Foresight for Organizations will acquaint the reader with various foresight methods and tools, to show the reader how these methods are used, what the pitfalls are and how the methods relate to each other. This innovative volume offers the reader the ability to carry out a study of the future by him- or herself and apply the results in a decision-making strategy process.
The author addresses the following methods: scenarios, trend analysis, the Delphi method, quantitative trend extrapolation, technology assessment, backcasting and roadmapping; the most relevant and popular methods that also cover the range of approaches from predictive, via normative to explorative. Every chapter also contains references to additional literature about the methods being discussed.
This book is essential reading for researchers, academics and students in the areas of Community Development, Sociology of organizations, Change management, Social entrepreneurship, Sustainable development and participative planning.
Table of Contents
1. Introduction (Patrick van der Duin) 2. Developing Scenarios (Jan Nekkers) 3. Trend Analysis (Tessa Cramer, Patrick van der Duin & Christianne Heselmans) 4. The Delphi Method (Vincent Marchau and Erik van de Linde) 5. Technological Forecasting (Scott Cunningham and Jan Kwakkel) 6. Technology Assessment (Karel Mulder) 7. Backcasting (Jacco Quist) 8. Roadmapping (Ben Römgens) 9. Interviews (Johan den Hartog) 10. Workshops (Henk-Jan van Alphen) 11. The Future Recycled: Meta-analysis for foresight (Patrick van der Duin and Susan van ’t Klooster) 12. The Acceleration Method (Bram Castelein) 13. Creativity in Foresight. Seven exercises (Saskia Bol) 14. Foresight and Creativity (René Hartman) 15. Stakeholder Analysis (Eefje Cuppen) 16. Causal Loop Diagramming (Kim van Oorschot) 17. Beyond Visualization: Experiencing the future (Nik Baerten)
Patrick van der Duin is Assistant Professor at Delft University of Technology, Faculty of Technology, Policy and Management, the Netherlands, and Associate Professor of Futures Research and Trendwatching at Fontys Academy for Creative Industries, the Netherlands.