Biosecurity A Systems Perspective

Introductory chapters

Foreword

Author: Rob Delane

1. Introduction

Edith Arndt, Susan M Hester, Evelyn Mannix, Andrew P Robinson, Raphaël Trouvé, Lucie M Bland

2. Biosecurity systems and international regulations

Lucie M Bland, Edith Arndt, Allan Mooney, Karen Schneider, Susan M Hester^,

Summary

Introduction

International regulations for biosecurity

Biosecurity activities

Biosecurity as a complex system

In a nutshell

References

Section 1 Pre-border

3. Anticipate: Assessing biosecurity risks pre-border

Susan M Hester, Sana Bau, Lucie M Bland

Introduction

Risk assessment and risk analysis

Risk analysis and international trade

Qualitative and semi-quantitative risk assessment protocols

Common issues with qualitative and semi-quantitative risk assessment protocols

Quantitative estimation of likelihoods and consequences

Discussion

In a nutshell

References

4. Prevent: Aligning border surveillance with pre-border intervention

Anthony Rossiter and Susan M Hester^,

Introduction

Regulatory models for biosecurity interventions

Economic implications of regulatory models

Operationalising risk-based and incentive regulation

Discussion

In a nutshell

References

Section 2 Border

5. Screen: Designing sampling schemes for border inspection

Raphaël Trouvé, Lucie M Bland, Mark J Ducey, Susan M Hester^, and Andrew P Robinson

Introduction

Design-based inference

Enhanced sampling methodologies

Adaptive inspection schemes

Tolerating leakage

In a nutshell

References

Section 3 Post-border

6. Detect: Designing post-border surveillance schemes

James S Camac

Introduction

Objectives of post-border surveillance

Types of post-border surveillance

Practical considerations in post-border surveillance

Value for money in surveillance planning

In a nutshell

References

7. Prepare, respond and recover: Selecting immediate and long-term strategies to manage invasions

Susan M Hester^, and Lucie M Bland

Introduction

Emergency response strategies

Long-term response strategies

Practical considerations for post-border responses

In a nutshell

References

Section 4 Whole of System

8. Incentives: Incorporating incentives into biosecurity policies and regulations

Gary Stoneham, Susan M Hester^,, Arthur Campbell

Introduction

Designing markets for biosecurity risk

Creating standalone incentives

In a nutshell

References

9. Resource allocation: Using economic principles to prioritise projects and allocate biosecurity budgets

Lucie M Bland, Christine Li, Long Chu, Hoa-Thi-Minh Nguyen, Tom Kompas, Susan M Hester^,

Introduction

Information underpinning resource allocation

Resource allocation methods

Selecting a resource allocation method to achieve economic efficiency

Barriers and opportunities for cost-efficient resource allocation in biosecurity

In a nutshell

References

10. Monitoring, evaluation, and reporting: Assessing the performance of biosecurity programs

Edith Arndt

Introduction

Monitoring, evaluation, and reporting in the planning cycle

Elements of successful monitoring, evaluation, and reporting

In a nutshell

References

11. Research uptake: Improving knowledge management in biosecurity agencies

Susan M Hester^, Edith Arndt, Jocelyn Cranefield, Les Kneebone, and Lucie M Bland

Introduction

Knowledge management in organisations

Barriers to research uptake in biosecurity

Opportunities to improve research uptake in biosecurity

Assessing and improving knowledge management with audits

In a nutshell

References

Section 5 Innovative methods

12. Elicit: Using structured elicitation in biosecurity

Sana Bau, Anca Hanea, Mark Burgman and Andrew P Robinson

Introduction

Eliciting facts in biosecurity

Eliciting values in biosecurity

Discussion

In a nutshell

References

13. Profiling and automation

Evelyn Mannix, Natasha Page, John Baumgartner, Sana Bau, Lucie M Bland, and Andrew P Robinson

Introduction

Profiling basics

Profiling cargo consignments – a simulated example

Profiling airline passengers

Automation basics

Profiling and automation in practice

In a nutshell

References

14. Map: Creating maps of establishment potential

James S Camac, Estibaliz Palma and John Baumgartner

Introduction

Developing maps of establishment likelihood

Estimating biotic suitability

Developing a pragmatic establishment likelihood map for oriental fruit fly in Australia

In a nutshell

References

Section 6 Concluding chapters

15. Conclusion

Susie M Hester, James S. Camac, Edith Arndt, Sana Bau, Evelyn Mannix, Les Kneebone, Andrew P Robinson, and Lucie M Bland

Biography

Susan M Hester is deputy CEO of the Centre of Excellence for Biosecurity Risk Analysis (CEBRA) at the University of Melbourne, and Associate Professor the UNE Business School at the University of New England. She has a PhD in Agricultural Economics from the University of New England and an Honours degree in Economics from the University of Western Australia. Susan is an applied economist and has worked almost exclusively on issues related to invasive-species management since 2002. This has largely been via her role as a Chief Investigator with CEBRA, commencing in 2009. Recent projects have involved: re-evaluating management of European wasp using biocontrol agents; understanding the value of passive surveillance, and introducing incentive-compatible policies into the Australian biosecurity system in order to maximise value for money from biosecurity budgets.

