K.G. Papakonstantinou & M. Shinozuka

Statistical analysis of the surfaces of corroded mild steel plates

R.E. Melchers, M. Ahammed, R. Jeffrey & G. Simundic

Random field modelling of spatial variability in FRP composite materials

S. Sriramula & M.K. Chryssanthopoulos

Spatial variability of potential fields in reinforced concrete structures

S. Kessler, C. Gehlen, D. Straub & M. Huber

GS_317 — Statistical investigations and probabilistic modeling (1)

Bayesian models for the detection of high risk locations on Portuguese motorways

S.M. Azeredo-Lopes & J.L. Cardoso

Statistical analysis of mechanical properties of prestressing strands

L. Jacinto, M. Pipa, L.O. Santos & L.C. Neves

Probabilistic model for damage accumulation in concrete tunnel lining and its application to optimal repair strategy

H. Tanaka, O. Maruyama & A. Sutoh

Application of extreme value theory to discriminate between failure modes

R.E. Melchers

Development of state-based Markovian transition probabilities for bridge condition estimation

T.M. Reale & A.J. O’Connor

GS_327 — Statistical investigations and probabilistic modeling (2)

A model for the failure probability of components of electrical substations under seismic load

M. Raschke

A study of the stochastic properties of auto-correlation coefficients for microtremor data simultaneously observed at two sites

H. Morikawa, K. Iiyama & M. Ohori

A Bayesian approach to analysing structural uncertainties in flood inundation models

L. Manning & J.W. Hall

Seismic loss modeling of two building portfolios using generalized Pareto model and copula

K. Goda & J. Ren

ACER function plots as a diagnostic tool for extreme value prediction

A. Naess & O. Gaidai

MS_337 — Statistical investigations and probabilistic modeling (3)

Statistical analysis of NDT results for analysing the efficiency of repair techniques of wharves: The MAREO project

F. Benmeddour, G. Villain, X. Dérobert, O. Abraham, F. Schoefs, M. Perrin, S. Bonnet & M. Choinska

The αδ method for reliability modeling and improvement of NDT-tools for Risk Based Inspection (RBI): Application to corroded structures

F. Schoefs & J. Boéro

Fluctuation Analysis of stochastic physical systems based on Probability Density Evolution Method

W.L. Sun, J. Li & J.B. Chen

The use of quasi-symmetric point method in probability density evolution method

J. Xu, J.B. Chen & J. Li

MS_331 — Stochastic models and simulation of earthquake ground motions

Seismic risk sensitivity analysis focusing on stochastic ground motion modeling

A.A. Taflanidis & C. Vetter

Simulation of seismic ground motion time histories from data using a non Gaussian stochastic model

I. Zentner, F. Poirion & P. Cacciola

Stochastic model for earthquake ground motion using wavelet packets

Y. Yamamoto & J.W. Baker

Simulation of non-stationary differential support motions accounting for varying soil conditions

K. Konakli & A. Der Kiureghian

Stochastic simulation of near-fault ground motions for specified earthquake and site characteristics

M. Dabaghi, S. Rezaeian & A. Der Kiureghian

GS_222 — Structural reliability (1)

Variance reducing capacity of concrete conformity control in structural reliability analysis under parameter uncertainties

R. Caspeele & L. Taerwe

Corrosion effects onto the safety of steel sheet pile walls in marine environment

P. Osório, C. Odenbreit, M. Greger & T. Vrouwenvelder

Robustness analysis of structural systems considering accidental actions

N. Kagho, A. Orcési & C. Cremona

A coupling Bayesian/reliability approach for robust updating applications

B. Richard, L. Adelaide, A. Orcési & C. Cremona

Comparative study of safety formats for nonlinear finite element analysis of concrete structures

H. Schlune, M. Plos & K. Gylltoft

GS_232 — Structural reliability (2)

Probabilistic analysis of iced structures

J. Marková

Probabilistic durability assessment of power-producing facilities

M. Holický & J. Marková

Uncertainty effects on dynamic response evaluations of wind energy offshore platform

K. Kawano, Y. Kimura, K. Nagafuchi & T. Takahashi

Seismic risk assessment of building-elevator systems based on simulated ground motion considering long period components and phase characteristics

M. Kohiyama & T. Kita

Structural reliability analysis of steel sheet-pile seawalls subjected to corrosion in harbour environment

J. Boéro, H. Yáñez-Godoy, B. Capra & F. Schoefs

GS_311 — Structural reliability (3)

Reliability-based design optimization via a concurrent process

K.W. Liao

Efficient method for the probability assessment of ellipsoidal limit state surface

S.D. Koduru

Modeling structural degradation of RC bridge columns subjected to cumulative seismic damage and their fragility estimates

R. Kumar & P. Gardoni

Calibration of reliability-based load rating method for New York State

M. Ghosn, B. Sivakumar & F. Miao

Structural reliability in the fire situation, the effect of active fire safety

J.-B. Schleich

GS_321 — Structural reliability (4)

Seismic fragility of RC bridges using the data obtained from nondestructive testing

Q. Huang, P. Gardoni & S. Hurlebaus

Use of BWIM data for bridge assessment

M. Petschacher

Harmonic wavelet-based statistical linearization of the Bouc-Wen hysteretic model

