Principles of Risk Analysis : Decision Making Under Uncertainty book cover
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2nd Edition

Principles of Risk Analysis
Decision Making Under Uncertainty




ISBN 9781138478206
Published February 11, 2019 by CRC Press
816 Pages 267 B/W Illustrations

 
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Book Description

In every decision problem there are things we know and things we do not know. Risk analysis science uses the best available evidence to assess what we know while it is carefully intentional in the way it addresses the importance of the things we do not know in the evaluation of decision choices and decision outcomes. The field of risk analysis science continues to expand and grow and the second edition of Principles of Risk Analysis: Decision Making Under Uncertainty responds to this evolution with several significant changes.  The language has been updated and expanded throughout the text and the book features several new areas of expansion including five new chapters. The book’s simple and straightforward style—based on the author’s decades of experience as a risk analyst, trainer, and educator—strips away the mysterious aura that often accompanies risk analysis.

Features:

  • Details the tasks of risk management, risk assessment, and risk communication in a straightforward, conceptual manner
  • Provides sufficient detail to empower professionals in any discipline to become risk practitioners
  • Expands the risk management emphasis with a new chapter to serve private industry and a growing public sector interest in the growing practice of enterprise risk management
  • Describes dozens of quantitative and qualitative risk assessment tools in a new chapter
  • Practical guidance and ideas for using risk science to improve decisions and their outcomes is found in a new chapter on decision making under uncertainty
  • Practical methods for helping risk professionals to tell their risk story are the focus of a new chapter
  • Features an expanded set of examples of the risk process that demonstrate the growing applications of risk analysis

As before, this book continues to appeal to professionals who want to learn and apply risk science in their own professions as well as students preparing for professional careers. This book remains a discipline free guide to the principles of risk analysis that is accessible to all interested practitioners.

Files used in the creation of this book and additional exercises as well as a free student version of Palisade Corporation’s Decision Tools Suite software are available with the purchase of this book.

A less detailed introduction to the risk analysis science tasks of risk management, risk assessment, and risk communication is found in Primer of Risk Analysis: Decision Making Under Uncertainty, Second Edition, ISBN: 978-1-138-31228-9.

Table of Contents

Preface

About the Author

Chapter 1 The Basics

Chapter 2 Uncertainty

Chapter 3 Risk Management

Chapter 4 Risk Assessment

Chapter 5 Risk Communication

Chapter 6 Enterprise Risk Management

Chapter 7 Problem Identification for Risk Management

Chapter 8 Brainstorming

Chapter 9 Economics of Risk Management

Chapter 10 Risk Assessor’s Toolbox

Chapter 11 The Art and Practice of Risk Assessment Modeling

Chapter 12 Probability Review

Chapter 13 Choosing a Probability Distribution

Chapter 14 Characterizing Uncertainty through Expert Elicitation

Chapter 15 Monte Carlo Process

Chapter 16 Probabilistic Scenario Analysis

Chapter 17 Sensitivity Analysis

Chapter 18 Presenting and Using Assessment Results

Chapter 19 Decision Making Under Uncertainty

Chapter 20 Message Development

Chapter 21 Telling Your Story

Chapter 22 Example Applications

Appendix A: Using Palisade’s DecisionTools® Suite

Index

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Author(s)

Biography

Charles Yoe, PhD is a professor of economics at Notre Dame of Maryland University, Baltimore, U.S.A., and an independent risk analysis consultant and trainer. Working extensively for U.S. and other government agencies as a consultant and risk analyst, his wide range of risk experience includes international trade, food safety, natural disasters, public works, homeland security, ecosystem restoration, resource development, navigation, planning, and water resources. As a consultant to private industry, his work includes a discrete but wide variety of concerns. He has trained professionals from more than one hundred countries in risk analysis and conducted customized risk training programs for government agencies and private industry in over two dozen nations.

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Charles Yoe

Professor of Economics, Notre Dame of Maryland University
Baltimore, Maryland, USA

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