In every decision problem there are things we know and things we do not know. Risk analysis science uses the best available evidence to assess what we know while it is carefully intentional in the way it addresses the importance of the things we do not know in the evaluation of decision choices and decision outcomes. The field of risk analysis science continues to expand and grow and the second edition of Principles of Risk Analysis: Decision Making Under Uncertainty responds to this evolution with several significant changes. The language has been updated and expanded throughout the text and the book features several new areas of expansion including five new chapters. The book’s simple and straightforward style—based on the author’s decades of experience as a risk analyst, trainer, and educator—strips away the mysterious aura that often accompanies risk analysis.
- Details the tasks of risk management, risk assessment, and risk communication in a straightforward, conceptual manner
- Provides sufficient detail to empower professionals in any discipline to become risk practitioners
- Expands the risk management emphasis with a new chapter to serve private industry and a growing public sector interest in the growing practice of enterprise risk management
- Describes dozens of quantitative and qualitative risk assessment tools in a new chapter
- Practical guidance and ideas for using risk science to improve decisions and their outcomes is found in a new chapter on decision making under uncertainty
- Practical methods for helping risk professionals to tell their risk story are the focus of a new chapter
- Features an expanded set of examples of the risk process that demonstrate the growing applications of risk analysis
As before, this book continues to appeal to professionals who want to learn and apply risk science in their own professions as well as students preparing for professional careers. This book remains a discipline free guide to the principles of risk analysis that is accessible to all interested practitioners.
Files used in the creation of this book and additional exercises as well as a free student version of Palisade Corporation’s Decision Tools Suite software are available with the purchase of this book.
A less detailed introduction to the risk analysis science tasks of risk management, risk assessment, and risk communication is found in Primer of Risk Analysis: Decision Making Under Uncertainty, Second Edition, ISBN: 978-1-138-31228-9.
Table of Contents
About the Author
Chapter 1 The Basics
Chapter 2 Uncertainty
Chapter 3 Risk Management
Chapter 4 Risk Assessment
Chapter 5 Risk Communication
Chapter 6 Enterprise Risk Management
Chapter 7 Problem Identification for Risk Management
Chapter 8 Brainstorming
Chapter 9 Economics of Risk Management
Chapter 10 Risk Assessor’s Toolbox
Chapter 11 The Art and Practice of Risk Assessment Modeling
Chapter 12 Probability Review
Chapter 13 Choosing a Probability Distribution
Chapter 14 Characterizing Uncertainty through Expert Elicitation
Chapter 15 Monte Carlo Process
Chapter 16 Probabilistic Scenario Analysis
Chapter 17 Sensitivity Analysis
Chapter 18 Presenting and Using Assessment Results
Chapter 19 Decision Making Under Uncertainty
Chapter 20 Message Development
Chapter 21 Telling Your Story
Chapter 22 Example Applications
Appendix A: Using Palisade’s DecisionTools® Suite
Charles Yoe, PhD is a professor of economics at Notre Dame of Maryland University, Baltimore, U.S.A., and an independent risk analysis consultant and trainer. Working extensively for U.S. and other government agencies as a consultant and risk analyst, his wide range of risk experience includes international trade, food safety, natural disasters, public works, homeland security, ecosystem restoration, resource development, navigation, planning, and water resources. As a consultant to private industry, his work includes a discrete but wide variety of concerns. He has trained professionals from more than one hundred countries in risk analysis and conducted customized risk training programs for government agencies and private industry in over two dozen nations.