P.D. Spanos & I.A. Kougioumtzoglou

Reliability analysis of stresses in prestressed concrete girder under service live load

E.-S. Hwang, I.-R. Paik & S.H. Nguyen

Fragility analysis for sensor fault detection of smart structures

Y. Kim & J.-W. Bai

MS_315 — The treatment of uncertainties in large-scale stochastic systems (1)

Stochastic responses of Navier-Stokes equations computed with dynamically orthogonal field equations

T.P. Sapsis & P.F.J. Lermusiaux

Seismic reliability of frame structures with non-Gaussian system properties

G. Stefanou & M. Fragiadakis

Pile settlement analysis on spatially random soil

G. Stefanou, G. Pittos & M. Papadrakakis

A response surface method for nonlinear stochastic dynamic analysis

U. Alibrandi

Estimating seismic performance uncertainty using IDA with progressive accelerogram-wise latin hypercube sampling

D. Vamvatsikos

MS_325 — The treatment of uncertainties in large-scale stochastic systems (2)

The use of homotopy WHEP algorithm for solving stochastic differential equations

M.A. El-Tawil

Efficient sensitivity analysis of complex engineering problems

T. Most

Simulation of strongly non-Gaussian stochastic vector processes using translation process theory

M.D. Shields & G. Deodatis

Computational reliability analysis of Soil-Foundation-Structure Interaction (SFSI) systems

Q. Gu, M. Barbato & J.P. Conte

MS_213 — Uncertainty and imprecision in geotechnical and structural engineering (1)

Error proneness in construction

F. Knoll

The role of uncertainty in the political process for risk investment decisions

H. Bonstrom, R. Corotis & K. Porter

Evaluation of the safety criteria of Brazilian Standard NBR 6118 for slender members based on reliability analyses

F.R. Stucchi, S.H.C. Santos & R.M. Franco

Uncertainty analysis in geotechnical engineering—a comparative study of selected approaches

M. Beer, Y. Zhang, S.T. Quek & K.K. Phoon

Debris flow impact uncertainty modeling with Grey numbers

D. Proske

MS_223 — Uncertainty and imprecision in geotechnical and structural engineering (2)

Evaluation and implications of soil variability in tunneling

M. Huber, P.A. Vermeer & C. Moormann

Risks of analyses with lateral earth pressure load

P. Koudelka

Uncertainty correlation in structural performance assessment

J.-A. Goulet & I.F.C. Smith

Seismic response evaluations of ground pavement system with uncertainty

K. Nagafuchi, K. Kawano & Y. Kimura

Resolution and uncertainty analysis in Bayesian FE model updating applied to the damage assessment in a reinforced concrete beam

E. Simoen, E. Reynders, G. Lombaert & G. De Roeck

MS_233 — Uncertainty and imprecision in geotechnical and structural engineering (3)

An extension of limit state functions by parameterized probability measures

T. Fetz

On the optimal scaling of the Modified Metropolis-Hastings algorithm

K.M. Zuev, J.L. Beck & L.S. Katafygiotis

Non-specificity modeling of concrete cracking strength using possibility theory

J.J. Kim, M.M. Reda Taha & T.J. Ross

Likelihood-based representation of imprecision due to sparse point data and/or interval data

S. Sankararaman & S. Mahadevan

Response bounds for structures with interval stiffness

N. Impollonia, S. Zito, G. Muscolino & F. Saitta

MS_313 — Uncertainty and imprecision in geotechnical and structural engineering (4)

Stochastic optimal structural control

K. Marti

Risk acceptance criteria based on uncertain estimates of structural failure probabilities

S.G. Reid

Interval finite elements for nonlinear material problems

M.V. Rama Rao, R.L. Mullen & R.L. Muhanna

Reliability-based design for steel drive-in racks under forklift truck impact

H. Zhang, B.P. Gilbert & K.J.R. Rasmussen

Reliability analysis of steel scaffold shoring structures

H. Zhang, K.J.R. Rasmussen & B.R. Ellingwood

GS_111 — Uncertainty, statistics and probability (1)

Robust simulation for sensitivity analysis of catastrophe risk losses

R.J. Murnane, C.E. Taylor, T. Jagger & Z. Hu

Propagation of aleatoric uncertainty in light-frame wood shear walls

S.M.H. Shirazi & W. Pang

Shear strength variability of sandy and fine-grained soils

P. Koudelka

Correlation in probabilistic simulation

M. Vořechovský

Computational intelligence techiques with modern applications of fuzzy pattern classification

I.F. Iatan

GS_121 — Uncertainty, statistics and probability (2)

Reliability analysis of a brittle fracture due to crack instability using sequential Monte Carlo simulation

L.E. Garciano & I. Yoshida

Life-cycle assessment and uncertainty in modelling: Introduction of a possible “aid” index

E. Garavaglia

Mechanical characterisation of lacustrine clay by interpreting spatial variability in CPTU measurements

G. Vessia, F. Casini & S. Springman

Dynamic response variability of a small span bridge for high speed rail traffic

J. Rocha, A.A. Henriques & R. Calçada

### Biography

Michael Faber, Jochen Koehler, Kazuyoshi Nishijima,