Lucie M Bland is an accomplished animal biologist. She completed a BA (Hons) in Biological Sciences from the University of Oxford, and a PhD in Ecology & Evolution from Imperial College London and London Zoo. Lucie’s research involves increasing knowledge about zoo animal biology, management, and conservation, and she also investigates the role of the wildlife trade in spreading zoonotic diseases. Lucie is also a natural health practitioner and animal lover.

Dr Edith Arndt is a research fellow specialising in biosecurity at the Centre of Excellence for Biosecurity Risk Analysis (CEBRA) at the University of Melbourne. She earned her master’s degree from the University of Vienna, and later obtained her PhD from the University of Melbourne. Within CEBRA, she engages in various biosecurity-related research projects through a collaborative co-production model alongside research partners at the Australian Government Department of Agriculture, Fisheries and Forestry. Her prior projects have encompassed a wide array of topics, including the development of an evaluation framework for Australia’s national biosecurity system, the examination of factors influencing marine vessel biofouling and its prevention and management, as well as the optimisation of resource allocation for border biosecurity risk controls. Before joining CEBRA, Edith worked within the public service sector at the state government level for nine years. Her responsibilities included monitoring, evaluation, and reporting; fire severity mapping; and database development. She has an interest in the interface between research and policy, and she actively engages in outreach activities aimed at inspiring high school students to pursue careers in the field of science.

Sana Bau is a researcher in decision science with a special interest in the use of science in environmental policy and practice. Sana has a BSc from the University of Otago and a Master of Environment at the University of Melbourne and is completing a PhD at the University of Melbourne. Sana’s other pursuits include web content creation and communications, lecturing in environmental risk assessment, and fashion and textiles.

Evelyn Mannix is currently a research fellow at the Centre of Excellence for Biosecurity Risk Analysis, working on solving biosecurity challenges using the latest deep learning and AI approaches. They received their honours degree from the Australian National University with a university medal, and worked for several years at the Australian Bureau of Agricultural and Resource Economics and Sciences as a research officer, applying mathematical models to address biosecurity risks. They are currently undertaking a PhD at the University of Melbourne, with the Melbourne Centre for Data Science.

James S Camac is a Senior Research Fellow and Chief Investigator within the Centre of Excellence for Biosecurity Risk Analysis (CEBRA). As a trained quantitative and applied ecologist he has extensive experience in field ecology, long-term ecological monitoring, experimental design, ecological statistics, reproducible data science, biosecurity risk analysis and project management. His research tackles problems in two broad areas: understanding and forecasting changes in biodiversity, especially under climate change and changing fire regimes; and enhancing post-border surveillance networks to protect Australia’s environmental, social and economic values from exotic pests and diseases.

Raphaël Trouvé is a research fellow in forest ecology and statistical modelling at the University of Melbourne. He received a master and PhD in forest sciences from AgroParisTech. Raphaël develops and applies quantitative methods to solve environmental problems, with applications to forest conservation and management and biosecurity.

Andrew P Robinson is CEO of the Centre of Excellence for Biosecurity Risk Analysis (CEBRA), and Professor in applied statistics at the University of Melbourne. He has a PhD in Forestry and a Masters in Statistics from the University of Minnesota, and has published four books, ninety research articles, and fifty ACERA/CEBRA technical reports on various aspects of risk analysis and biosecurity. He is an elected member of the International Statistical Institute. He joined the University of Melbourne in 2005 from the University of Idaho, where he was associate professor in forest inventory and forest biometrics. Andrew spends much of his time thinking about biosecurity at national borders, including analyzing inspection and interception data using statistical tools, designing and trialling inspection surveillance systems, developing metrics by which regulatory inspectorates can assess their performance, and discussing all of the above with, and indeed at, interested parties.

"An edited collection that distils over a decade's worth of research from the Australian Centre of Excellence for Biosecurity Risk Analysis, Biosecurity makes a compelling case that biosecurity must be designed, governed, and evaluated as a whole system rather than a set of isolated projects. The editors structure the material logically across the preborder, border, and postborder continuum, explicitly integrating economic efficiency, institutional capacity, and behavioral factors.

The volume is particularly useful for practitioners because the text offers valuable guidance in designing robust biosecurity systems that include mapping the system (e.g., actors, flows, leverage points), identifying bottlenecks (e.g., weak import screening, under resourced local surveillance), and prioritizing high-return interventions (e.g., pathway management) supported by sustained financing and clear accountability. A key message is that biosecurity operates amid uncertainty and rapid change, so programs need feedback loops that provide real-time evaluation of system performance. The editors warn that systems thinking can drift into abstraction unless anchored to operational tools. They offer some anchors, such as risk assessment frameworks, scenario planning, and multicriteria decision analysis that will help translate strategy into implementable designs and metrics. These are the necessary elements of scaffolding that will keep incentives aligned with prevention and rapid response rather than drifting into sporadic, project-based activities. Set against the backdrop of Australia and New Zealand's comparatively strong biosecurity legislation, governance, and coinvestment by government and industry, the book is exemplary, though readers in less‑resourced settings will need to adapt its framework to their institutional realities."

Philip E. Hulme, Conservation Biology, 24 March 2026